nl50: big draw vs big overbet on flop

[Frawa]

villain is 43/5/0.44
no idea about guy behind me

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $122.05
BTN: $58.60
SB: $59
BB: $41.40
UTG: $37.10

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $4.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Flop: ($13.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $36.90 and is All-In</font>, 2 folds

[Nemesis69]

9 spades and 3 6s --&gt; 12 outs &amp; 4 --&gt; 48%

You need to pay 36.90 to win 50.56$, So this is a call, a high variance call, but meh you're getting the right odds.

[Phildo]

Looks pretty standard. 12 outs at best (your FD outs may be counterfeited if he's doing this with AKs or AQs, but I think there's a real good chance this is AA or KK that freaked out seeing a drawy flop), and you're not getting odds to draw.

Edit: I suck at maths (especially at 7 in the morning after a few hours of drinking). Still don't think you can count all your outs as clean

[Frawa]

[ QUOTE ]
9 spades and 3 6s --&gt; 12 outs &amp; 4 --&gt; 48%

You need to pay 36.90 to win 50.56$, So this is a call, a high variance call, but meh you're getting the right odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really THAT easy? i think we have to assume that BB has a set sometimes , so he redraws quite often
plus the guy binh will call with a better FD sometimes 2

[pdoran10]

meh its probably really close equity/pot odds wise, but i like to gambool so i call.

[Ranma4703]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
9 spades and 3 6s --&gt; 12 outs &amp; 4 --&gt; 48%

You need to pay 36.90 to win 50.56$, So this is a call, a high variance call, but meh you're getting the right odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really THAT easy? i think we have to assume that BB has a set sometimes , so he redraws quite often
plus the guy binh will call with a better FD sometimes 2

[/ QUOTE ]
He reraised preflop. If the board was AKQ and went c/c and the turn was a 5, would you put him on 55? No, because he reraised preflop. The fact that it is out there doesn't put it in his range. Guy behind will not call with a fd, he doesn't have odds.

[latvianbitch]

I don't see call there. If willian plays his "normal" game, i can put him on reraise range QQ+, AKs (spades is worst case). You are small, but underdog.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
i like to gambool so i call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[traz]

depending on his range you're either getting slightly good or slightly bad odds, so I probably call and gambool it up

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see call there. If willian plays his "normal" game, i can put him on reraise range QQ+, AKs (spades is worst case). You are small, but underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but pot odds make it +EV. Not by much, but it's a small edge.