Stud8 - Well hidden kings up, reraise?

[roggles]

I realize that in all hands that I wonder about here I play way too weak. I guess this limits the amount of money I win by a lot. When I don't feel sure, I just don't want to bet into a better hand.

Villain is a good regular, quite aggressive, plays good hands and seems to know what hands to play and how quite well (unlike me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).

I feel up until 6th street I have played this hand very well. He probably puts me on something like jacks up with a small pair. It seems likely that he simply has queens up. Is this a definite reraise on sixth? I mean, this is the whole situation I tried to get myself in by slowplaying, so why am I not popping the sucker? What about 7th?

7 Card Stud High-Low ($2/$4), Ante $0,40, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.10 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.10 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

River - (9.10 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (11.10 BB - $44,40)

[wheatrich]

I'd probably raise fourth and probably play the rest the same way--he's either got queens up or he's got you beat on sixth. Depends on how sure you are he's got that hand. Sounds like you're answering your own question though. I probably don't reraise sixth just because of the possibility he's got something like Ah 2h Qh and just backdoored the wheel/low (unless I'm pretty sure it's Q's up of course).

edit--I'd probably reraise third even to try to get it HU with the Q as the K's in the hole are well disguised given that I'd do that with other 2 type hands.

[xxeximusxx]

i'd just call, i see you getting scooped more or freerolled by a hand like Q26s, A2Q, or 67Q than scooping vs queens up

[roggles]

Wow, you guys are pessimistic. I think giving him AxQ suited, which is a hand he possibly might raise with in EP, is really looking for hands that beat me. I really doubt he'd raise with two babies in the hole unless they are suited with hearts. I feel fairly confident he is on a high.

wheatrich: I'm not a fan of reraising third because I think it makes the hand harder to play later for me, and I also really doubt the 7 guy will fold. Players at this level will call anything on 3rd with any 3 low cards

[RustyBrooks]

I think putting him on queens up is probably overly *optimistic* since it means he can't have a low (yet) and you are hoping to scoop. It's possible but I would not be surprised if he was freerolling here.

If he does have Qs up and an unpaired low card, why would you raise 6th? There's a decent chance he'll make his low (2, 6, 7, 8) and you'll split, and he has a decent number of outs to beat you for the high, especially if he has an A down (A, 2, Q, whatever is 2nd pair is).

[RustyBrooks]

And, he might even have 2 clubs. Are you a favorite against the range of hands he could have here? How far ahead are you if he has Qs and 5s with an A down?

[roggles]

I would be surprised if he is freerolling. I don't see any hand he'd raise on 3rd with two babies except Qxx suited.

I would think that I am favorite to all the non-made low hands you listed, am I wrong?

On the other hand, you have convinced me that even if I raise I might not be that comfortable leading out on the river. So calling and expecting to call a bet on the river puts as much money in the middle. So I guess I also think I should just call.

[RustyBrooks]

If he has Qs up with an A down, he'll

* win low 14/40 times - that's 35% for 17.5% equity
* win high 17.5% of the time - that's 10% equity (some of these times he'll win both but it's the same thing because you've no low)

That's 35% - which in that case makes you a favorite. But I think almost all other hands he could have have you dominated for high. He can't have a straight here, or trip queens?

Or if he also has a club draw that adds another 17.5% to his equity and you're the underdog.

I have to admit I don't know a lot about stud/8 so maybe I've made some mistakes in reasoning or math.

[2461Badugi]

Qs up and a low draw is an impossible hand.

[RustyBrooks]

Er, yeah, you're right. I actually knew that when I started to reply and lost sight of it by the end.

Edit: unless he has an A, a 5 and a Q down. DID YOU CONSIDER THAT??