Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[MyTurn2Raise]

I hope you are driving at coaches playing for FGs far too often, which I agree with


otherwise....I have no clue

[CardSharpCook]

So much depends on the skill level and tendencies of the League. We don't know if you're talking NFL, CFB, or, hell, HSFB. Answers would differ if you were talking about Pac10 or C-USA.

But, why not:

25
35
8

Not really sure what you're driving at.

[EWS87]

1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?...16%



2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)...37%

3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?...11%


EXTRA CREDIT

Tell me what I am driving at
that internet players are better then kenny tran

[MacGuyV]

1. 15-20%

2. 50%

3. 5%


Obv. I think the discrepancy in difficulty between getting a TD & FG in this spot is a lot wider than most.

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have, but it depends on some parameters. So before I reveal it I want to ask some preliminary questions. Please don't answer it before thinking about it a little because I won't let you wiggle out if you try to claim my conclusions are wrong when I base it on your own numbers.

1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?

2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)

3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?

I realize that the answers depend on a lot of unstated things but you can still give me a ballpark average, which should be good enough.

EXTRA CREDIT

Tell me what I am driving at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking NFL or college? Two-minute drill-type scores come more quickly in college, even without the two-minute warning, because of the clock stopping on first downs. I'm pretty sure there'd be a different set of correct responses to your questions if we are talking college instead of NFL.

[smbruin22]

david, which team are you talking about scoring an unnecessary TD?

the team that is down by 1? i.e. they score 2 TD's

or the team that is up by 1? i.e. the ball turns over, they score one TD that takes the margin to 8 and clock down near zero

i'd put first at 1-2%... second at 6-7%, given that the losing team hasn't scored. obviously if losing team scores, then it is necessary

but i'm seeing 10% that losing team scores two TD's from own 20 with little time and 2 timeouts. maybe my 1% was too low.