Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL

[DJ Sensei]

def looks like a shove to me, he'll talk himself into a call with AA in this huge pot more often than he'll show up with a better hand, I think.

[SA125]

"He even said something about it might be time to go home, which I’ve found is very often a signal of strength."

True, but rarely a monster. I find the vast majority of the time they do have a good hand but know it's easily beat and could in fact send them home.

Knowing how he'd think you'd play AK there is key to his hand.

He can't have AA here. He made it 80 pf, 3 callers, then BB makes it 480 str with about 3K left. Just calling pf there with AA makes no sense. Same for KK.

That leaves AK-99. If he has AK then he gives you either AK-99-22 and would explain his line.
With the pot so big and stacks being offered like 4-1 or 5-1, he should be more inclined to value bet the river with 99 rather than induce a bluff.

I'd push and expect to be called by AK. Only reason not too would be if you'd expect he'd lay down rather than get felted with AK there. Even at that big a price.

[PoorUser]

get this in any way possible...espcially given river action
how do you call 3k on flop with the intention of not wanting to get the 4k behind in at some point..

bet and call checkraise

[duck_butter]

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Is It possible he can have AA here given pf or will villian always 4 bet?

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Thanks bigballz - I never considered Chubs for AA here. He wants to protect his big stack he’s built and by allowing at least 2 opponents (and very likely 3 or more) to see a flop against his AA is a horrible way to hang on to the stack he’s built. I think a 4 bet pf is mandatory given the action and the likeliness that at least myself (if not 2 others as well) will also call.

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I think it's more likely that he has 999 and played it like this than that he has AK and played it like this and will pay you off. Are you ahead 50% of the time when called/raised? Very doubtful. I'd check against player as described.

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Thanks TWP – I really like your logic here. I feel he has a hard time calling off 3500 more with a worse hand, unless he can convince himself to because of the size of the pot. However there is some bet size on my part that must be a mandatory call for him based on the pot size. This was a consideration in the line I took and could have backfired if he indeed c/r me AI.

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As to your read that Chubs thinks his hand is very strong, obviously the read is correct. But that doesn't mean that he necessarily flopped a set.

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Thanks sards – A good point and something that I rehashed in my head before making my decision on the river.

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I think on the river you have to shove here. I don't see how there is any way Chubs checks ALL the way down here with kkk or 999 especially on the river. If he has 999 and he was afraid of you having kkk surely he can't think that anymore after you check the turn. And if he has kkk surely he bets the river EVERY time with this, since if he was trying to induce another bet by you on the turn and you didn't bite then I am guessing he would have to bet the river. If I had 999 here and I was him I would be trying to get money out of you in a sidepot because it is very likely Bears may have kkk here. I think Chubs has either poorly played AA here(by not 4 betting pre when it seemed very likely that he could be in a 5-way pot oop with AA) or ak.

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Thanks IShearSheep – I agree completely with your analysis with the exception of it being very likely that Bears has KKK. I thought it was most likely that Chubs had AK (not AA because of my reasoning above, and yes he would have been playing it poorly).

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By the way, are you the same duck butter that use to play a lot of limit on empire and party before doomsday?

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No, I have never used Duck Butter as my screen name and never played on Empire.

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I think you would have to bet extremely small in order to get him to call with AK; he'd basically be calling hoping to chop.

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The fact that it seems unlikely for him to play a bigger set this way has to be weighed against the fact that it's unlikely for him to actually payoff with worse.

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Thanks soah – the first point I seriously considered and factored into the line I took. Second point is very well said.




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He flopped top two or has AK. Put the rest in and hope he calls. Nothing else makes enough sense to have you check behind him twice.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks cero z – This is what I ended up concluding at the table, although I decided against shoving.

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but calling flop is a crime IMO.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks whorasaurus – I think this statement is pretty extreme. And apparently you now do as well. =)

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wouldn't it be crazy if villian knows that when you overcalled the flop, the only hand that would make sense is 999 or 222. and if he has 999 or KKK then he knows you don't have 999 so 222 is the only hand you have.
so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.
this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..
p.s. i'm high.

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Thanks jungy – yes, I think you are trying to think on too many levels here….or perhaps its because you’re high.

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villain likely does not have KK (or AA for that matter) b/c he likely would have 4-bet preflop to shut yall out of the pot, especially when everyone's sitting deep.
and i dont think he'd check 99 on the river after you checked behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks Drag – I agree completely.

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Logic on QQ/JJ is thinks his overbet shove and the unlikelyhood of one villain holding AA/KK gets folds on the flop from his massive strength.

[/ QUOTE ] If you reread my OP you’ll see he actually made a pot sized bet against 5 players which is the only bet he can make if he is going to bet.

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he should be more inclined to value bet the river with 99 rather than induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks SA125 but there is no bluff to induce here. But yes, he should certainly value bet 99.

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bet and call checkraise

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks Grimstarr – you’re the only person who advocates betting the river but not shoving. Which is actually what I did. Although I must admit I think shoving is the most logical bet if I am going to bet given the pot size.


For all the reasons listed in this thread I ended up deciding my opponent must have AK. I also deduced that he could not call my AI bet of 3500 because he really didn’t want to lose his stack and I obviously appear to be very strong. Against a normal player if I bet I’m going to shove due to the pot size and I really think that shoving is the only logical bet almost all of the time. I inferred that my read on Chubs being VERY strong must have been a mistake due to the logic of the way the hand was played. I decided to bet 1200 into an 11580 pot thinking Chubs would have to call this amount with AK hoping to chop, but that he couldn’t call much more. And of course I was prepared to call a c/r AI, although be very unhappy about it. Chubs in fact CALLED me and flipped over 99. When I seemed perplexed he made a comment that the “pot was big enough.”
Due to this ridiculous statement and him check calling down here with 99 I can only conclude that he was playing scared and playing at stakes over his comfort level. He obviously was afraid that I just might have KK here although it made 0 sense given the preflop action.

[TheWorstPlayer]

i win. even though i agree with what everyone said who argued for a bet. i just dont think they were weighing the player description enough, though. it was a very precise description...

[blainestar]

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I decided to bet 1200 into an 11580 pot thinking Chubs would have to call this amount with AK hoping to chop, but that he couldn’t call much more. And of course I was prepared to call a c/r AI, although be very unhappy about it. Chubs in fact CALLED me and flipped over 99.

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WOW at live poker.

I still think shoving the river is the best play. I just don't get the logic of calling ~3K on a dry flop like that. Then not being THRILLED to get our last ~3500ish AI( in a 11.5K pot!) on the river after villain checks it twice.