200NL Huge flop

[Dan87]

Important Stack Sizes

Hero: $150 (just lost big pot and didnt have time to reload between hands)
Villain: $400

Hero gets AdQd UTG and raises to $10, folds to Villain on Button who calls, both blinds fold.

Flop AhKd7d. Hero bets $15, Villain raises to $40, Hero pushes allin for $140 total.

Villain is one of the tightest players at the table so his raise means almost certainly I am beat now, but is there any other way to play this? Surely calling then folding a blank turn is terrible isnt it?

[Womble]

WEll if you are certain you are beat you shouldnt be shoving - still - you can prob call and get it in when you hit since he will have a hard time folding to a diamond if he has 2pair +

[Dan87]

By shoving I am no worse than 35% to win though, just calling cuts down my equity a lot doesnt it?

What I'm asking is what do you do if you call and the turn is 3c, you check, and he bets 70$? You now have 50$ invested with the NFD and top pair and can't even call.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Kd 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.327% 35.03% 00.30% 5202 44.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.673% 64.38% 00.30% 9560 44.00 { KK+, 77, AKs, A7s, AKo }


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So we have 35% equity, are right now the pot is 75 and its 35 for us to call.

We have 125 left. Pot is 75. So, if we put in 125 to win the 75 + 100 pot, that is 175:125 or, 1.4:1. If he folds 0% of the time, we need 41% equity, which we don't have vs this range. However, we have odds to call and we can shove/pot a turn when we hit, and c/f otherwise.

[dragonystic]

do you have any numbers for villain OP?

[bulldogs24]

easy easy shove