10/25 live tough decision 200bb deep

[ezmogee]

Hey guys:

I don't post a ton here, but Gaucho (dlpnyc) was at my table when I played this hand and encouraged me to come post it on 2+2. Maybe this is standard, I dunno, but I thought I was faced with a pretty tough turn decision.

Villain in this hand is a pretty interesting player. I'd say he plays full ring at around 50/20. He will almost always raise in position when there are limpers and will raise limpers liberally out of the blinds. He will also call almost any 2 suited cards to any raise in late position. As far as I can tell, he is a loser in the game. I've seen him book 30-60k wins, but seen him lose that amount too even when only buying in for 3-5k at a time. He is prone to mega, mega tilt, but tonight does not seem to be on mega-tilt. That said, he IS losing. I'd guess he'd down around 5k, maybe a bit more.

We do have a fair amount of history together. I believe he thinks I'm a bit weak and pretty straightforward. That said, he also knows that when I'm putting in a lot of money, I've got the goods. This has allowed me to successfully bluff him off a couple of big pots in the past, but he's also taken some pots away from me when I came out betting weak or checking turns/rivers out of position.

This player also loves to take stabs but is definitely capable of giving up on later streets if he senses he's crushed. I'd say he's about 28, works in Finance, and probably makes 250k+ a year so the actual money is not an issue.

On to the hand...10 handed. I start the hand with $5,200. Villain covers.

A couple of limpers in mid-late position. Villain raises the SB to $250. I call in the BB with Kd Td. Please no "fold preflop comments." I'm getting 20:1 vs someone who I know will pay off and can bluff huge if I flop big. I also expect to get a couple of calls behind me. These pots generally go 4 ways or more. I only get 1 caller behind me.

FLOP: Th 8h 7d

Villain leads out for $700 into $800. I think for a few seconds and call. Caller behind me folds. I look at villain and do not pick up any physical tells, though he seems to be pretty interested in the next card.

Turn (8d) : Th 8h 8d 7d

I pick up a diamond flush draw to go along with my TP2K. Villain thinks and leads out for $2,000. I have $4,300 remaining.

I am really confused by this turn bet. The 8d has to be a really scary card for him as an 8 is definately in my flop call drawing range. The bet just seems odd to me. He appears to be committing himself to the pot here with his bet, but that can be so many different things. He could have hearts, pair + straight draw. He could conceivably also have the 8 (though it's definitely unlikely).

I guess I'm just confused why he's full potting it here (2,000 into $2,200). And even if he has JJ or QQ, I'm getting a solid 2:1 on my money here not to mention the times he shows up with AhKh or even T9, 9x (not our of the question), QT, JT, etc.

I wish I had 7 or 8k to start the hand, because turn is such a scary card that I know I could get him to fold an overpair with my image. That said, I still think I'm ahead enough of the time here. So, I shove.

Thoughts?

[danzasmack]

high five!

[KRANTZ]

ezraaaaaaaaaaaaa

i like it i don't see how else you could play this vs villain you described

[Steem_Machine]

Looks good

[dlpnyc21]

i was there during this hand, and keep in mind given this betting sequence, villian has a very low chance (maybe 5-10%max) of outright "bluffing" here, meaning he has at least a draw, pair+draw type hand. I would estimate ezmogee's FE as very low here, if that matters.

dlpnyc21

[ezmogee]

he obv has something, but if he has hearts, his hand likely includes a King which increases my equity substantially as the king is no good.

If he has a straight draw, my diamonds counterfeit a lot of outs. I just seem to have a lot of equity here vs his range.

[AcidKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
he obv has something, but if he has hearts, his hand likely includes a King which increases my equity substantially as the king is no good.

If he has a straight draw, my diamonds counterfeit a lot of outs. I just seem to have a lot of equity here vs his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this is true then go ahead and push. You have outs if you're behind as any K, T or diamond should be a winner for you.

Also, if he is drawing, this is your best chance to get all of his chips into the pot.

[cts]

super standard

[TheWorstPlayer]

You know he's calling so I kinda like call and see what happens on the river but maybe that's just me. The only way calling can hurt you, assuming he's calling a push every time on the turn, is if he would have called with a worse hand on the turn but c/f's the river (i.e. he has a missed draw). But he will probably just shove a missed draw anyways on the river, so I think calling on the turn just gives you another chance to make a good play on the river depending on the card and his action. I dont see the reason for shoving, even though I agree that you have good equity against his range.

[howzit]

ezra, spoke w/dlp about hte SB and it was who i thought it was.


he puts in a lot of money when he's ahead. you should know this. i think you're beat. your range includes an eight, yet he bluffs at it. that is very scary. also, you know that this particular player doesn't bet pot and then fold to a all-in raise getting 49823:1 so you pretty much know he's going to go with his hand every time. .. meaning he's not bluffing.

[ QUOTE ]
Please no "fold preflop comments." I'm getting 20:1 vs someone who I know will pay off and can bluff huge if I flop big.

[/ QUOTE ]
my view of him is the exact opposite. He will stop running a bluff, especially out of position. and that guy didn' pay me when i flopped big, he paid me when I made thin value bets. for this reason, preflop could be fold and not the "standard live-play" operating procedure that takes place in the city. but preflop whatever. . .