54s rr-ed pot

[traz]

I'd shove the river. I wouldn't trust QQ to bet, but he might make a crying call

[Chicago Twister]

i'd push, but that could easily suck

and wtf @ pf, thats the kind of thing that convinces me its time to quit for the day

[RiverFenix]

I donk this flop at least a third of the time or so.

At the river I'd shove, looks a lot more like JJ than a flush but I'd expect a crying call anyway.

Also fold pf sucks when he flips AThh.

[spivey]

Fold turn. 3 of your Ace outs aren't necessarily clean, and if they are clean and you hit and open shove, I don't know that he'll call with hands like JJ-KK anyways.

Plus, he could have been double barreling with hands like AQhh or AKhh - small part of his range, but it has to be considered.

[Unknown Soldier]

def dont fold turn, don't like raising much either. i think river is a crai, he'd have to be pretty bad for it to be a push

[BombayBadboy]

I like an openshove on the river..I really don't think he is betting AA and KK there one more time.

[Dire]

Meh, really hate calling the turn because you're left in this spot on the river. Shoving the river just looks so retardedly strong. You could show up with TT, JJ, 33, 22, some odd flush, blah.. If he has QQ, I think he snap folds. You're basically hoping he has exactly KK/AA and makes a 100BB crying call. But it's not entirely certain he value bets KK/AA if checked to (wtf range is he putting you on?).

I probably just shove the river, but don't like it at all. Shoving the turn would have been so sweet and avoided this crappy spot!

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
I donk this flop at least a third of the time or so.

At the river I'd shove, looks a lot more like JJ than a flush but I'd expect a crying call anyway.

Also fold pf sucks when he flips AThh.

[/ QUOTE ]
you donk flop? interesting line. your plan when he (inevitably) raises?

[Dire]

Thinking about this hand more I think:

check raising turn > folding turn > calling turn

On the turn you ostensibly have 15 outs getting 2.5:1, which shows an immediate profit of (.326 * 203 + .674 * -80) = $12. Of course that's fudged a bit since your outs obviously aren't all clean. The turn is going to be around =EV. So all our profit is supposed to come on the river if you call the turn.

But I just don't think it's reasonable to expect to be able to extract alot of value on the river. I think he can get away from alot of his hands when we hit (or check behind when we check to him), but we can never get away from ours when we hit - meaning we can already shove a huge chunk off our turn EV since we're losing 220 everytime we hit and he has TT, for example. It all depends on how often he's calling 100BB shoves with one pair hands. I just don't think it's too often when he seems rather tight/conservative and has no reason to believe you're a spewtard.

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I donk this flop at least a third of the time or so.

At the river I'd shove, looks a lot more like JJ than a flush but I'd expect a crying call anyway.

Also fold pf sucks when he flips AThh.

[/ QUOTE ]
you donk flop? interesting line. your plan when he (inevitably) raises?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if he raises 100% and preflop is huge spew then b3b must be very profitable.