Ridiculous lottery argument

yoursmine · #1 03-29-2007, 11:21 PM

I run free poker tournies at a local bar. One of my players tonight who claims to be a computer science major had some "interesting" lottery statistics. He said that he analyzed the Florida lottery and since its inception the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 have never come up. He also said that these numbers are statistically less likely than say 3-14-25-38-47-50. He went on to say that his program had picked 3 mumbers correct on one ticket and three on another and if he had put them together then he would have won 25$ mill

I dont even know where to begin with this dunderhead. I would say ignore him but I will see him pretty much every week so Im sure hes going to keep up on this rant.

Any suggestions? Maybe an ice pick or some kerosene and a match?

Ampelmann · #2 03-30-2007, 03:31 AM

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Any suggestions?

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Play Poker against him. Or some other gamble where he might think he can have an edge by analyzing (coincidental) correlation between random events, where deviating from basic strategy is bad (make up some competitive BJ).

Honestly, I've tried to explain random events, statistics, the law of large numbers and the like to people who are otherwise pretty clever (I'm an expert on the subject). Hardly anyone ever understood or believed me. People love to believe that, when a coin has shown heads 5 times in a row, tails becomes more likely and are willing to bet on tails (I'd be more willing to bet on heads since it's not even proved yet that tails can come at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

yoursmine · #3 03-30-2007, 03:56 PM

I approached the argument this way. I mentioned that in any large data set you can always find events that seem statistically improbable. I even used Raymers finishes in the main event in 04 and 05 to demonstrate this.
So if you look at past data such as lottery results you can always find something weird about the distribution of winning numbers. I explained that with a twice weekly lottery that has been running for 18 years you have a very tiny sample of data to examine. To say anything about it is mathematical heresy.
I know this guy is going to hit me over the head with this nonsense this week. I think I am going to bet him I can flip 3 heads in a row and see if he will give me 10 to 1 on it or better. lol

DWarrior · #4 03-30-2007, 08:06 PM

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I approached the argument this way.

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Why would you even bother.

PairTheBoard · #5 03-31-2007, 02:22 AM

If you spend that much time in the local bar to be running poker tournies I'd think you would have gotten used to hearing foolish talk by now.

PairTheBoard

yoursmine · #6 03-31-2007, 10:59 AM

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If you spend that much time in the local bar to be running poker tournies I'd think you would have gotten used to hearing foolish talk by now.

PairTheBoard

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I am used to it. For some reason I feel the need to refute this guy even though its probably pointless to try. I should just nod my head and let it go but its gnawing at me. I hear all kinds of ridiculous poker advice that I let slide most of the time because most people are so adamant in their beliefs.

jay_shark · #7 03-31-2007, 12:06 PM

You also have to factor in the chance that he's trying to get on your nerves even though he knows what he's saying is foolish .

There are people out there like that and you just have to try and recognize which ones they are .

yoursmine · #8 03-31-2007, 04:27 PM

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You also have to factor in the chance that he's trying to get on your nerves even though he knows what he's saying is foolish .

There are people out there like that and you just have to try and recognize which ones they are .

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That could be true but hes always been a pretty cool guy in the past. I have no idea what motivation he would have to do that. I think he truly believes what hes saying

Ampelmann · #9 03-31-2007, 06:43 PM

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I think I am going to bet him I can flip 3 heads in a row and see if he will give me 10 to 1 on it or better. lol

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That's exactly the game you want to play against this guy (well, you would want to play this game against anyone, given the coin is fair or unfair in your favor, but he may be willing to lay you odds like this).

BlueBear · #10 04-02-2007, 08:42 AM

This player knows almost nothing of the concept of randomness. If he continues to discuss this matter with you, point him to the Wikipedia's article on the Gambler's Fallacy.