Big fold with top pair and nfd

[Fonkey123]

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i fold A6s-A9s alot in EP

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Thats really bad imo

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Depends how tough the game is.

[tufat23]

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Since there are a lot of good arguments here for both sides and still no conclusion, I decided to make some calculations. Hopefully they will help a little.

If he always has a set and pays off when we hit, and SB always folds:

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47

Then we lose $8.


He might also have combo-draws. T8, T7, 87, 75, 54, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97; 10 combinations. The sets are 9 combinations.
He doesn't play all of them like this preflop, flop and turn. Lets take the 2 most probable ones, T9 and 98, and say he plays them like this. Lets also assume he never bluffs them, and stacks off on any heart.

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54
-$54*9/11 = -$44

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47
$47*9/11 = $38.5

He hits
-$66*5/44 = -$7.5
-$7.5*2/11 = -$1.4

Both miss
$151*32/44 = $109.8
$109.8*2/11 = $20

Both hits
$259*7/44 = $41.2
$41.2*2/11 = $7.5

$38.5+$20+$7.5-$44-$1.4 = $20.6

In that case we win $20

Using the same calculations, and asuming he only plays T9 like this, nets us $8.


Using all of the calculations above and assuming he folds his set when we hit, our net is -$27.5 $4.5 -$9.5 respectively. And if he folds it half of the time: -$18 $12.5 -$1.


I don't think he can fold a set very often, and I think he plays some of his combo-draws like this, so I think it's a call. But sitting at the table, I could have a different/better read, and it could very well be a fold.
If you think it's really close, you might want to fold, since it's a high variance play.

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is it bad that i never bother to follow the math in these types of analysis?


someone check the numbers, but my basic feel is call. unlikely to have high reverse implied and we have a lot of outs yo


also call so sb can call so that he can hit a flush too. if sb shoves and bb calls, its not the best but call and suckout ldo

[jc1418]

dont think you can just say raise AXs from any position, i raise alotta hands as is, A2-5 and AT-Ks have straight potential thats why i fold A6s-A9s in ep. Its pretty ridiculous IMO to say just raise all AXs from anyposition, its really dependent on table dynamics and your image. You will probably flame me for this next comment, but when I am utg and have 3 calling stations to my left I open limp. To say you must raise Axs from any position is bad. There are more sensitive hands than Axs that I raise from ep. I don't just have standard hand cutoffs, it all depends on how my table is playing. I think each situation is different in poker its not so easy as to say that all Axs should be raised from any position.

[carnivalhobo]

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It's not a cop out. Its solid advice. FYI my stats are 25/22/3 so I am not nitty. Raising this hand UTG is -EV. Why discuss this hand further when its a leak. Try raising suited connectors UTG rather than Ace rag (oh but its sooted....bah!)

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look at a winning players db over a good sample (200kish hands) and these Axs hands are all solid winners. Think about the hands you win big pots with. Nut draws are v. strong. But really, go away troll.

[jc1418]

its not a crime to fold Axs utg, and its not bad to raise with it either, if there was a player to my left I wanted to play a pot with I might raise AXs utg, if Ive raised the last 2-3 hands and the table is tough or a bunch of stations i could call/fold Axs utg. I think its ridiculous say its clear cut what you should do w A4s utg everytime. People in this forum seem to be on auto pilot alot alot, and that is not good. ANd it is possible to have a style different thatn that of a winning player and still show profit yourself.

[Noam Chomsky]

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i fold A6s-A9s alot in EP

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Thats really bad imo

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Depends how tough the game is.

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and this is why I hate these pf comments wrt open raises. there are so many variables that determine optimal pf strategy, none of which are mentioned or even alluded to in the op and people just cop out with these goofy blanket statements about what isn't optimal for them.

It's a god damned open raise!! We're not calling a raise, we're not calling a three bet, we're open raising and this can be profitable with any two cards given the right conditions.

[tufat23]

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dont think you can just say raise AXs from any position, i raise alotta hands as is, A2-5 and AT-Ks have straight potential thats why i fold A6s-A9s in ep. Its pretty ridiculous IMO to say just raise all AXs from anyposition, its really dependent on table dynamics and your image. You will probably flame me for this next comment, but when I am utg and have 3 calling stations to my left I open limp. To say you must raise Axs from any position is bad. There are more sensitive hands than Axs that I raise from ep. I don't just have standard hand cutoffs, it all depends on how my table is playing. I think each situation is different in poker its not so easy as to say that all Axs should be raised from any position.

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if i had 3 calling stations behind me id raise Axo for value no? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

i get ure point about about doing different things in different spots, but usually you should look to open Axs early

[jc1418]

hmm i always figured if you have 3 stations behind you its better to open limp Axs. I mean i also dont cbet multiway that much so that could be a large difference in our strategies. You might be able to outplay several people postflop oop, but then again if theyre stations youre prob not cbetting without floppin the flush or at least ur draw with a possible over that may be good. what advantage is there to raising Axs with 3 stations to your left? obviously you create a large pot for when you do hit it, but does that outweigh the times you miss it and need to check fold because you cant c bet into these guys? I find when I limp and flop the flush or the draw I do not have a problem building a large pot with fish anyway

[tufat23]

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its not a crime to fold Axs utg, and its not bad to raise with it either, if there was a player to my left I wanted to play a pot with I might raise AXs utg, if Ive raised the last 2-3 hands and
the table is tough or a bunch of stations i could call/fold Axs utg. I think its ridiculous
say its clear cut what you should do w A4s utg everytime. People in this forum seem to be on auto pilot alot alot, and that is not good. ANd it is possible to have a style different thant that of a winning player and still show profit yourself.

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wtf was this the edit when i was replying to ure thread?

sigh.



$50 freeroll for the super duper keen
















<font color="white"> clue: i do not know what not to do. might have been a ton. only one winner yo </font>


editted yo

[ASPoker8]

I think in a typical game, it is +EV to open AXs from any position.

I don't think this is a minor or neglible mistake to openfold AXs.

There is clear value in opening AXs and as long as you can play well postflop, its way +EV.

Folding is 0EV and will reduce variance, but it will also reduce your winrate because you are passing up +EV spots imo.