Folding an Overpair late

[cero_z]

Hi Everyone,

If you thought the last one was bad, you'll love this one, I'm sure. $100 Full Tilt 6-Max tourney. 431 players, down to ~30, I'm in the top 5 in chips with 93K, which is about double the average. Blinds are 600/1200 with 150 ante, everyone else at the table has about 40-50K, and we've been playing together a long time, so they view me as LAG but not maniacal. I've stolen more than my share since doubling up, but the average stacks, who are decent TAGs, have occasionally shoved over my open.

Usually I've folded, but 2 times I insta-called smaller stacks (~15K and 20K) with 33 and A9o, not because I absolutely loved the spots, but because they were slightly +EV calls IMO and I wanted to sell the impression that I would insta-call with anything reasonable. I've made quite a bit of headway stealing, and that's basically the special reasoning I used in this hand.

The hand previous, I stole the blinds from UTG with a 3K open. Now I pick up 99 in the hijack (UTG+1) and raise to 3K. The CO (53K) and BTN (40K) both call. The blinds fold.

Flop (11,700): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] .
I lead for 6K, CO makes it 16,500, BTN folds, I fold.

So I know that I'm not supposed to include results, but I did here for this reason: I understand that jamming the flop is the obvious play here, but I didn't make it for specific reasons. I want to know what you think of my fold. Pros: I have a big hand, I've been a bully, and given that, in a cash game with similar stacks I would never fold at this juncture (sometimes call and re-evaluate, sometimes jam). Cons: a)People were rarely just calling the raise pre-flop, unless they were trapping with a big hand. I felt a bigger overpair was fairly likely for the first caller pre-flop. b)I thought my equity from this point was close to 50%, maybe 40%, and if I called and lost, I would no longer be able to steal as easily as I had been. c) I downgrade the likelihood of a big draw somewhat, because he raised with 1/3 of his chips, rather than shoving.

Basically my questions are, do you agree that it's a spot where chip-wise, I should rarely fold, and b) If you do agree with a), then is my reason for folding sufficient, given that there's a large amount already in the pot at this point?

[Cornell Fiji]

oh god no

[Cornell Fiji]

to elaborate:

you will see 8x, 56, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] much more often than you will see a set or TT+

in general, don't make big laydowns on boards with draws out there

[SuperUberBob]

Unless you're against a set or a slowplayed big pair, then you're golden. Bet it out.

[burningyen]

I bet 8k on the flop, but don't mind the fold given the table dynamics (your opponents almost never flatcall, you have an image of a thin caller, and the flop is 3-handed).

[Bakes]

i think u are not good v often at all here and don't mind the laydown at all.

[Kyle Flynn]

What kind of flop were you hoping for with 99?

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of flop were you hoping for with 99?

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to say this post is really dumb for a lot of reasons.
If you are saying this you are assuming that there is a mistake preflop, which there obviously wasn't.
Secondly even if he did make a mistake preflop that doesn't mean he should compound it by making another mistake. If he had 98o here should he shove because "well what type of flop were you expecting" no it means he made a bad preflop raise and now has to adjust and fold.
As for the actual hand I kind of like calling and shoving non diamond turns.
The thing is you are beating a lot of draws, but getting crushed by OPs, sets, etc.

[mlagoo]

yeah i think this is really close, but i usually just stick it in on the flop here. just a super drawy board... and i think that top pair and even pairs like 55-77 are as much a part of his range as are sets, etc (he's "putting a little raise in to see where he's at"). and i think a bunch of those hands don't necessarily fold to a flop shove. and bigger overpairs are definitely possible, but i think in general are weighted at a lower % because at least as a standard play, he's going to 3bet those preflop.

[uberdonk]

i'd def bet more/less on the flop to give myself room to manuver....

I'd expect hands like 77...8X....diamonds...to show up at these spots more often than not
I think if they had 99+ they'd reraise preflop for sure

at these spots i'd usually bet a lil less... induce a raise of some sort by those hands... then reraise them.... if they shove... then i'd fold/call depending on history...

as played...I wouldn't lay that down...esp against trickier opponents