Stud8 - (AA)K facing reraise from Q door

[djk123]

looks good.

[Raxxmataxx]

Why not jam 5th street?

Nobody is likely to have a two pair and nobody is freerolling you yet.

For the low draws to do that they'd pretty much would have had to started out with a small pair and paired on 4th. The K and Q are very unlikely to have helped them even if they were live, and now they're blocked as well. And if they actually do have a two-low with two pair raising might get them to fold, which would be huge.

The flush draws do leave you in bad shape. But it's much worse for a pair of queens or worse, and if he folds you're still going to increase your equity by 10 points or so. Or proportionally you're going to increase you equity by fifty percent getting rid of seat 3 when he only has a pair.

Seat 3 could of course also has a flush draw, which is very bad. And it's not super-unlikely combination wise. If he begain with split queens he's got at least one spade 50% of the time. So *very* roughly he has the flush draw something like 15-25% of the time, which is decreased quite a lot by him just calling your bet. And the same reasoning goes for him having two pair or trips.

If you're getting rid of even a really crappy lowdraw that's going to help you too. Though not as much as getting rid of a pair of queens.

Getting heads-up of course, is the jackpot. Even if you are up against a smooth straight draw. If it's against a low without much for high you've suddenly gone from 25%-30% in a big pot to 67%. If you happen to get heads-up against a straight-flush draw you're still much better off being 1-on-1 rather than a multiway pot.

Seat 4 could have a flush draw, but then he'd have had to have started specifically with two small clubs, and probably not 4c. That's two out of A23678 clubs compared to all the other low cards and pairs he could have had. Of course, once he's raised he probably doesn't have a pair, but it doesn't exclude a ton of low hands trying to punish seat 5.

Anyway, seems like a pretty clear jamming opportunity between you and the best lowdraw. If the other two keeps playing with just pairs and bad lows they're getting stitched up for a ton.

Sometimes you're going to be taking it in the ass from a flushdraw, but that happens.

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not jam 5th street?

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got one pair. Who's to say that someone doesn't have two pair or better? The one guy is raising with something. Everyone else is calling with something. There are still plenty of ways this hand can go south. I think it's better to use some caution here.

I think this hand was well-played.

[Raxxmataxx]

[ QUOTE ]
We've got one pair. Who's to say that someone doesn't have two pair or better?

[/ QUOTE ]Not to be a dick about it, but did you actually read my post?

I explained that getting rid of a pair of queens always is good, and same goes for the bad low draw. So even if we are screwed we gain by getting rid of some competition.

I also explained why it is very unlikely we're beat for high. The low boards are playing exactly like a good and bad low draw, respectively and the high board is just calling and had to have started with Q7Q, Q3Q, or trips to beat us. And those cards are really dead. And more importantly, someone who has a high hand good enough to *re-raise* with on 3d can be expected to put in another raise when he improves.

So yeah, we only have a pair, and a somewhat dead on at that, and the other guys have something. But I've put in a fairly credible explanation why we're good against that something despite just having a pair and why good things can happen by a raise.

[Raxxmataxx]

For instance, suppose we're up against the following line up:

Ah Ad Kh 5s Td
Qd Jh Qh 7s 3s
6c 3h 4h 5c Qc
5h 4d 7d 2h Kc

Ie, two lowdraws and one with open-ended straight possibilities. By getting rid of the other high hand we increase our equity from 24% to 33%. If we don't succeed in that we lose a tiny bit, but nothing worth crying over.

If we're up against a four-flush and four-low we change our equity from 18% to 29% by thinning the field.

If we're up against two lowdraws without good high possibilities we have 30% equity in a four-way pot and increase that to frickin' 45% by isolating against the lows.

If we're up against trips, we're obviously destroyed. But for that to be true someone has to have trips with one queen dead, parleyed with them changing from pounding to slowplay.

It's just not credible that Q73 has us directly beat for high. I'd estimate it to be somewhere in the 1-5% vincinity, if that. A flushdraw would be pretty bad, but those aren't exactly a huge part of a reasonable, or unreasonable, re-raise distribution on third.

There's some oddball potential in the low boards starting with QQ (KKK is impossible now) 22, 444, 55 or 77 in the hole, or anyone else than us having AA. And those situations will screw us up, but they are pretty damn unlikely.

To me, it seems like a huge mistake not to raise.