Which level of market efficiency do you believe in?

[ahnuld]

Just a general question. For the guys who dont follow that much, weak form states that you cant profit from past pricing history, semi-strong form states you cant profit from publicly available info, and strong form states you cant profit from even private insider information.

I feel like in the short term, weak form is not true because traders can make money at times, semi-strong is false because people like Warren Buffett kill the market simply using publicly available information, and strong form is false/true, as you can profit, but also see a rise the day before a stock announces its being bought out (check fannie Mae yesterday).

So I guess imo as long as a stock is quiet and doesnt get alot of publicitiy, market efficiency will not work. But when it is popular and the press follows it closely, market efficiency may exist even in the strong form.

[The DaveR]

Big difference between equities and everything else.

[barryc83]

I dont believe in any of it. People are NOT rational.

[MatthewRyan]

on a scale 1(weak) to 10(strong), I would put myself at 8.5

[gull]

I believe 99.9% of people would be best off if they acted as if semi-strong form efficient markets existed.

[john kane]

I believe you can profit all three, just insider is far more profitable than the other two.

I think investing in where you think the market is heading and you should do well. I'm in with the gaming sector (yeh i sold loads of it) and uranium. Both have performed very well in 2007. Find the right sector, and you'll find the easy money imo.

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe 99.9% of people would be best off if they acted as if semi-strong form efficient markets existed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe in any form of the EMH, but do believe the above is pretty close to correct (it might only be 99%)

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe 99.9% of people would be best off if they acted as if semi-strong form efficient markets existed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe in any form of the EMH, but do believe the above is pretty close to correct (it might only be 99%)

[/ QUOTE ]

ed of course you can profit from publically available info... you just have to be better at interpreting it than someone else.

Even if you believe that the Market is efficient over the long term, there will always be inefficiency over shorter time frames that can be exploited by those with an edge.

[kimchi]

A market price is a momentary consensus of value between 2 people. One/both of whom are not necessarily rational. EMH doesn't work when you factor in irrational and emotional behaviour by the market participants.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
A market price is a momentary consensus of value between 2 people. One/both of whom are not necessarily rational. EMH doesn't work when you factor in irrational and emotional behaviour by the market participants.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

I hope everyone here trades in a gapping market at some point in their lives and takes proper advantage of "irrational markets."