Deep, flush vs big river 3bet

[Pigeons]

Villain is normally very TAGish and does not get out of line. He is tilted atm, though, and lost like 3 buy-ins within the last 30 hands. I have never seen him make a similar raise as a bluff. I have a aggro and tricky image, capable of running big bluffs, but not v. good at laydowns.
I mostly bet flop. All comments appreciated..

Seat 1: Hero (17898.00)
Seat 2: Button (5297.00)
Seat 3: SB (9557.00)
Seat 4: Villain (12001.00)
Seat 5: UTG (24438.00)

SB post SB 25.00
Villain post BB 50.00

** Deal **
Hero [Js, 7s]

*** Bet Round 1 ***
UTG Fold
Hero Raise to 150.00
Button Fold
SB Fold
Villain Call 150.00

*** Flop(Board): *** : [Kc, 10c, Qs]

*** Bet Round 2 ***
Villain Check
Hero Check

*** Turn(Board): *** : [Kc, 10c, Qs, 3s]

*** Bet Round 3 ***
Villain Check
Hero Bet 250.00
Villain Call 250.00

*** River(Board): *** : [Kc, 10c, Qs, 3s, 6s]

*** Bet Round 4 ***
Villain Bet 550.00
Hero Raise to 1800.00
Villain Raise to 9000.00
Hero..

[gs3737]

Wow this is sick. I think you can eliminate the king high flush, so you basically have the 2nd nuts. He would have to be the tighest player I have ever seen to lay this down.

[Messiahkid]

He doesn't take the c/c line on the turn given previous action with Ks/x so basically one hand beats us. I think I have to call here most of the time.

[bigt2k4]

now that I think about it, being a TAG he almost has to have the A of spades to make this move and he wouldn't check call the turn with As (k,q,j,10x, 20 being the only exception) so most likely he has 2 thru 9 as his other card and he probably wouldn't play it without it being suited. The tilt part is the only part which would make me think he doesn't have it(how long did he delay to raise the river?), have you seen him actually tilt(not just open raise a bad hand?), being a TAG I don't see him 3 betting this large with a smaller flush(given the action) even if he is on tilt, so he probably has it.

That being said, in the heat of the moment I see that he lost 3 buyins in 30 hands (still deepstacked tho) and call and lose.

edit: damn, my 4000th post is wasted on strategy

[luegofuego]

GROSS but pot just like twenty-doubled in size on one single street so i find it hard to believe he has anything but the absolute noodles here. i dont know if i could fold tho, i hope i could...

[Kilay]

I think I'd call and puke in that order since he has the goods here 9/10 times if he isn't a player that gets out of line and runs big bluffs but I can't see myself laying it down right there...

[bigt2k4]

in my above post I mean 10 not 20 being the only exception.

[winkandgun]

GROSSSSS spot, and I don't think I ever fold in the heat of the moment, and I also don't expect to be good very often [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[HERE_2_gamble_]

mehh, i think its a reletively easy fold, his chances of bluffing are so slim imo.
The only hand i could see him bluffin with is the As X, but it's so unlikely because what hands call the turn with just a bare Ax and donk the river, if he was going to get you off something i think his line would be check/raise. basically i fold, because he isnt value raising worse.

[Kirkrrr]

The fact that he just lost 3 buyins in quick succession makes me a lot more inclined to fold here - normally he'd probably raise smaller (and yeah, he's got you beat) but he's desperately trying to make his money back, not bluff off another 10k, so he bombs the river and just hopes you have a hand you can call with.

Kirk