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#161
11-01-2007, 10:39 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I still don't see GT being able to get any points on the board. VT is giving up under 90 a game on the ground, and GT is coming with a third string freshman HB. Bennett hasn't done much, and the receivers aren't helping at all by dropping way too many balls. [/ QUOTE ] QFT 
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#162
11-01-2007, 11:04 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Why dont you like Chan Gailey's period... Sure it comes at a bad time of the month, but I think he has enough padding on his team to control the flow and keep it clean tonight...
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#163
11-01-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
no he needs to be pushed into the varsity grease disposal unles he beats georgia by 300.
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#164
11-03-2007, 05:23 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
If you 'discount' your projections by 75%, and use quarter-Kelly, you still get 5% of BR on Navy ML. Either you bet that or revise your projections, anything else is -EV. You may be 100% right in your analysis, so don't throw money away. [/ QUOTE ]
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#165
11-03-2007, 05:44 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you 'discount' your projections by 75%, and use quarter-Kelly, you still get 5% of BR on Navy ML. Either you bet that or revise your projections, anything else is -EV. You may be 100% right in your analysis, so go ahead and expose yourself to an ungodly amount of variance so Notre Dame can convert 3rd-and-27's. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] FYP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#166
11-03-2007, 07:21 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing. [/ QUOTE ] there a lot more texas natives betting texas than there are oklahoma natives betting OKSU (they bet OU). the talent base at texas is significantly better than that of OSU, though that is qualified somewhat by systemic changes in the NCAA provisos.. both teams are inconsistent. when better talent plays inconsistently, they may play better than they appear; when lesser talent plays inconsistently, they often play worse than they appear. it is hard to give stats their proper weight in these circumstances. when betting the big 12, i have a tendency to give more weight to the history of two teams than i might in other conferences. texas is 19-2 against OkSU, and has won the last 9 consecutive games. getting texas -3 is actually something of a bargain, in the light of these observations. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 [/ QUOTE ] Texas 38 OkSU 35. any more questions?
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#167
11-03-2007, 09:43 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
you're a moron.
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#168
11-03-2007, 10:34 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing. [/ QUOTE ] there a lot more texas natives betting texas than there are oklahoma natives betting OKSU (they bet OU). the talent base at texas is significantly better than that of OSU, though that is qualified somewhat by systemic changes in the NCAA provisos.. both teams are inconsistent. when better talent plays inconsistently, they may play better than they appear; when lesser talent plays inconsistently, they often play worse than they appear. it is hard to give stats their proper weight in these circumstances. when betting the big 12, i have a tendency to give more weight to the history of two teams than i might in other conferences. texas is 19-2 against OkSU, and has won the last 9 consecutive games. getting texas -3 is actually something of a bargain, in the light of these observations. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 [/ QUOTE ] Texas 38 OkSU 35. any more questions? [/ QUOTE ] You said -3 was a bargain, and Texas was the wrong side, regardless.
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#169
11-03-2007, 10:47 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing. [/ QUOTE ] there a lot more texas natives betting texas than there are oklahoma natives betting OKSU (they bet OU). the talent base at texas is significantly better than that of OSU, though that is qualified somewhat by systemic changes in the NCAA provisos.. both teams are inconsistent. when better talent plays inconsistently, they may play better than they appear; when lesser talent plays inconsistently, they often play worse than they appear. it is hard to give stats their proper weight in these circumstances. when betting the big 12, i have a tendency to give more weight to the history of two teams than i might in other conferences. texas is 19-2 against OkSU, and has won the last 9 consecutive games. getting texas -3 is actually something of a bargain, in the light of these observations. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 [/ QUOTE ] Texas 38 OkSU 35. any more questions? [/ QUOTE ] Way to luckbox to a push. Congrats!
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#170
11-04-2007, 12:09 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] or is there a legitimate reason for Texas to be favored here. Some injury or something that I'm missing. [/ QUOTE ] there a lot more texas natives betting texas than there are oklahoma natives betting OKSU (they bet OU). the talent base at texas is significantly better than that of OSU, though that is qualified somewhat by systemic changes in the NCAA provisos.. both teams are inconsistent. when better talent plays inconsistently, they may play better than they appear; when lesser talent plays inconsistently, they often play worse than they appear. it is hard to give stats their proper weight in these circumstances. when betting the big 12, i have a tendency to give more weight to the history of two teams than i might in other conferences. texas is 19-2 against OkSU, and has won the last 9 consecutive games. getting texas -3 is actually something of a bargain, in the light of these observations. [/ QUOTE ] I would assume your entire bankroll is on Notre Dame and their 43-game winning streak against Navy then? ND -3.5 is an amazing bargain in light of those circumstances!!!!!!11111 [/ QUOTE ] Texas 38 OkSU 35. any more questions? [/ QUOTE ] I hit a 6-unit middle, so no, I guess not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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