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#1
11-07-2007, 05:04 AM
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Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
Say we're at a .5/1 game PLO
5 people see the flop all with 100$ in front of them. You hold 5c 6c Ah Qh Flop: 3s 4s 7d Pot : 5$ You pot it for 5$ and everyone folds except a very solid TAG who repots it to 30$. Is a fold here +EV? Against nuts with a flush draw, ev = .30 Against nuts with a straight redraw ev = .39 Against nuts with Strt+F draw ev = .22 Against nuts with set ev = .31 Against nuts with set + F draw ev = .18 etc... Basically your EV is around .3 against most of the redraw hands which imo is not enough to make a call with the nuts on the flop a +EV play. If you do make the call, you'll have to put in extra money on the turn if a safe card hits or you can fold it if a scare card comes. I think if the 7c was changed to a 7h instead giving you a backdoor flush draw, a call would be neutral EV. Are there any other scenarios where you fold the nut straight on the flop given different stack sizes, a larger pot caused by preflop raising, or more players giving action on the flop? 
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#2
11-07-2007, 05:30 AM
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Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
EatMoPie - Am I missing something? I think he can only make it $20, and you already have $5 of it in the pot. It thus is $15 to you. Whatever.
I'd re-raise to $65 (or whatever). See if he wants to fork out another $45 (or whatever). Obviously he can put you all-in at this point. But unless he has the same straight plus a re-draw, you're ahead. If he does have the same straight with a re-draw, your pot equity depends on his re-draw. Buzz
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#3
11-07-2007, 05:40 AM
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Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
Well with the 5 limpers, the pot is already 5$ and you pot it so the pot becomes 10$ and he repot raises and that's generally 2x pot no?
In this situations we're assuming my opponent is a very solid player who knows you are also a solid player and therefore already puts you on a straight given that you're potting it into 4 other players. By repotting it, I think we can safely assume that against this opponent, he has 56 with a redraw.
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#4
11-07-2007, 05:59 AM
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Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
here I just call and reevaluate on turn. This could be very exploitable and seems weak to lay down the nuts against only one opponent, even good.
The only time I can lay down the nuts is when two players play back and you can be sure to be against flush draw and str8 + redraw...
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#5
11-07-2007, 06:59 AM
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Re: Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
a 'very solid TAG' would repot here with a wider range than the nuts with a good redraw - top set and especially top set with a redraw are more than possible depending on our own image. if its a complete nit then its slightly different, but a solid player you have to call and re-evaluate
if the flush comes or especially if the board pairs on the turn i like to lead out for 2/3 pot
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