Party Poker is up to Something

[DeadMoneyDad]

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He just announced that he wasn't going through with one of his planned December sales. Hard to see how he is breaking any law since he is neither buying nor selling shares. It's not illegal to just decide to hold shares AFAIK.


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If I read the OP correctly, it was a stock option excerise. That means he has the option on X number of stocks at a given price. If it was his plan to excerise those options and then sell them immediately for market price, and all he has done is decide not to sell them right away then he is buying stock.

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OP: "LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The world's biggest listed online gaming firm, PartyGaming (PRTY.L: Quote, Profile , Research), said on Monday its chief executive, Mitch Garber, had taken options for 3.5 million shares and reversed previous plans to sell a chunk of stock."


This is a pretty strong PR statement by a CEO.

Insiders in most markets have to announce plans to sell or acquire large holdings.

To reverse previous planned sales and to announce having "taken options" is about as bullish as you can get on a stock short of outright open market purchases. It did not say anything about the terms of the options given. Nor did it say the CEO planned to exercise them. This could simply be an indication of a cash flow problem as anything else.

If he had spent 3.5 million or even the 80 million or so to purchase 3.5 million shares as implied in the story that would be different.

In poker terms he's decided not to cash out some chips from the table or "rat hole" them, and he is acting like he is going to make a big bet. He just hasn't done any real betting yet.


D$D

[fnord_too]

Well, there was a wisp of a rumor that Party was going to be re entering the US market soon (N 82, in one of the AP threads dropped this little bomb shell with an "I'm not going to say anything else so don't even ask" note on the end). No idea what info he was basing that on, but this little tidbit raises my hope slightly (though it is still pretty low).

[DeadMoneyDad]

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Well, there was a wisp of a rumor that Party was going to be re entering the US market soon (N 82, in one of the AP threads dropped this little bomb shell with an "I'm not going to say anything else so don't even ask" note on the end). No idea what info he was basing that on, but this little tidbit raises my hope slightly (though it is still pretty low).

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It seems to me PP has only 2 options; sell their customer lists as their value as an on-going concern is decreasing daily, or hope to salvage some market share if there is movement soon.

IMO the people that think PP might be what it once was are delusional. First of all both the poker community and the poker economy has changed quite a bit. To think that all the "fish" that used to populate PP have simply hibernated and are eagerly awaiting PP to line up to be cleaned after fattening up is a crack pipe dream.

There are things coming in the near future to the on-line world that IMO will change on-line poker again. Eventual US "legal" on-line poker will not turn the clock back to 2005. Yes perhaps your $10 a week recreational players will return but even they have improved their games in bar leagues and home games.

This IMO is why PP is facing such a delima. If they open up like Doyle's Room without a US processor they are no different from anyone else are not "fish friendly." If they wait until '09 or later for clean legislation, they "re-enter" with quite a few new competitors. So now IMO they are just trying to maximize their value to a buyer.


D$D

[Doc T River]

To paraphrase an old saying, there's a fish born every minute. If PP does come back, some of the players will no longer be fish, some of the fish won't come back, but there will be new fish to take their place if the site is a nice one.

But we need PP to come back if only to hear that crazy jingle.

[Legislurker]

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Well, there was a wisp of a rumor that Party was going to be re entering the US market soon (N 82, in one of the AP threads dropped this little bomb shell with an "I'm not going to say anything else so don't even ask" note on the end). No idea what info he was basing that on, but this little tidbit raises my hope slightly (though it is still pretty low).

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It seems to me PP has only 2 options; sell their customer lists as their value as an on-going concern is decreasing daily, or hope to salvage some market share if there is movement soon.

IMO the people that think PP might be what it once was are delusional. First of all both the poker community and the poker economy has changed quite a bit. To think that all the "fish" that used to populate PP have simply hibernated and are eagerly awaiting PP to line up to be cleaned after fattening up is a crack pipe dream.

There are things coming in the near future to the on-line world that IMO will change on-line poker again. Eventual US "legal" on-line poker will not turn the clock back to 2005. Yes perhaps your $10 a week recreational players will return but even they have improved their games in bar leagues and home games.

This IMO is why PP is facing such a delima. If they open up like Doyle's Room without a US processor they are no different from anyone else are not "fish friendly." If they wait until '09 or later for clean legislation, they "re-enter" with quite a few new competitors. So now IMO they are just trying to maximize their value to a buyer.






D$D

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When PP puts $100 in their accounts and emails/calls them they will come back. If they have easy deposit options they will deposit. Party worked for the average person somehow someway. You can't just dismiss their branding success. Stars would be #2 again in 2 weeks.

[BluffTHIS!]

Party has an aging customer list as noted above, and it's only aging faster. And party's success in reaching the #1 spot was a result of one thing: advertising. Without that advertising, they can't be #1 again unless they offer something stars doesn't like especially good games.

But in absence of massive television advertising, there's no reason to believe party would be any more successful in today's situation than stars is. If the TV networks would show some backbone and fight legal actions and intimidation against .net sites that would be different, but apparently they won't.

[Grasshopp3r]

Here are the numbers on Party: http://www.partygaming.com/investor/...l_summary.html
http://www.partygaming.com/images/do..._2007-2008.pdf

In my opinion, they have been successful in scaling down their costs to their reduced business. They are still growing. They can scale back up quickly. I think that they are also large enough to set up their own deposit services, which would bypass the UIGEA.

The easiest path for them is to sell out to a US company so that they can get back into the US. They can make money outside of the US. They are not going away.

[Legislurker]

Personally, I think they could benefit sharing legal/transaction costs with bwin,888, crypto, and B2b. Don't merge the networks, but work together on a payment processor they would all float public when its feasible. And get in court in the US somehow someway.

[pokerpunchout]

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Well, there was a wisp of a rumor that Party was going to be re entering the US market soon (N 82, in one of the AP threads dropped this little bomb shell with an "I'm not going to say anything else so don't even ask" note on the end). No idea what info he was basing that on, but this little tidbit raises my hope slightly (though it is still pretty low).

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems to me PP has only 2 options; sell their customer lists as their value as an on-going concern is decreasing daily, or hope to salvage some market share if there is movement soon.

IMO the people that think PP might be what it once was are delusional. First of all both the poker community and the poker economy has changed quite a bit. To think that all the "fish" that used to populate PP have simply hibernated and are eagerly awaiting PP to line up to be cleaned after fattening up is a crack pipe dream.

There are things coming in the near future to the on-line world that IMO will change on-line poker again. Eventual US "legal" on-line poker will not turn the clock back to 2005. Yes perhaps your $10 a week recreational players will return but even they have improved their games in bar leagues and home games.

This IMO is why PP is facing such a delima. If they open up like Doyle's Room without a US processor they are no different from anyone else are not "fish friendly." If they wait until '09 or later for clean legislation, they "re-enter" with quite a few new competitors. So now IMO they are just trying to maximize their value to a buyer.






D$D

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When PP puts $100 in their accounts and emails/calls them they will come back. If they have easy deposit options they will deposit. Party worked for the average person somehow someway. You can't just dismiss their branding success. Stars would be #2 again in 2 weeks.

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I totally agree. This is the main problem I have with Party detractors saying how Party Poker would not regain share if it came back, ... the people forget the great bonus program Party had. This attracted all kinds of casual players and fish. Party made it simple to deposit $100 or $200 every month and receive 100%, or %50 bonuses on these deposits for playing very little. No other site does this now days. If Party comes back and re-institutes this, or a similar, bonus policy combined with an easy deposit and withdraw option, the fish and casual players will return, and Party could easily be #1 again.

[Legislurker]

The bonus program might bother some players now that its ubergay. Points are too confusing for joe schmoe lose 100 when im drunk. Party wasnt tied to just advertizing. They got internet poker consumerism somehow. People preferred them, and people came back to play again that other sites would have lost.