top boat scary river 4/8 live

[AlienBoy]

Sitting here at Commerce 4/8 - here's a hand that just came up:

(posted from my iPhone sorry for typos)

I'm UTG with AKo and I raise. 2 callers 2 folds 2 more callers sb folds bb calls.

13 SB

FLOP: A Q A

I bet out, 4 callers (lol Commercaments)

TURN: Q

I bet, mp1 calls and co calls

RIVER: Q

I ?????



AB

[One Outer]

Well, there are two people that called on the turn. Is there any value in this at all? Maybe someone will call with nothing and hope to chop. They certainly won't bet with nothing and hope to take it down.

I think you get called by nothing hoping to chop way more often than the Q is out. So I guess bet/call.

[Yepitis]

Ya, I think it is a pretty easy vaule bet, not a whole lot different then betting out with a small set that turns into a small boat.

Besides, how often do you get to pay off quads anyway?

[AlienBoy]

i forgot to mention reads

Mp1 is typical player semi loose and semi aggressive. CO in this hand a total calling station.



NOW: for the record I did bet out here. How many of you fold to a raise from mp1????

AB

[Niediam]

Not betting is bad.

Folding to a raise is terrible.

[AlienBoy]

okay - thanks - just checking my line here...


RESULTS IN WHITE:
<font color="white">
I bet river, mp1 raised, cold called two, and I made the crying call. Despite the fact every fiber in me was telling me im beat.

Mp1 flipped over the case Q</font>

[elindauer]

On an AAQQ board, there are four key cards. You hold one of them.

When you bet and get two callers, any reasonable hand reading would suggest that two of the remaining three key cards are out against you. When the river brings the case key card, you practically know exactly what your opponents (should) hold. You are up against the case ace and the case queen.

How can you possibly bet? I suspect that your hand range contains only Ax and AQ. Since you hold Ax, you hold the worst hand in your range. From a game theory POV, your play is to check, and then fold to a bet some small fraction of the time, calling the rest.

So, that's the "default" play. How do you adjust that given what you know about your opponents?

Well, if you want to take advantage of them being overly loose, you can still check, and then always call 1 bet. Your plan is to let the case ace bet for you, and hope to get a call from a weak hand. Fold if it's two cold back to you, since you are calling for half the pot and have every reason to believe that the hand being represented (the case Q) is in fact out against you.


So, to sum up. Your play is to check, call 1. Fold if it's two cold. You're basically making a game theory crying call while limiting your risk and hoping to get lucky and squeeze half a bet out of a bad player.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Not betting is bad.

Folding to a raise is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that "not betting" is the default play on this board given your hand range. So to claim that this play is "bad" suggests that you know something about the players in this hand that wasn't given in the OP. Do you?

To claim that not betting is bad, you'd have to believe that it's common for players in this game to call the river with hands you can beat. But what hands are those?? Pocket pairs were counterfeited on the turn... do we really think these players are so bad that they are calling the turn with holding 88 and playing AAQQ8 as their hand? Seems like quite a stretch to me.

I think that betting is just asking to lose more to the case Q, while almost never delivering value. Worse, you're in fact going to lose that extra bet to the case Q quite often, as this hand going down between any not-completely-idiotic opponents will virtually always have you being shown quads at showdown.

thanks,
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya, I think it is a pretty easy vaule bet, not a whole lot different then betting out with a small set that turns into a small boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range do you put your opponents on when they call the turn bet? Wouldn't a player holding a Q be very likely to have played it exactly the way your opponents have played so far?

I can't figure out why quads seem so unlikely to you guys. What else could they hold?!

-eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
NOW: for the record I did bet out here. How many of you fold to a raise from mp1????

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what the 3rd player does. If he coldcalls, then that tells you that he holds the case A and you are calling for a chop. Worse, it means that the raiser does NOT hold an ace, and he's played his hand in a way that is totally consistent with holding a Q. In that spot, you should fold, since he just isn't going to be bluffing often enough to justify your calling for half the pot.


Now, if the 3rd player folds, then I'd make a crying call hoping that MP1 was doing something stupid like raising the case ace. He's obviously not a good player no matter what he holds, so make the crying call.

-Eric