Prop Bet - What is my plan here?

[rvg72]

ok, here is the deal. A guy I know thinks that he has a ridiculously huge edge buying in with $300 and me buying in with only $20 (but I can reload as many times as I want - I'll probably bring $300 but maybe more although I really doubt I'll need close to that). He thinks that this one fact presents such a huge edge that he is stipulating these conditions:

1) I choose the blinds, from 0.01/0.02 to 10/20
2) He can only check, fold or go all-in

So, obviously this is pretty ridiculous but still, what is my most +ev strategy?

I'm thinking blinds at $1/$2 and I min-raise every time from the SB. I could probably use some Nash Equilibrium to select calling hands from the BB when he pushes. I guess I could do the same from the SB when he pushes over top.

Another SB strategy would be to call every hand or mix call/raises and then bet the minimum on every flop.

Any advice? Comments? Any estimates on what my edge is here. I'm thinking I'm at least a 4 to 1 favorite.

rvg

[craig1120]

Roy,
There are so many different ways you can go about doing this. I like your mini raise pf strategy until you get a decent sized stack compared to blinds. At this point I'd rather just call the blinds and see lots of flops. This will obv reduce your variance.

Here is what I would do. I would start by having a wide opening range with your pf mini raises to see how he reacts. You want to figure out what % of his hands he is pushing. At some point he is going to have to push with a wide range in order to not get blinded away. Then I would tighten up my opening range and widen my calling range of his pushes but still you're calling range must still be ahead/dominating his pushing range. Since he won't have much FE he is going to have to go back to tightening up his pushing range. Then you go back to widening up your pf min raising range. I would keep repeating this cycle and apply the same thing to postflop play.

He will be a huge dog to this strategy.

[rvg72]

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Roy,
There are so many different ways you can go about doing this. I like your mini raise pf strategy until you get a decent sized stack compared to blinds. At this point I'd rather just call the blinds and see lots of flops. This will obv reduce your variance.

Here is what I would do. I would start by having a wide opening range with your pf mini raises to see how he reacts. You want to figure out what % of his hands he is pushing. At some point he is going to have to push with a wide range in order to not get blinded away. Then I would tighten up my opening range and widen my calling range of his pushes but still you're calling range must still be ahead/dominating his pushing range. Since he won't have much FE he is going to have to go back to tightening up his pushing range. Then you go back to widening up your pf min raising range. I would keep repeating this cycle and apply the same thing to postflop play.

He will be a huge dog to this strategy.

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Limping more often when the stacks get larger is a good idea and I'll definately be keeping an eye on his pushing range.

Do you think $1/$2 is good? I think it is a nice balance to ensure I build up a little early on through the minbets without giving up too much if I fold to the reraise. I wonder if $0.50/$1 might be better...

I still can't believe he's going ahead with this. Even if he didn't restrict himself to shove/fold moves I'm pretty sure I'd take his stack. Anyone that thinks this prop bet is +$ev obviously has some conceptual issues with poker.

rvg

[pzhon]

If he is going to do this as long as you want, you should set the blinds to be as low as possible. In reality, you can't do this, since he will get bored and quit, and you might prefer a higher wage rate, but small blinds give you the largest probability of winning.

If he is pushing less than 1/3 of the hands, you don't need to call all-in, since you will blind him down safely. If he is pushing more than 1/3 of his hands, you can call with your best hands. If you call with only AA, you will expect to gain about 70% of the effective stack size when you call, but this might happen less than 1/221 * 1/3 of the time if he is pushing with a lot of Ax hands which block AA, and folding more than 2/3 of the time when you have AA. So, to gain using the strategy of only playing AA, you need to make sure the blinds are not very large so that you don't blind down much while waiting for AA. If the blinds are larger, you will need to call with a wider range, and will not have as much of an advantage when you call.

By the way, if you ignore the blinds and assume that you can be all-in with an 85% chance to win, you have a 52.22% =.85^4 chance to win with your initial $20 without reloading, a 52.19% chance with the next $20, ... a 48.87% chance (significantly greater than 0.85^5) chance to win with $20 against $580. Your chance to lose all 15 of those coinflips is about 1/43,000.

[rvg72]

This is what I've come up with now as my preflop BB strategy vs a push at least initially when my stack is say under $50. As I double up I'll be looking for higher ev situations. Basically this range gives me > 55% equity. This is also assuming $0.5/$1. If I go lower then I can tighten up but I don't want him to get bored and quit. I realize that if I make the blinds 0.01/0.02 I basically will not lose but I need to balance time / effort / his perception that he has a reasonable chance of winning.

Pairs: call with 66+ and call with 55 and 44 if he's pushing more than half the time
Suited Aces: call with A8s+ and almost any suited ace if he's pushing more then half the time
Unsuited Aces: call with A9o+ and add a few more if he's pushing more than half the time
Other: If he's pushing 40% or more than add KQs and a a couple more if he is pushing more than half the time

If he is shoving more than 65% of the time then of course I can open it up some more but not a whole lot.

My SB strategy early on will be 2/3 min raise and 1/3 call and min bet flop and pretty much randomize what I do. If he shoves over limps and I fold frequently then I'll limp more premium hands.

rvg

[Dromar]

From a poker theory standpoint, you would want the blinds to be at .01/.02 since his play will be so wrong when blinds are that low. But if you're worried that he'll stop playing before you get all $300, you need to have the blinds at a much higher level.

You're looking for the most +EV strategy, and that strategy is whatever gets you all $300 before he quits. Set blinds high, like $2/$4, and there'll be a few quick and easy all-in decisions, but once you double up to $40, a push/fold strategy becomes more exploitable. It would be even more exploitable if the blinds were something like .10/.25, but the difference here is that it's much less likely that he'll realize that he's making a terrible mistake playing this way.

I'd suggest $2/$4 blinds, along with the playing strategies mentioned in earlier posts (minraise/minbet a lot, etc.)

[eof]

what are the details of the prop bet? Is he just locking himself into a bad strategy, or is there money on the side? I think blinds of 1-2 are good.

[rvg72]

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what are the details of the prop bet? Is he just locking himself into a bad strategy, or is there money on the side? I think blinds of 1-2 are good.

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I guess it isn't technically a prop bet - we play until one of us wins and he's added a clause that nobody can quit (although I don't feel like playing for 10 hours at 1c/2c). It's weird in a prop bet kind of way.

He just added two more stipulations, both of which are in my favor, since he really thinks he's a huge favorite...

1) I can take money out of my stack and into my pockets whenever I want. Pretty sure I won't use this since the deeper we are the bigger my edge gets when all he can do is push or fold.

2) I can change the blinds before any hand. Not just once... as often as I like... He didn't clarify in the official documented rules but changing the blinds to 1c/2c when I am BB and then back up when I am SB won't be allowed obviously.

So... basically it got even easier... how would you use this to your best advantage?

No money on the side, no odds or anything like this. He just truly believes that he has a gigantic edge and feels bad that I don't understand that I'm going to lose all my money. Pretty funny actually.

rvg

[eof]

well.. LOL.

idk what to say. i like min raising from the sb every hand when you're deep and min betting every flop.

so does it go until one of you has lost 300? if you take 200 of his money so you have 220 and he has 100, does he rebuy or no?

if he doesn't rebuy, i cash out 180 and start over.. since neither is allowed to quit it takes some of the gamble away when you call all in with aj and he has k3 or something.

since your goal is simply to get 300 and he doesn't get to quit (i would get this added into the rules if you can.. that whoever quits gives up their 300) i think knocking him down 20-60 bucks a time is the best bet since he lets you do it that way.

[rvg72]

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well.. LOL.

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I know!!!

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i like min raising from the sb every hand when you're deep and min betting every flop.

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Thing is when I min raise with the SB he has to push or fold so there would be no postflop betting. If I limp then that's when I can minbet the flop and force him to push or fold. Maybe you realize this and I misread your thought there.

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so does it go until one of you has lost 300? if you take 200 of his money so you have 220 and he has 100, does he rebuy or no?

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This has been updated - we now both have a $600 bankroll but he buys in for $300 and I buyin for $20. If he goes below $10 then he can rebuy for the remaining $300. If either of us quit we owe at least $300 otherwise we keep on playing.

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if he doesn't rebuy, i cash out 180 and start over.. since neither is allowed to quit it takes some of the gamble away when you call all in with aj and he has k3 or something.

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Does this really work for me though? If I have $220 and he has $100 then I just use my $100 calling range and if I lose I still have $120 instead of $0. I think I'd like to always be as deep as possible although really tighten up my range when deep unless he's pushing 60-70% or something like that. Basically go for 60% EV on the call when deep vs being happy with say 52% EV when early on.

This whole thing came from a discussion we had where he said that if everyone at the table had say $100 and he had $10000 that he would win everyone's money every single time because he could keep on going all-in and he'd frequently pick up money from folds and even if they called there is no way they could win enough times in a row to bust him.

No I am not sharing him with any of you but thanks for the suggestions anyways!

I actually put together a little simulation and obviously making a lot of assumptions, I win about 1 out of every 7 times with $20 vs $300. I'd have to lose 30 times in a row for him to win the $600 off of me so I'm liking my odds. However, the more I lose the tougher it will be to bust him since he'll have a bigger stack but I'm now pretty sure I'm at least 20 to 1 to win this thing.

I'm liking 0.50/1.00 for the blinds initially and raising that quite a bit, say to 2/4, once I'm a little deeper if he's pushing < 30%. I should be able to pick up a bunch in blinds and force him to adjust his range most likely too much. I'll post the results - looks like it will be happening next weekend or possible the week after that due to our schedules kind of conflicting at the moment.

rvg