Week 2 plays/leans, week 1 recap, and Cincy/OSU news

[dmoney416]

Mods, if you would like to have this is the week 2 lines thread instead, please let me know.

Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
YTD: 5-5, +2.25u

Wanted to wait until after the Fla. St game to post. Not a great week that we all hope for when we start preparing for the season, but a winning week nevertheless. My biggest mistake was not hitting UCF and UCF ML after repeatedly saying that I would.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 wins (4.2u to win 4): L 12 -42, 0-1
Georgia Tech Over 7 (3.45u to win 3): W 33-3, 1-0
South Carolina Over 7 (2.4u to win 2): W 28-14, 1-0

Week 2 plays:

West Virginia -24 (-120) (3u to win 2.5)
Temple -3 (2.2u to win 2)
Hawaii -27.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Rutgers -13.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Bowling Green +18 (1.1u to win 1)

I will also likely be playing SJSU spread and ML if Yonus Davis is cleared to play. Keep moving that line up. Write-ups coming in a day or two on some of the games.

Current Leans:

Kent St. +13
Fresno St. +18
Western Michigan PK
North Carolina St. +13.5
Auburn -7
Ohio -1

I also get the feeling that Texas destroys TCU, but I'll likely stay away. I am sure some totals will catch my eye as well.

Also, some Cincy/OSU news:

http://www.gazettetimes.com/gtblogs/...kpatrick/?p=32

Sean Canfield will start. Morevao will play, but Riley won't say when. Strougher will practice with the first team and travel to Cincy with the team. Whether or not he will play is yet to be determined.

GL to all this week.

[dmoney416]

West Virginia (-24) at Marshall

I had the over in the WVU/WMU game this weekend, and the only thing that worried me was that WMU's defense had only given up 2.6 ypr last season. Beside losing all-everything Ameer Ismail, they returned almost the entire core of the defense. They only allowed 3 teams to rush for over 100 yards last year.

My worries were gone after the first possession. They ended up rushing for 316 yards on 45 carries (7.0 avg).

Now they go to Marshall, and I expected the line to be 28, so I was happy to take 24. Marshall allowed 4.1 ypr last season, and while they returned 7 starters coming into the spring, their top two tacklers graduated and now McClellan is gone for the year. It showed against Miami, as Graig Cooper and Javarris James had their way. They combined 201 yards on 25 carries, or 8 yards per carry. Miami ended up with 39 rushes on 251 yards (6.4 per carry).

Now, James and Cooper are nice backs, but they are no White and Slaton. In addition, Miami's backs did this with no passing game to speak of. WVU is always a threat to throw even though they are a run first team. I think that you will just see Slaton and White constantly picking up chunks of yardage in this game.

Last year, WVU won at home 42-10 as 22 point favorites. In that game, WVU ran for 312 yards on 52 carries (6 yards per carry). They were also 11-15 for 173 passing. Marshall failed to record a sack. WVU brings basically all of their relevant offensive players with the exception of WR Brandon Myles. I also beileved that Marshall D has regressed, so expect just a field day for White and Slaton.

What I also love about WVU is their depth is so great that they won't allow a backdoor opportunity. What happens when WVU is up 35 in the 4th quarter? Instead of Pat White and Steve Slaton, you get Noel Divine and Jarrett Brown. Hardly a picnic for the defense. If you look at the box score against WMU you will that they did well in limited time.

For Marshall, Bernard Morris is an athlete that can run and pass. However, some of his plays will leave you saying "wow" while others will leave you shrugging your shoulders leaving you to wonder what the hell he was thinking. He had some nice plays against Miami, but he can't seem to put a full possession together. He had 3 INTs (though not all of them were his fault), and he seems to get happy feet in the pocket.

This team seems to have no running game with the exception of Morris. He had 16 carries for 43 yards against Miami. Besides him, no one else had more than 6 carries, and they combined for 21 yards on 15 carries. Running is where Marshall had success against WVU last year, rushing for 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 ypr). However, WVU improved as the year went on, allowing only 3.0 ypc throughout the year. Without Bradshaw, this team will have no running game against WVU.

In the passing game, Morris should have some success, but it will be limited and he make his mistakes. I do expect Marshall to score in this game, it just won't be enough.

This team also seems to be undisciplined. Dropping balls and procedure penalties seemed to be the order of the day aginst Miami. Marshall had 11 penalties for 79 yards against Miami, and the majority of them were before the snap. Now, they will cut down on this since they will be at home, but it is a sign that they are having of tough time of getting cohesion on those rebuilt lines. These penalties put them is 18 3rd down situations, and they converted only 5 of them.

Anthony Binswanger punted well against Miami, with a 44 yard average on 7 punts. However, he is somehow still the kicker after a dismal 5-13 year last year. He was 1-2 on FGs against Miami and also struggled on kickoffs, never getting the ball past the 10 yard line on a kickoff. Expect good field position for WVU.

Overall, WVU's defense is not Miami, but it is more than enough to contain a one-dimensional, inconsistent Marshall offense. WVU will score at will early on, and it won't stop once the back-ups get in.

55-17 West Virginia

[dmoney416]

Add:

Akron/OSU Under 52.5 (2.2u to win 2) - Literally got this 2 minutes before it fell to 51 on the Greek. It is now 50 on BM. Write-up coming.

[dmoney416]

Akron/Ohio St. Under 52.5 (2.2u to win 2)

I had the "pleasure" of seeing some of the Army/Akron game this weekend. I had the under in that game and feel that they have put this total 3-4 points too high.

Akron was solid on defense last season, allowing 22.6 ppg and allowing only 3.4 ypr. They return their top 6 tacklers from that team and could be one of the better defenses in the MAC. This showed in their week one victory at Army. They held Army to 58 yards on 29 carries (though some of this can be attributed to sacks) and held Army to 184 yards passing on 43 attempts (4.3 ypa). One of Army's TDs came via a blocked punt with under one minute remaining. The longest play they allowed was a 20 yard pass to WR Jeremy Trimble.

As for Akron's offense, they were very conservative because of their offseason losses. Dennis Kennedy, Bryan Williams, and Alex Allen helped the team rush for 133 yards on 35 carries (3.8 yards per carry). Akron's rushing game grinds out yardage as opposed to getting big chunks. This has been Dennis Kennedy's style for a while now. The longest run was a 14 yarder by Kennedy.

The passing game was similar, with Chris Jacquemain and Carlton Jackson combining for 17-29 for 154 yards (5.3 ypa). The longest pass was a 30 yarder to Jabari Arthur, who had 125 of the 154 receiving yards. Since he seems to be Akron's only receiving threat at this point, you would think the Ohio St. will contain Arthur where Army couldn't. One of Akron's scores was a 74-yard INT return, so this offense only produced 16 points against an Army defense that was horrendous last season.

One negative for the under was the poor performance of punter John Stec, who only averaged 35.6 yards a punt on five tries. However, kicker Igor Iveljic may help the cause. He missed an extra point and while he was 3-4 on FGs, his long was 32 and he missed a 37 yarder.

Ohio St. returns 6 guys on a defense that allowed 12.8 ppg and 3.3 ypc last season. This includes five of their top seven tacklers. They shut down Youngstown St. as expected and should do the same to a depleted Akron squad. Y St. had 91 yards passing on 19 attempts (4.8 avg) and 85 yards rushing on 34 attempts (2.5 avg). No one on Y ST hit the 30 yard plateau in the rushing department.

On offense, Ohio St. losses are well documented. They have highly touted guys coming in. Ohio rushed 41 times and passed 31 times in this game and Tressel showed no signs of running up the score. I am sure he will do similar against Akron. Boeckman looked solid at QB, and I am sure that they could pull off a couple of big plays there.

I know some were expecting a big day from OSU's RBs, but it didn't happen. 41 carries for 147 yards for a 3.6 avg. Chris Wells, Maurice Wells, and Brandon Saine all split carries with Maurice Wells having the most success in limited action. All indications are that Tressel will do this again this week, which should only help the under. This system doesn't really allow any of the RBs to get into a rhythm and they will be going in cold at times.

OSU's special teams offer two good under guys. Ryan Pretorius consistently knocks kickoffs near the goalline, and AJ Trepasso was solid in limited time, averaging 46 yards a punt on two tries.

34-10 OSU.

[dmoney416]

Bowling Green (+18) at Michigan St.

I believe that this line opened at 15, which I thought was pretty reasonable. Both teams surpassed expectations last week, with Bowling Green beating Minnesota outright and Michigan St. thrashing a hapless UAB squad. However, this line started creeping up toward 17 and 18, which I thought was too much. Give me three scores here all day.

Both of these team's performances is probably a little deceiving. UAB was even worse than expected, and Minneosta was helpless until the 4th quarter.

Michigan St.'s numbers were ridiculous against UAB. Hoyer was 14-17 for 200 yards and a TD, and the running game racked nearly 300 yards behind Caulcrick, Ringer, and Jimmerson.

The defense was solid as well. UAB had no running game to speak of, and while Hunt ended up throwing for 214 yards, much of that was in garbage time.

What I think is deceiving about this game is the 55 points. People forget that this team is still coached by Mark DAntonio. He will not run up the score on teams. This game happened to be a case of Michigan St. being so much more talented that they were able to put up points anyway. Do not expect this offensive output every week.

In his last two years at Cincinnati, they scored over 30 points exactly twice. One of these is against Eastern Kentuck in a 31-0 win, and the other is a 30-11 win over Rutgers. Granted, he will have much more offensive talent at Michigan St. But, he is still an advocator of running and hard-nosed defense as opposed to airing it out. He doesn't mind winning game 17-10.

On special teams, Mich St's punter was poor in limited action. Aaron Bates only averaged 32.3 per punt on 3 punts.

Bowling Green employed a new spread passing attack against Minnesota and it worked wonders. Tyler Sheehan was 34/51 for 388 yards and 2 TDs, and most importantly, no turnovers. They also efficient enough on the ground to keep Minny honest, rushing for 100 yards on 22 carries (4.5 per rush). What I like about this match-up is that spread offenses gave Mich St fits last season. They gave up over 200 passing yards to every team on their schedule last season with the exception on Idaho, Illinois, and Michigan. They gave up 231 yards passing per game last year, and the passing attacks of teams like Pittsburgh and Notre Dame were difficult for them to stop. Not comparing BG to those teams, but their scheme may work well here.

I have no doubts that DAntonio will improve his defense, but they were awful against the pass last season and the UAB game really does not give up any information on whether or not they have progressed in that area.

My biggest worry in this game is that BG will not be able to stop MSU's rushing attack. They gave up 4.1 ypr last season, and while they return 6 of their top 7 tacklers from last season, Minnsota's Amir Pinnix had his way last week, especially at the tail end of the game where he seemed to wear them down.

However, I feel that BG's new passing attack along with DAntonio's conservative coaching style will lead to a BG cover. At the very least, the backdoor will be open here.

31-20 MSU

[dmoney416]

Add:

Air Force/Utah Under 48.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

[dmoney416]

Ok - one more to go.

Air Force/Utah Under 48.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

Historically, these games go way over the total. Air Force won 30-26 in 2002, Utah won 45-43 in 3OTs in 2003, Utah won 49-35 in 2004, Air Force won 38-35 in 2005. However, these were during the Alex Smith/Urban Meyer days where they put up tons of points.

Last year though, Utah won in a 17-14 game where both running offenses were shut down. Air Force was held to 116 yards on 41 carries (2.8 avg) and Utah was held to 119 yards on 35 carries (3.4 avg). The passing games did the damage.

Utah averaged 28 ppg last season with Brett Ratliff leading the way. They lost him to graduation this year, but with Brian Johnson coming back from ACL surgery, they were not supposed to miss a beat on the offensive end. They got off to a quick start against OSU, scoring a 1:30 into the game on a 36 yard pass. Then, lightning struck. Starting RB Matt Asiata went down early with a presumed torn ACL. Brian Johnson didn't return after halftime with some lingering injuries. The offense fell apart without these two. Tommy Grady was only able to produce 59 yards on 9-24 passing. Ray Stowers was only able to muster 24 yards on 11 carries.

Though the defense was eventually worn down by Yvenson Bernard and the OSU running game, Utah allowed 3.1 ypc last season and was one of the few teams that completely shut down the AF running game. OSU's passing game was non-existant, which is also a good sign for the defense.

In the punting game, Louie Sakoda was decent for Utah. He posted a 41.6 avg on 11 punts.

Air Force started the year with a ho-hum win over S. Carolina St. They won 34-3. Supposedly, Air Force is going to develop a spread attack on offense this season. Carney was 11-18 for 176 yards in this game and actually did show some willingness to go downfield. Still, AF did run 60 times (279 yards, 4.7 avg) and passed only 18. So the clock will still be ticking.

On defense, they held S. Carolina St. to 160 total yards - 90 through the air (on 28 attempts) and 70 on the ground (in 34 attempts). They did give up 25 ppg and 4.1 ypc last season, but they return their top 5 tacklers to a team that contained the Utah running game last season.

Ryan Harrison punted well for the Falcons, averaging 48 yards on two punts.

Overall, AF returns the majority of their offense minus a few receivers. I am confident that Utah can contain them like they did last season. They seemed to be well-disciplined and able to stop the multiple looks that AF gives to opponents. Also, with the loss of Johnson and Asiata, I am confident that AF, returning key guys on defense can make things difficult for Utah.

Utah 23, Air Force 17

[dmoney416]

Added a game that is starting to get out of line spread-wise:

Rice +7 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice ML +250 (0.5u to win 1.25)

That makes 8 straight plays and 1 ML play. Still looking at NC State, Auburn, and Western Mich. Not writing this game up, but if you would like my thoughts on it please ask and I'll try to get back to you tonight.

[dmoney416]

Really quick addition:

Western Michigan -1 (1.1u to win 1)