QJs 200BB deep & I have the button

[keikiwai]

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Raising the flop makes his life very tough if he has AA or KK so I prefer it.

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raising flop makes life tough for AQ and KQs not AA and KK

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Raising turn makes life difficult for everything. It really looks like you flopped a set.

I think OP's line is perfect. BALANCE [censored]

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OP's line does look scary but villain only has $240 left and the pot is $466

[blah-blah-blah]

keik i really didn't think he'd be double barreling air here which is why i decided to turn my hand into a semi-bluff. if i thought he would be double barreling then i would have called. i thought most of his range was AA/KK/AKcc/QQ/33/55 but with the sets being extremely unlikely seeing that I have a Q and he 3bet pre. I don't really float a ton in 3bet pots either.

[goofyballer]

Maths: Assume we have 14 clean outs (which I think is true basically always cause if we're dominated, he folds, sans the 1 combo of QQ)

EV = -$336 + 562(% he folds) + 14/44*$811*(% he calls)
0 = -$336 + 562x + 14/44*811*(1-x)
336 = 562x + 258 - 258x
336 = 304x + 258
78 = 304x
~0.25 = x = % he folds

So if he folds > 1/4th of the time, WE PROFIT! And sure he's getting 3:1, but does he really want to put >1 buyin into the pot in this spot? (yes, I know it's only pot odds that matter, but when you consider the size of the pot then the fact that OP is willing to play for 2 buyins is clearly intimidating to his opponent, even w/ AA)


And fwiw, I think that if you call here you're stacking him on the riv way less than you think you are when you hit, because a.) you're never getting to the river with hands capable of bluffing on this board b.) you aren't value betting worse than AA/KK if you're checked to

[keikiwai]

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keik i really didn't think he'd be double barreling air here which is why i decided to turn my hand into a semi-bluff. if i thought he would be double barreling then i would have called. i thought most of his range was AA/KK/AKcc/QQ/33/55 but with the sets being extremely unlikely seeing that I have a Q and he 3bet pre. I don't really float a ton in 3bet pots either.

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but the only hand he folds there is AKcc.... and if he's frustrated he'll even call w/ that and really this would be a very odd line for AKcc

[goofyballer]

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but the only hand he folds there is AKcc.... and if he's frustrated he'll even call w/ that and really this would be a very odd line for AKcc

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fwiw, I think villain calling with KK regardless of pot odds here is really, really bad and the only hand he should show up with with any frequency is AA, which can still be a fold.

[keikiwai]

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And fwiw, I think that if you call here you're stacking him on the riv way less than you think you are when you hit, because a.) you're never getting to the river with hands capable of bluffing on this board b.) you aren't value betting worse than AA/KK if you're checked to

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i agree that calling turn is awkward, which makes the whole hand awkward, but i'm fairly certain raising flop is better than raising turn because our FE is higher on the flop than the turn

[blah-blah-blah]

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And fwiw, I think that if you call here you're stacking him on the riv way less than you think you are when you hit, because a.) you're never getting to the river with hands capable of bluffing on this board b.) you aren't value betting worse than AA/KK if you're checked to

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i agree that calling turn is awkward, which makes the whole hand awkward, but i'm fairly certain raising flop is better than raising turn because our FE is higher on the flop than the turn

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??? can u explain y you think our FE is higher on the flop?

[goofyballer]

Raising flop is hot too. I guess I should have said that OP's line is perfect once he got to the turn that way, cause on the turn shove >>>>>>> call >>>>>>>>>>>&gt ; fold.

[keikiwai]

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And fwiw, I think that if you call here you're stacking him on the riv way less than you think you are when you hit, because a.) you're never getting to the river with hands capable of bluffing on this board b.) you aren't value betting worse than AA/KK if you're checked to

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i agree that calling turn is awkward, which makes the whole hand awkward, but i'm fairly certain raising flop is better than raising turn because our FE is higher on the flop than the turn

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??? can u explain y you think our FE is higher on the flop?

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cause the pot is smaller and your line looks scary like you're willing to play for stacks, which he may not want

once villain donks twice and has close to 1/2 his stack in, the threat of "playing for stacks" is gone, since he's obv. ready to throw down, he's just not folding ime except if he's got no pair, or maybe something like KQ

[keikiwai]

EDIT: MISREAD HAND