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  #1  
Old 06-28-2007, 09:58 AM
Elrohir Elrohir is offline
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Default 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

Vilain was 49/5/1.7 over 62 hands.

I put him on a flush draw and called but I wonder if it's +ev. Against a FD and two overs, it's 70/30 and against a ten it's 5/95.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $26.10
BB: $7.70
UTG: $23.80
CO: $29.10
BTN: $27.10

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.00</font>, BB calls $1.00

Turn: ($3.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $5.95</font>, Hero calls $5.95
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  #2  
Old 06-28-2007, 10:02 AM
greggg230 greggg230 is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

Well, he's 49/5, so he's a moron, so that's fine.

And he's definitely not playing like he has a T; that's a big overbet and it looks scared. He wants you out of the hand. I think this is played fine.
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  #3  
Old 06-28-2007, 10:07 AM
Spurious Spurious is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

Pot the flop you dont want him to draw.
It is highly unlikely that the turn 3 has made him a better hand, therefore pot it again.
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  #4  
Old 06-28-2007, 10:09 AM
Jouster777 Jouster777 is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

Bet $1 or more PF (even push vs. short BB is good)...your best result is a PF fold. I'm not sure villain's turn push would convince me of a FD here and if I based it on the flop action I would continue betting on the turn.

Biggest mistake: posting river action and results
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  #5  
Old 06-28-2007, 10:12 AM
Elrohir Elrohir is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

[ QUOTE ]
Biggest mistake: posting river action and results

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Edited.
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  #6  
Old 06-28-2007, 12:43 PM
skiller3 skiller3 is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

49/5/1.7

These are very loose but not aggressive stats. Even though the pot was raised preflop his chances of having a 3 or T aren't that greatly reduced right? (I don't really know). But he is showing a lot of aggression postflop right here.

I question whether you have his range beaten that well. It's probably not a horrendous call since he is a donk and your river check shows weakness.
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  #7  
Old 06-28-2007, 01:06 PM
fees fees is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

i call here all day
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  #8  
Old 06-28-2007, 01:08 PM
relativity_x relativity_x is offline
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Default Re: 25NL I followed my read, is it -ev ?

raise 1.00 preflop

pot the flop

get his short stack in on the turn.
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