Heis donks the river

[efficacy]

BB is Heis. Easy river raise?

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, Hero

[NinaWilliams]

Id just call. I dont think hes paying off the raise with a worse hand.

[MacGuyV]

Since you opened otb I'd think he'd play any pair or even A3 faster. I dunno I think he's got a flush alot.

[thepizzlefosho]

if you can fold a 3-bet I think it is ok. but honestly I just call here. I don't think he has enough hands that are b/c'ing that you have beat to make it worth a raise. Plus folding an over pair for 1 bet on the river after you made the pot huge makes me want to kick dogs, and I love dogs.

[rzk]

i doubt it's a two pair or set. it's either a WA/WB line with a pair, a bluff, or a flush. haven't counted the combos, but since Heis's wtsd is above 40 i'd lean towards a raise. if he reraises you probably have a marginal call, though anybody who's played more than 0 hands with Heis should have a better idea of whether he's capable of bluff 3-betting.

EDIT: btw, it's important to know what's his image of you is, more specifically how much he respects your raises.

[DeathDonkey]

Closer to a fold than a raise. You think he doesn't give you more action with a pair sooner?

-DeathDonkey

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
Closer to a fold than a raise. You think he doesn't give you more action with a pair sooner?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

probably sometimes yes and sometimes no, but likewise he sometimes gives more action with a flush draw. he clearly must have (weak) made hands in his c/c c/c range, otherwise his play would be very unbalanced. and we all know how heis loves balance.

[rzk]

here's another way to look at it. let's assume that neither efficacy nor heis has any obvious leaks and as a result heis plays close to optimal.

suppose it were correct to only call this river with our AA, because heis has a flush here too often. but that would mean that heis wins only 1BB on the river against our range the vast majority of the time with his flush, because we rarely have anything better than AA. that would imply that heis should have actually check-raised his flushes, mixed with the appropriate fraction of bluffs to force us to call ,thus earning him more than 1BB on average (since we are likely to bet more than 50% here). we've now come to the contradiction with the assumption that heis plays optimally, so calling with AA is not the optimal play.

[MacGuyV]

You're overthinking this so much. What is he paying off with?

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
You're overthinking this so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the right way to think about the problem or analyze lines of reasoning, especially when it comes to smart players playing against smart players.