Raise on turn with OESD and overcards to protect hand?

maverickai · #1 11-10-2007, 03:35 AM

BB is 61.4/12/3/1.0,1.1,2.0 after 57 hands

Ultimate Bet 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (9 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, HERO raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, HERO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, HERO raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, HERO calls.

I'm raised on the flop, to add value, and to protect my overcards. Protecting to chase SB out if he's holding any spades for a backdoor flush draw, or a weak poc pair.

SB re-raised, signalling he's got cards like AK, QQ+. If I hit my str, I'll extract much value thru the flop bets.

So the question is, is it the best line by me to raise on this flop?

Aaron W. · #2 11-10-2007, 03:44 AM

I would just call. You should be concerned that BB is never folding AK before the river and his preflop 3-betting range includes a lot of hands that will not slow down. Your K outs are probably not as clean as you hope they are, and there's a real chance you don't have as many live aces to draw to than you might think.

Wetdog · #3 11-10-2007, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BB is 61.4/12/3/1.0,1.1,2.0 after 57 hands

Ultimate Bet 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (9 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, HERO raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, HERO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, HERO raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, HERO calls.

I'm raised on the flop, to add value, and to protect my overcards. Protecting to chase SB out if he's holding any spades for a backdoor flush draw, or a weak poc pair.

SB re-raised, signalling he's got cards like AK, QQ+. If I hit my str, I'll extract much value thru the flop bets.

So the question is, is it the best line by me to raise on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but:

You're not raising to protect, you're raising for value.

You aren't driving off 4 flush draws ever. They will be your constant companions. You aren't going anywhere, neither are they.

Harv72b · #4 11-10-2007, 03:48 AM

Raise--->Call--->Fold. For the exact reasons you mentioned.

neurotiq · #5 11-10-2007, 03:51 AM

You don't have a made hand, so there's nothing to protect. If you're raising at this point, it's for value.

That said, I'd probably just call the flop. Your overcard outs could be tainted, given preflop action. The presence of a flush draw could also taint some of your outs.

maverickai · #6 11-10-2007, 04:46 AM

On hind sight, calling is better. The 9s could be counted as 3.5 outs (discounting for aflush), K as 1 out, Q as 1 out.

Just a quick question. Can you value raise and protect your hand at the same time? What kinda situation would it be? Eg, like having AKs as over cards, and a flush draw on the flop?

Or hitting your set, and raising for value, and also protect against potential flushes?

Harv72b · #7 11-10-2007, 05:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You don't have a made hand, so there's nothing to protect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have the best hand, which is why the raise isn't for hand protection. You raise here because doing so might clean up outs (for example, SB holds AK & BB has QQ, or BB has AK & SB has AQ, or when SB has a singleton [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), it might buy you a free card, and every so often (not very often at these stakes) it might buy you the pot when BB was betting unimproved overcards or an underpair. In any case, getting things heads up will increase the number of times you win this pot, even if only by a couple of percentage points. Since our draw is strong enough that we'll clearly be seeing the river, it's better to get there heads up vs. 3-handed.

MoonOrb · #8 11-10-2007, 05:55 AM

I'm not entirely sure that a raise here is for value. With only two opponents, you have to win more than one third of the time for the raise to be for value, right?

I really don't like your overcards as outs here since (1) the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could very well be filling a flush or straight; (2) you could easily be up against AQ or AK and be outkicked; (3) BB's betting suggests some of these are in his hand and not in the deck.

Also, I don't think you can count all 8 OESD as outs, either, given the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] make flushes.

Better to estimate your outs at around 8 or 8.5, I think. That makes you a 2:1 underdog to make your hand. So this is a breakeven proposition with both vills calling.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean about protecting your hand from a weak pocket pair. You're losing to a weak pocket pair.

I'd call here.

[ QUOTE ]
Can you value raise and protect your hand at the same time? What kinda situation would it be? Eg, like having AKs as over cards, and a flush draw on the flop?

Or hitting your set, and raising for value, and also protect against potential flushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

The opportunity to make calling a flush draw incorrect will be very rare as flush draws almost always will have the correct odds to call.

But I'll take a guess at when you might be raising for value/protecting your hand--there's another current post where MP was the preflop raiser with 88 and is bet into on a JJ4 flop with the CO still to act. In that case, the raise is for value since MP is likely ahead of the flop bettor who is probably not holding a J, but has a vulnerable hand as overcards to his 8s beat him. So it's good to face the CO with 2 cold making a 6 out call unprofitable.

maverickai · #9 11-10-2007, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't have a made hand, so there's nothing to protect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have the best hand, which is why the raise isn't for hand protection. You raise here because doing so might clean up outs (for example, SB holds AK & BB has QQ, or BB has AK & SB has AQ, or when SB has a singleton [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), it might buy you a free card, and every so often (not very often at these stakes) it might buy you the pot when BB was betting unimproved overcards or an underpair. In any case, getting things heads up will increase the number of times you win this pot, even if only by a couple of percentage points. Since our draw is strong enough that we'll clearly be seeing the river, it's better to get there heads up vs. 3-handed.

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At these stakes, players who are holding on to hands like AK, QQ, AQ on a board like this will almost never give up. I think even a player who held ATs, and hit the T, will not give up too. Basically, raising and calling is pretty close here. If the stakes were higher, raising would have increase more percentage points as I will be more likely to see the river HU.

Is using equity appropriate to explain the situation that I'm facing on the flop here? I'm trying to link the concepts together so that I can apply when I'm in the game. From what I understand from SSHE, equity is used for deciding a bet or raise, while pot odds is used for calling when on a draw.

Smurph64 · #10 11-10-2007, 08:49 AM

Nope. Assume nothing here other than 99+. Against 2 a raise is a misplayed hand, you don't have the equity. You have a lot of outs however. 10 likely.