100nl KTo (Timing tell makes me 2nd barrel but now do i vbet river?)

[kaz2107]

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players <font color="black"> </font>
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $218.10
UTG+1: $60.28
Hero: $217.50
Button: $48.43 <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font>
SB: $94.65
BB: $305.87

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($15.5, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $11</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($37.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $25</font>, BB calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($87.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???



<font color="black"> Reads and thoughts...
The main villian in this hand seems pretty fishy but i have only been at the table a few orbits. hasnt done n e thing totally redonkulous but has been callin and rasing way to much to b a decent player.

both people checked really quickly and the flop was pretty harmless thus i decided to cbet 3 handed here.

villian turbo checked the turn which screamed WEAKNESS!!!! so i fired a 2nd barrel. (prolly shoulda been bigger. wut r ur thoughts on tha bet sizing there)

river. welp i didnt really want to get to tha river but now that we r here i figure to take tha lead of a zillian hands that would b check calling the flop and turn bets. tha problem is that the pot is now pretty damn big for a tp10k type hand thus im not sure if a value bet here has any merit. as i said before villian seemed rather donkish and thus i could see him calling with a pair of jacks here or possibly sumtin slightly worse (do u think this assumption is right?) i was also thinkin there werent really any draws he could have been sticking around with so if he liked his hand on the turn he probably didnt miss a draw or sumtin on the river and be able to make an easy fold.

k so wut do u think about the whole hand?!?!? go by the timing tell ok?? bet the turn more, check the turn and give up?!?!? value bet the river?!?! how much!?!?! lets hear all tha thoughts u guys have </font>

[badmeaningbad]

I tend to just check behind on turn here... Villain has shown some commitment to the pot after calling raise preflop, and a good bet on flop, I don't like the chance being taken out of the pot by a c/r with our gutterball, and villain has shown a pretty significant reluctance to drop.

Maybe I undervalue timing tells. The wireless in my apartment sucks balls, so they aren't that reliable for me. But I tend to base my decision to two barrel more on my opponents tendencies than any timing tell.

We might get paid off by QJ/JT etc. here... I think dropping a 15$ value bet would be correct here. In reality I crap a brick after I'm called on turn and check behind on river, but that's because I'm a Sally.

[barryc83]

Pf/flop I like. Thats as dry a flop as there is and I think you take it down a lot unless you know theyre both stations.

Turn I dont really like, that 8 changes nothing he never folds a J here and he could call with a pp or any pair. Once he calls the turn I gotta believe he has a J. I probably bet $60 on the river bc he cant really think you have a K (unless its KJ). I like a 2/3 pot river bc its not too scary and I think he looks you up with Jx a whole lot.

[Vyse]

I check behind, even if I had TP all the way, a bet on each street is still too much for a marginal hand.

[badmeaningbad]

[ QUOTE ]
Pf/flop I like. Thats as dry a flop as there is and I think you take it down a lot unless you know theyre both stations.

Turn I dont really like, that 8 changes nothing he never folds a J here and he could call with a pp or any pair. Once he calls the turn I gotta believe he has a J. I probably bet $60 on the river bc he cant really think you have a K (unless its KJ). I like a 2/3 pot river bc its not too scary and I think he looks you up with Jx a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ my 15$ river bet suggestion???

[Vyse]

BTW, timing tells = worthless.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pf/flop I like. Thats as dry a flop as there is and I think you take it down a lot unless you know theyre both stations.

Turn I dont really like, that 8 changes nothing he never folds a J here and he could call with a pp or any pair. Once he calls the turn I gotta believe he has a J. I probably bet $60 on the river bc he cant really think you have a K (unless its KJ). I like a 2/3 pot river bc its not too scary and I think he looks you up with Jx a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ my 15$ river bet suggestion???

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I grunched my post, but I hate a $15 bet, if youre gonna bet that small, why open up the betting again? JMO, but I dont wanna get raised just bc I bet 1/4 pot on the river when I have showdown value.

Look I know a $60 bet on the river is a thin VB but against someone who appears to be stationish, I think its correct. Idk for sure, but I think (JMO again) that making bets like this is the difference between 3ptbb/100 and 7-8ptbb/100. Would he really check 2pair/set/str8 on the river, the overwhelming majority wont. His line screams "I have a 1pair hand that wants to get to showdown." Take him to valuetown, if he raises anything its a snapfold.

[badmeaningbad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pf/flop I like. Thats as dry a flop as there is and I think you take it down a lot unless you know theyre both stations.

Turn I dont really like, that 8 changes nothing he never folds a J here and he could call with a pp or any pair. Once he calls the turn I gotta believe he has a J. I probably bet $60 on the river bc he cant really think you have a K (unless its KJ). I like a 2/3 pot river bc its not too scary and I think he looks you up with Jx a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ my 15$ river bet suggestion???

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I grunched my post, but I hate a $15 bet, if youre gonna bet that small, why open up the betting again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, good point, may just provoke villain into playing back. This crossed my mind while I made the post. I just knew that a value bet was necessary, but didn't have the balls to consider 3/4 pot. I think I like going between the 15 and 60, for $40 now.

If a $60 bet here is the difference between 3BB/100 and 7-8/100 I'd be happy in the 4-5 range [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, timing tells = worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

no they're not....I use timing/bet size tells ALL the time

river bet $55-$60 is fine IMO

[Xanta]

I bet a bit less here, probably make it $45-50 on the river so that all kinds of jacks and 99-TT can call. If you think he'll pay you off for more, go for it.