25nl 350BB deep river decision

toomuchforu · #1 08-13-2007, 06:05 PM

villain running 61/3/.05 over about 100
hands. calling station preflop and chases weak draws frequently resulting in his stack. The two of us have very little history. i have been raising his blinds a lot and taking most pots away on the flop or turn. No real clashing

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $89.32
CO: $34.15
Button: $24.30
hero: $94.63
BB: $30.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, hero raises to $1.5, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3.25, 2 players)
hero bets $3, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9.25, 2 players)
hero bets $8.5, UTG calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($26.25, 2 players)
hero ?

I can't decide between value bet or check call reasonable size bet. he hasn't bluffed much but could try to value bet smaller two pair. an 8 seems possible with this guy and more likely than him flopping a straight because he would have raised the turn at least if not the flop...what line do you like here?

wslee00 · #2 08-13-2007, 06:12 PM

dude - please bet this, like 18-20

Milky · #3 08-13-2007, 06:12 PM

Would this be a good spot for a blocking/value bet? Bet $10 or so and if raised you can fold since his AF is fairly low...

wslee00 · #4 08-13-2007, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would this be a good spot for a blocking/value bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
you are not throwing out a blocking bet - it is strictly a value bet. - i don't know how you can put him on an 8 here.

toomuchforu · #5 08-13-2007, 06:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know how you can put him on an 8 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

he could easily have q8, T8 or 89 here. without a doubt. i'm thinking that bet/folding is the best option here but given that he could easily be donking around with an 8 here makes me a little weary of leading.

Student Caine · #6 08-13-2007, 06:34 PM

Given his lack of aggression here I think that we bet out about $20. If he has his straight he will either raise or call - if he raises we drop.

If all we do is check call we stand to lose the same amount (assuming that he bets about $20) if he has his straight, but we have no chance to win that same $20 if he has not hit his straight and checks it down. Based upon this, I think that checking is -EV. Anyone see this as flawed?

GRUNCH:

PREFLOP: Typical raise, well done.

FLOP: The cbet is obviously a must and we cannot assume that he will lead out. Do you think that, given his fishy nature, we may want to bet the pot here? I am assuming that you bet just under pot as it was in-line with your typical cbet, but is this guy clueless enough to where a full pot bet is warranted?

Turn: Bet again, standard. I have the same question about this bet size as the flop.

River: Discussed above.

InfectorGadget · #7 08-13-2007, 06:35 PM

Just as easily as he could have Qx, Tx and 9x. As wslee00 said, I dont know how you can put him on an 8? He could just as easily chased with the K or an J, not to mention all the other hands like TP and 2pair.

Id value bet this. On the other hand, if you bet and he raises you, that would be a harder spot.

ama0330 · #8 08-13-2007, 06:45 PM

For the love of god BET make it $20 to go

toomuchforu · #9 08-13-2007, 06:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given his lack of aggression here I think that we bet out about $20. If he has his straight he will either raise or call - if he raises we drop.

If all we do is check call we stand to lose the same amount (assuming that he bets about $20) if he has his straight, but we have no chance to win that same $20 if he has not hit his straight and checks it down. Based upon this, I think that checking is -EV. Anyone see this as flawed?

GRUNCH:

PREFLOP: Typical raise, well done.

FLOP: The cbet is obviously a must and we cannot assume that he will lead out. Do you think that, given his fishy nature, we may want to bet the pot here? I am assuming that you bet just under pot as it was in-line with your typical cbet, but is this guy clueless enough to where a full pot bet is warranted?

Turn: Bet again, standard. I have the same question about this bet size as the flop.

River: Discussed above.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that i could have bet more on flop and turn here. flop i was hoping he would play back at me because of how often i have been taking pots from him. But that is based on me thinking he is aware of this and tricky and not retarded, so probably full pot is best. Turn as well and probably more so. I pretty much agree entirely .

anyway i checked he bet five into like 27 or whatever and i thought for a moment about check raising then just called and he showed j7. i feel like i lost moeny here on the river and it seems as if i did

C4LL4W4Y · #10 08-13-2007, 06:56 PM

grunch, just value bet...c/c accomplishes nothing as he's probably only going to bet straights, maybe lower sets and two pair. but his calling range is super wide, a lot wider than his betting-when-checked-to range. if you get shoved, it's a pretty easy fold.