***yankees official offseason thread*****

[rwperu34]

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I still think Kennedy + Melky + someone not named Hughes, Cano or Chamberlain is enough and will likely go through.

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I agree with this sentiment, although the Twins could/probably should demand Wang instead of Kennedy.

That four player package offered by the Red Sox is really really good, and more than I though the Twins would be able to get for Santana. I've heard that Bowden would go over instead of Masterson, which would make it even better.

Here's the thing. If the Twins really want high ceiling parts, they don't need to Hughes. The Yankess farm system is loaded, even more so than I originally thought, with high ceiling type of players. Wang, Cabrera, A.Jackson, and Betances would be an absolute rape job for the Twins, but wouldn't kill the Yankees farm. Especially when you consider they can reload this June. The Twins could sub Jackson and Betances with any number of players and come out just as good, and better in the long run than the Red Sox offer.

IMO, the Delmon Young deal pretty much eliminates the Twins from contention in 2008, so they might as well get as much future value as they can. Put another way, I don't know why they care about MLB ready prospects and not ceiling. A good mix of both would be the best. That Red Sox package is long on MLB ready but short on ceiling. Any Yankees package with Cabrera, and MLB ready pitcher, and a high ceiling prospect or two is going to be a great mix.

[Thremp]

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I still think Kennedy + Melky + someone not named Hughes, Cano or Chamberlain is enough and will likely go through.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this sentiment, although the Twins could/probably should demand Wang instead of Kennedy.

That four player package offered by the Red Sox is really really good, and more than I though the Twins would be able to get for Santana. I've heard that Bowden would go over instead of Masterson, which would make it even better.

Here's the thing. If the Twins really want high ceiling parts, they don't need to Hughes. The Yankess farm system is loaded, even more so than I originally thought, with high ceiling type of players. Wang, Cabrera, A.Jackson, and Betances would be an absolute rape job for the Twins, but wouldn't kill the Yankees farm. Especially when you consider they can reload this June. The Twins could sub Jackson and Betances with any number of players and come out just as good, and better in the long run than the Red Sox offer.

IMO, the Delmon Young deal pretty much eliminates the Twins from contention in 2008, so they might as well get as much future value as they can. Put another way, I don't know why they care about MLB ready prospects and not ceiling. A good mix of both would be the best. That Red Sox package is long on MLB ready but short on ceiling. Any Yankees package with Cabrera, and MLB ready pitcher, and a high ceiling prospect or two is going to be a great mix.

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OMFG STFU EV EV EV EV

Its all that matters.

Now will you concede that stupid point you made earlier about EV being the only determinant of good/bad personnel decisions?

[rwperu34]

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Now will you concede that stupid point you made earlier about EV being the only determinant of good/bad personnel decisions?


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WTF are you talking about? First of all, if you would read everything I write, you'd know I said you can put weight wherever you want. For the Twins, I'd put more weight than normal on superstar outcomes and zero weight on 2008. When you do that, the EV of Jackson and Betances becomes higher than Lowrie and Masterson, if it isn't already.

Recap; For the Twins, they should put more wieght on superstar outcomes with no regard towards 2008 when calculating their EV. Is that too difficult to understand?

[Franchise 60]

Everything I've heard is that the Twins don't want Wang or Cano because they don't want to have to pay either of them.

[Rubeskies]

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Everything I've heard is that the Twins don't want Wang or Cano because they don't want to have to pay either of them.

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Also, Wang on turf will have a negative impact on his effectiveness.

[rwperu34]

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Everything I've heard is that the Twins don't want Wang or Cano because they don't want to have to pay either of them.

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Also, Wang on turf will have a negative impact on his effectiveness.

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True on both accounts, and if I'm the Yankees, I'd rather unload Kennedy than Wang.

If I'm the Twins, I'd still probably have Wang over Kennedy. If they don't want to pay him, they could trade him for more than they can get for Kennedy. Even with the turf affect, Wang carries far less risk than Kennedy and I don't know that Kennedy makes up for it with upside. In fact, Kennedy's ceiling is pretty much Wang.

[SL__72]

Here is how all 3 compare to the other starters in the Twins system right now:

Zips projections for next year:

Name/age/era:
Santana/29/3.21
Liriano/24/3.42 (obv. very risky)
Hughes/23/3.70
Wang/27/3.91
Slowey/24/3.93
Garza/24/4.21 (just traded away)
Kennedy/23/4.38
League average - 4.57
Pino/24/4.46
Baker/26/4.50
Manship/23/4.64
Blackburn/26/4.86
Swarzak/22/4.90
Bonser/26/4.98
Sosa/22/5.01

/edited to include all relevant players

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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In fact, Kennedy's ceiling is pretty much Wang.

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according to Kevin Goldstein, Kennedy's ceiling is a #3 (and he is basically already there)