+EV in horseracing?

[Frogic]

So I was having a conversation with a friend of mine. It has been a running joke with us about how his dad is a HUGE degen in regard to 'playing the ponies'. This time though he says that his dad mostly plays these pick 6 carryovers, that are +ev because of the dead money. I'm just curious if there is any weight to what he is saying, since this is from the same person who said you could pick winners by how the tail of the horse is sitting before the race.

Thank you for your help,
Frogic

[Runner Runner]

The dead money, depending on how much, can provide a nice overlay. This is especially true if it's a carryover where they are going to be paying it out for sure that day (end of season). The variance is obviously huge though since there are so many combinations available on a pick 6.

[thelyingthief]

a) some handicappers make body language a major component of their analysis, and how the tail, the ears, the neck, and the gait appear can point to a ready horse or a unfit, unhappy horse. so, your friend's dad may be able to do this. it is not impossible.

b) much of my money every year comes from horseracing. this year, from middle april through late july i made 75k betting primarily to win. some players, and cartels of players, make the pick six the center piece of their investments. several of my acquaintance make comfortable livings pursuing the wager.

so, yes, there is positive expectation in the game.

-tlt

[Bishop22]

[ QUOTE ]
a) some handicappers make body language a major component of their analysis, and how the tail, the ears, the neck, and the gait appear can point to a ready horse or a unfit, unhappy horse. so, your friend's dad may be able to do this. it is not impossible.

b) much of my money every year comes from horseracing. this year, from middle april through late july i made 75k betting primarily to win. some players, and cartels of players, make the pick six the center piece of their investments. several of my acquaintance make comfortable livings pursuing the wager.



[/ QUOTE ]

Finding it hard to believe those two statements came from the same person but anyway...what is your handicapping method? Do you use data files? and where are you betting these days?

[thelyingthief]

i use an energy/velocity modeling methodology, combined with data-mining. past performance patterns and data, race conditions, and training patterns are the areas i focus on most in my data analysis. i use a multi-wager money management strategy. i accept a lowered expectation per bet, (since i am guaranteed more losing tickets) in favor of a higher win percentage and increased velocity of money--more money bet per wager.

i would not call myself a handicapper, per se, since i do not evaluate horses against one another, but against my models. i narrow the average to above average sized field (8-10) to 1, 2, or 3 horses in 85% of the cases. i largely ignore randomness, the opposite pole from the handicapping world. by this i mean, i accept as a natural course of things, fluctuations in the effectiveness of my models. i do not change anything without overwhelming evidence that the bias has changed, or a new training method is gaining favor. racing offers a much more stable statistical base than does football, for instance.

yes, i use data files, from drf. others are as good or better, but i am comfortable with the drf format. i use SQL server, with an access front end for maintaining the data.

where am i betting? do you mean, which tracks? i do woodbine in the summer--which means, given the small mutuel pools, i have to wager off-shore to avoid limitations in my bet size. i play santa anita in the winter, and the mutuel pools there can absorb a 10k bet on a 3 to 1 shot without too much indigestion, so i am not constrained to use offshore book type shops to maintain my profit margin. i live in fear of losing my stake when playing those places. i also bet some sprints at the fairgrounds, a louisiana track, in the winter. some days there aren't enough races for which i have well defined models, especially at SA, so i have branched out. i focus on these tracks because of their difficulty; i want to cash tickets on big priced horses regularly, 30, 40, 50, and 60 dollar horses; and i want to see these prices based on competivity of the horse population, not because of drugs and/or lame horses, whose form cycles are unidentifiable.

there are other methods and approaches than the one i use, of course. joe takach is a body language guru who makes some money betting how tails flop, though his variance is larger than i find comfortable. he sells video and books on the method. with body language, as with pace methods, you really have to know your horse population very, very well; ears pricked can mean very different things, depending on the animal. as with all the other methods, though, you can't dabble: you really need to become an expert, or you're doomed.

many people view the imposts on horse wagering as impossible to overcome; and without a methodology that is based on criteria and approaches not widely accepted, AND a comfortable fit with your psychology, it really is tough. on the other hand, when you DO have such an approach, you can experience landslide profits.

-tlt

p.s. i have answered your question in good faith. if you don't believe me, or question my integrity, fine, you have that right, absolutely. but please, i just spent a portion of my life giving you an answer, i don't need to hear some vile, ugly series of belittling comments and classless attacks. have some measure of respect that i answered, if not the answer i have given.