The Myth of Suited Connectors

[pzhon]

There is an important idea that is missing from "The Myth of Suited Connectors," the idea of blocking your opponent from having a calling hand. It would strengthen most of the points made. Let's look at one example where it arises:

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Suppose that it's the first hand of the World Series of Poker Main Event and you've drawn the small blind. In a break with tradition Phil Hellmuth has shown up on time and sits down in the big blind. If, for some idiotic reason you choose to make an all-in move here, you would rather hold 76s than A5o, because Hellmuth's calling range consists of a single hand, AA. When called, 76s is a 3.5-to-1 longshot against aces, while A5o is an overwhelming 11.5-to-1 dog.

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In fact, you would be better off if you pushed with A5o than if you pushed with 76s. Either way, you are a huge underdog when called. When you get called with 76s, you expect to lose 55% of your stack. When you get called with A5o, you expect to lose 82% of your stack. However, ignoring the bunching effect, you will only get called half as often when you have A5o, 3/1225 instead of 6/1225. A5o blocks your opponent from having half of the possible AA hands. Pushing with 76s costs 0.27% of your stack (after gaining the big blind). Pushing with A5o costs 0.20% of your stack, so pushing with A5o is better, even though it is a larger underdog when called.

As I mentioned before, this is important in NL when you make a raise or reraise so that you are most worried about an opponent holding AA.