AQs in BB against blind steal

bung · #1 12-15-2006, 08:02 PM

Button is lag, and I've seen him trying to steal blinds previously.

1) If this wasn't a blind steal (let's say it was a MP2, raising instead), how would your advice differ?

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Button raises, 1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button folds.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB.

fretelöo · #2 12-15-2006, 08:17 PM

If this indeed is a blind steal, then you should reraise him pf.

Here's the thing about blind stealing: Assume that he does that every round, and you are wise enough not to try to defend with utter trash. So, every time both you and the SB have trash, you'll fold and he collects the blinds. If you raise him back, he folds immediately.

Thus:
If you fold, Button wins 1,5SB.
If you reraise, Button loses 2SB.
So: x*1,5 + (1-x)*-2 = 0
1,5x + 2x - 2 = 0
3.5x -2 = 0
3.5x = 2
x =.57

So, this play shows an immediate profit if it succeeds more than half the time.
The way to battle this, is that he must know that a BSA will cost him MORE than 2SB. You'll frequently reraise and he'll also has to spend flop and turn bets. Then, his play becomes unprofitable. Therefore, if you are relatively certain that you're up agaisnt a blind stealer, become more aggressive. Play any A5+ and reraise from AT+. Of course, postflop, still play reasonable.

Since you can more or less assume that from MP2 you're not against a BSA, you still raise from the BB, but you play poker, i.e. figure that you have two backdoor-draws on the flop, plus two potentially dominated overcards.

unterfish · #3 12-15-2006, 08:19 PM

Haha. Nice river bet. I would reraise PF.
And I am not sure if I like calling down here. Against a lag, I like him to pay me off when I have something. And not to play back at him.

unterfish · #4 12-15-2006, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Thus:
If you fold, Button wins 1,5SB.
If you reraise, Button loses 2SB.
So: x*1,5 + (1-x)*-2 = 0
1,5x + 2x - 2 = 0
3.5x -2 = 0
3.5x = 2
x =.57

[/ QUOTE ]

Set x = 1, and you have just maximized your immediate profit.
This is because of the rather unlikely scenario that he will fold to every 3-bet.

whoisthedrizzle · #5 12-15-2006, 08:43 PM

Re-pop preflop.
Fold turn as played.

bung · #6 12-15-2006, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Re-pop preflop.
Fold turn as played.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is laying me 4.25bb, and my break-even-pot-odds are about 4-1.

Should I fold because I'm drawing too thin in a small pot?

fretelöo · #7 12-15-2006, 08:52 PM

Where do you get your 4:1 from? You've got a gutshot, needing 10:1 (disregarding your overs). Plus, there's a flush on the board, making one of four outs bad.

kerowo · #8 12-15-2006, 09:07 PM

Two standard blind defense lines are:
1. Call pre-flop c/r any flop, lead any turn
2. 3-bet pre-flop lead any flop, evaluate on turn

When you are in the SB you should lean more towards 2 or if you have a quality hand, which AQ is, to get rid of the BB.

If you get played back at and think villain is a maroon call him down. If you don't think villain is an idiot play poker. The last thing you want to do is turn blind defense into a pissing contest with air.

nerdking · #9 12-15-2006, 09:11 PM

grunch

PF if button is LAG or even LAP a 3bet from BB will do even more to put him in his place.

Post-flop a calldown here is bad for business especially with the board structured the way it is. You're either restealing from this cat or you're folding.

bung · #10 12-15-2006, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Two standard blind defense lines are:
1. Call pre-flop c/r any flop, lead any turn
2. 3-bet pre-flop lead any flop, evaluate on turn

When you are in the SB you should lean more towards 2 or if you have a quality hand, which AQ is, to get rid of the BB.

If you get played back at and think villain is a maroon call him down. If you don't think villain is an idiot play poker. The last thing you want to do is turn blind defense into a pissing contest with air.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's some serious advice kerowo. Truly appreciated man...