Week 4 NCAA early lines thread

[pirateboy]

Eyeballing ECU

[bills217]

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eyeballing Marshall +23

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On it, was eyeballing it myself.

I have an awesome slate this week.

[pirateboy]

Marshall did get beat by New Hampshire by 13 at home. UNH was 9-4 last year in 1-AA.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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POTW: Indiana +3 v Illinois bet 3.3u to win 3u


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Ok...I'll give my thinking behind the POTW since many have requested it

for background:
last year's game was a 34-32 Hoosier win at Illinois
Illinois ran for 209 yds on 38 carries (5.5ypc) and was 11 of 22 for 217 yards. Indiana had 149 yards rushing on 33 carries (4.5 ypc) and was 20 of 41 for 240 yards. The turnover battle was even. Indiana had a huge, momentum changing kick return for a TD. Both teams return the core of those teams. Illinois has the biggest addition with Arrelious Benn at wideout.

did they favor the wrong team here?


Both teams play a shotgun spread that mimics the attack Vince Young used at Texas or what Dixon at Oregon does now.
They'll be mirrors with Juice-Mendenhall-Benn matching up v Lewis-Thigpen-Hardy.

So far, Illinois offense still isn't that good and is very predictable. Juice just hasn't developed so far. He doesn't make the touch passes yet. It seems half the play calls are little short swing passes to develop Juice's confidence. Illinois will likely be very, very run based (not one-dimensional, but a strong lean). Indiana, OTOH, is a dual-threat offense. Kellen Lewis is like a mature Juice that can pass with touch despite being the same class and not as well known.

Illinois' defense is better than Indiana. Indiana's D struggled all of last year (32.8 ppg) and has not looked super imposing against a weak schedule thus far. However, the difference isn't as much as Illinois struggles when out in space. Mizzou did put up 40 on Illinois (well...26 taking out the special teams and defensive td) and 423 yards as well.

So, breaking down all this, I have it even. Illinois' slightly better defense is mitigated by being spread out and the more legitimate passing threat the Hoosiers have. By balancing it out, Indiana is more likely to handle 3rd and long situations better, making them more likely to win the turnover battle.

The difference between the two, and why I think Indiana should be favored, is the special teams. Illinois was dreadful last year and does not look to have improved at all. The Illini are #112 in net punting this season (Indiana is middle of the pace at #64). Illinois has already allowed returns for TDs. Illinois has already fumbled multiple returns themselves. Indiana averages a few more yards in both punt and kickoff returns.

I expect a very entertaining game for tv viewers. Trust me, you'll enjoy watching this game if you don't have a side and don't care that neither is a top20 team. However, it should be Indiana as a two or three point favorite at home.


EDIT: Oh yeah...why is Illinois favored? It's key to know this as it shows why the line can truly be off. Illinois has looked very impressive in losing to name or ranked teams.
This year, Illinois lost 40-34 v Mizzou with a back-up QB (nevermind the offense looked like dog poo with the starter in the game).
Last year, Illinois lost 24-7 to Iowa as +21
won at MSU 23-20 as +26
lost at Penn St 26-12 as +18 in a game that they had a great chance of winning into the fourth and outgained PSU 358-184
last at Wisconsin 30-24 as +21.5 in a game they had a 21-3 lead and were a missed wideopen td pass away from opening a double digit lead late
lost v Ohio State 17-10 as a 24 point dog

People see Illinois competing with much better teams and think they are great. What they forget is Illinois is a young team that often plays to the level of the competition. Also from last season
31-21 loss v Syracuse as a 3 point fave
34-32 loss v Indiana as a 8.5 point fave
20-17 loss v Ohio as a 6 point fave
42-31 loss v Purdue as a 3 point fave
27-16 loss @ N'western as a 2.5 point fave



maybe the tide has changed with the win and cover at Syracuse last week

However, I equate that more to Syracuse being a very, very pathetic squad that played a base offense that the Illinois D is built to stop (think of the Illini D like the Michigan D---will stop old school offenses, but struggles verse modern ones)

The love of the 'close losses' v name schools is leading to overrating IMO.

[iggymcfly]

Good stuff on Illinois/Indiana MyTurn. I'll be following this week for sure.

Anyway, one more line I saw that looks a little off is Maryland +3.5 at Wake Forest. I think Wake's still coasting a little bit off of their ACC championship last year that they got a ton of luck to win, while Maryland's probably being a little undervalued after their high-profile loss to WVU last Thursday. I definitely think Maryland is the better team on a neutral field.

[dmoney416]

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eyeballing Marshall +23

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On it, was eyeballing it myself.

I have an awesome slate this week.

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Here is my thoughts on this one:

Marshall at Cincinnati (-22)

The Cincinnati Bearcats' hype machine grew a little bit on Saturday, as they walked into Miami OH and thrashed the Redhawks, 47-10 in a game that was never really in doubt. Marshall fell to 0-3 after losing to I-AA powerhouse New Hampshire, 48-35. However, this final was deceiving. Bernard Morris did not start due to turf toe, and came in late in the first half with Marshall trailing 24-0. He was the bright spot for them as he ended up throwing 31-42 for 417 yards and 3 TDs.

"I looked back at him, and said I need you," Snyder said. "He said 'OK then, I'll go.' I just hope he's ready to go at Cincinnati (next week). He's going to be hurting tonight. Note: If Morris does not go against Cincy, my opinion of this game drastically changes.


Cincinnati has caused an astounding 17 turnovers in their first three games, and they are a ridiculous +13 in turnover margin. Is this defense that good? Yes, I believe it is. They are fast, they have some depth, they don't seem to get tired late in games, and they seem to be solid both against the run and the pass.

The offense has scored 140 points in three games. Is this offense that good? No, not even close. They are by no means a bad offense, but they are still learning the spread offense and they are not quite there yet. If you look at the box scores, you will find that the turnovers have led to scores and that the yardage discrepancies between them and their opponents is not that big (some of this is garbage yardage from the opponent, but still).

Despite three blowouts to start the season, this team still has some glaring questions. The kicking woes that were there against SEMO returned on Saturday, as Jake Rogers was only 1-3 on FGs, making a 27 yarder and then badly shanking the other two. It is clear that his 55 yarder against Oregon St. that Rogers has the leg, but the mental part of his kicking game is clearly not there yet.

Also, Ben Mauk was kept out of the Miami OH game with a "tired" shoulder. Brian Kelly said it was nothing serious, but he just had no zip on the ball. Veteran Dustin Grutza came in and did an admirable job, going 25-35 for 290 yards and 2 TDs. As of now, I have no info with what they expect to do this week. Still, one wonders if they will rest him until conference play with a perceived "easy" win coming up this week. Grutza isn't bad, and he did a great job against Miami OH, but he lacks some skills and the playbook is a bit limited with him at the helm.

Marshall doesn't run much with the RBs, which is probably a good thing for them as they would have a tough time running here anyway.

Here is what I think is the X-factor for Marshall: Morris' ability to run. He only had 40 yards on 33 carries this year, but a decent amount of those are sacks. The only running game that Cincy struggled against was SEMO's. The key to their running game was QB Victor Anderson, who went for 118 yards on 13 carries. Most of these were not designed runs, but broken plays where Cincy had concentrated their efforts on locking down the WRs in a zone scheme. The fact that Morris is able to run (assuming the turf toe does not affect him too badly) is huge in this situation.

I could see Cincy letting down here just a bit. Also, I think that their current questions at QB and K doesn't warrant them laying this kind of number. Bernard Morris also seems like he is growing, finally starting to avoid mistakes while throwing the ball well.

If Morris is at full strength, I like Marshall plus the points here. If he plays and is hobbled, I would stay away from this game, as I feel his mobility is important part of this game. If Brian Anderson gets the start, I would actually lean toward Cincinnati, as Anderson did nothing against New Hampshire and would most likely struggle mightily with Cincy's D.

If Morris plays at full strength, I think you will see a tightly contested game here with Cincy gradually pulling away in the second half. This will be a no play for me, but if you are looking at betting this game, keep a close eye on Morris' status before pulling the trigger.

Cincinnati 31
Marshall 17
(If Morris plays at full strength)

GL this week. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[dmoney416]

Oh, and my plays so far:

Georgia Tech -3 (-115) (2.875u to win 2.5)
Penn State -3 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Wisconsin -8.5 (2.2u to win 2) - D'oh!
Oklahoma -20 (2.2u to win 2)
Idaho -1 (2.2u to win 2)
East Carolina +26.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

Week 4 Leans:

Connecticut +8
North Carolina +12.5
Houston -6.5/7
Indiana +3
Central Florida -7
Oregon -16

[kdog]

Good analysis dmoney but isn't turf toe an injury that takes some time to heal? And if it's serious enough that he was going to be held out against UNH and then played it seems doubtful he'll be at full strength for this game.

[iggymcfly]

Wow, that Georgia Tech line dropped fast. It was at -5.5 when I saw it shortly after open. I think GT's definitely a play at -3. I was hesitant to bet the Jackets this week since I don't want bias to infect my plays and I was on them in both Week 1 and Week 3, but with the line that low, I'll probably end up betting it.

Anyway, the matchups are very favorable for Georgia Tech as their biggest weakness (pass defense) is one that Virginia will be completely unable to exploit. Against such great defenses as Wyoming, Duke, and North Carolina, the Cavs have gained 103, 145, and 153 yards through the air. The only game the Cavs had success offensively was when they faced an incredibly weak run defense in UNC and could pound the ball continuously. Also, I think Georgia Tech's being a little undervalued after a nationally televised beating vs. Boston College.

On the other hand, Virginia has played really well at home historically and their run defense has played fairly well too, holding Duke and North Carolina under 100 yards rushing after giving up 199 on the ground to Wyoming. I actually think the under will likely be a better play as unless the total's in the 30s, these teams will have a very hard time reaching it given the favorable defensive matchups. Still though, Georgia Tech's significantly better than anyone UVA's played this year including the Wyoming team that rolled them; I think they should definitely be getting more than a field goal. I'd forecast 20 to 24 points for Georgia Tech and 10 to 17 for Virginia.

[dmoney416]

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Good analysis dmoney but isn't turf toe an injury that takes some time to heal? And if it's serious enough that he was going to be held out against UNH and then played it seems doubtful he'll be at full strength for this game.

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I agree, it seems doubtful that he will be 100%. However, I didn't see the UNH/Marshall game and he did manage to throw for over 400 yards in just over a half (I know, turf toe doesn't exactly affect your arm), so that is pretty impressive. I'll just threw all of the possibilities in there as I am not sure how severe the injury is.