My Hall of Fame Ballot

[Smell The Glove]

It sucks that Lou Whitaker and Tony Fernandez aren't even on the ballot.

[Orel Hershiser]

[ QUOTE ]
It sucks that I'm not even on the ballot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[prohornblower]

Brady Anderson. That's it.

lol, wtf is this a-hole doing on the ballot?

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
Mondo,
Assuming steroids are irrelevant (I know they aren't, but just work under that assumption)
McGwire got on base more often and hit for more power than Rice. They played for a similar amount of time. How is Rice better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rice's raw power numbers came in an era where offensive numbers weren't what they were in McGwire's (and yes, I know Big Mac's first couple of years coincided with the tail end of Rice's career).

For the sake of discussion, let's equate a walk to a single, as in, both are single total bases (though a single probably has a greater liklihood of driving in a run).

Add up walks and hits and Rice has 3100, McGwire has around 2950. Rice had a few more RBIs, and on a lot less HRs, to boot. McGwire struck out 10% more than Rice, in 1/3 less at bats (so even with a higher OBP, he also wasted a much higher % of ABs).

I'm don't know that Rice was better than McGwire (obviously not the case, by OPS). I just don't think a comparison between those two players is what HOF voters will make. Since I'm not a sabrehead, I don't know each one's career VORP+ or what not, and I also think it's impossible to work under the assumption that steroids are irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
Tim Raines' OPS+ was similar to Rice he played for longer and he had much more value running and defensively.

[/ QUOTE ]

The HOF isn't the HOL (for longevity). The difference between Raines' and Rice's OPS and OBP was about the same, with one tilted in Rice's favor, and the other in Raines'. Rice had four 200 hit seasons, Raines none.


[ QUOTE ]
McGwire >>>>>>> Kingman.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt, and that's why McGwire at least gets a reasonable number of votes. But being >>>>>>> Kingman does not = getting into the HOF.

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]

Add up walks and hits and Rice has 3100, McGwire has around 2950.

[/ QUOTE ]

outs:

rice - 6,221
mcgwire - 4,797

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
Mosdef,
All of those similarity scores are pretty low fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even so, it shows that having a huge debate about whether or not he's more similar to Kingman or Killebrew is pretty silly.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]

No, I do not undervalue walks. However, walks are not the tipping point in putting McGwire in the HOF. Not when he's still only a .263 career hitter whose biggest feat is an alarming number of home runs -- and this is even before considering the potential taint to his home run totals.

I dunno whether you're old enough to actually remember Dave Kingman, but when he retired, his 442 home runs were something like 10th all time.

McGwire was certainly a better batter than Kingman -- I'm not saying the two are *exactly alike*. However, Kingman is the most comparable career stat line to McGwire of those who are out there, and given the controversy, I just don't see him getting in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am quite aware of Mark McGwire and Dave Kingman's stats. The fact of the matter is you believe that the most apt comparison to Mark McGwire is a guy who walked half as much as he did in the same amount of at-bats. The only thing they have in common was that Dave Kingman hit a lot of home runs. Dave Kingman was a decent MLB player because he was a historically good home run hitter. Mark McGwire was an amazing player, mostly because he was a historically great home run hitter, but also because he had a career OBP of nearly .400. Mark McGwire is Dave Kingman if Dave Kingman could hit .260, walk 700 more times, and hit 140 more home runs.

[ QUOTE ]
Jim Rice compiled his numbers in a far less offensive era than Raines, and still piled up almost 400 HRs, over .350 OBP, and nearly 2500 hits. Raines' career was 7 years longer, and he only had 150 more hits. A ton of walks, sure, but in a 23 year career?


[/ QUOTE ]

Jim Rice played in Fenway his entire career. Tim Raines played in pitcher's parks his entire career.

Yes, Jim Rice piled up "almost 400 home runs." Congratulations, he hit less home runs than Dale Murphy, Joe Carter, Jose Canseco, Andre Gallarraga, Juan Gonzales, Andre Dawson, Johnny Bench, Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Larry Walker, Chipper Jones, and Frank Howard.

His .352 OBP is nothing to be proud of. The league average OBP over his career (Adjusted for Fenway) was .337. Compare that to Tim Raines, who had an OBP of .385 (to a league average of .331).

Jim Rice's 2500 hits are a function of the fact that he never walked! Jim Rice posted a .298 BA against a league average of .271. Tim Raines put up a .294 BA against a league average of .263. Their batting averages are nearly indistinguishable.

Also, using their years in the league is extremely disengenuous. Jim Rice retired after he was 36 and only had 2 years of less than full-time playing. Tim Raines got called up for a couple cups of coffee stuck around for quite a while after he was no longer playing full time. Jim Rice's sudden retirement masked a decline phase. Had he kept playing until he was 42 he certainly would have had a lower batting average and OBP.

In fact, let's look at Tim Raines' career vs. Jim Rice's career, look at their EqAs. EqA includes stolen bases, values walks correctly, and adjusts for both era and park.

Unsurprisingly, both players have similar plate appearances. Tim Raines has 8648, while Rice has 8755.

Here's a chart of their EqA at different ages.



And here's a chart of their EqAs sorted from highest to lowest.



Tim Raines ends up as a much better hitter by this metric, which should be no surprise since the SLG advantage of Jim Rice is wiped out by park adjustements and Tim Raines' OBP, and the it adds in base-stealing.

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
Jim Thome (826)
Jose Canseco (808)
Carlos Delgado (803)
Harmon Killebrew (783) *
Willie McCovey (767) *
Jason Giambi (756)
Juan Gonzalez (739)
Norm Cash (736)
Dave Kingman (732)
Manny Ramirez (730)

*HOF

Two HOF in top 5, a couple of other probables as well. Also Kingman is in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

And of those, Killebrew and McCovey did most of their damage in a pitcher-dominated era. Rightly or wrongly, I'm pretty sure Canseco, Giambi, and Gonzo don't even get a sniff of Cooperstown. ManRam's probably a cinch to get in.

It's worth noting that Rice compares favorably to both Thome and Delgado, and is several dozen spots above Raines.

Of course, it's equally worth noting that Thome and Delgado are still adding to their stats.

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
I am quite aware of Mark McGwire and Dave Kingman's stats. The fact of the matter is you believe that the most apt comparison to Mark McGwire is a guy who walked half as much as he did in the same amount of at-bats. The only thing they have in common was that Dave Kingman hit a lot of home runs. Dave Kingman was a decent MLB player because he was a historically good home run hitter. Mark McGwire was an amazing player, mostly because he was a historically great home run hitter, but also because he had a career OBP of nearly .400. Mark McGwire is Dave Kingman if Dave Kingman could hit .260, walk 700 more times, and hit 140 more home runs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken, but again, Kingman wasn't dogged by steroid accusations and didn't play in an era where HR numbers almost across the board are being questioned.

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, let's look at Tim Raines' career vs. Jim Rice's career, look at their EqAs. EqA includes stolen bases, values walks correctly, and adjusts for both era and park.

Here's a chart of their EqA at different ages.

Tim Raines ends up as a much better hitter by this metric, which should be no surprise since the SLG advantage of Jim Rice is wiped out by park adjustements and Tim Raines' OBP, and the it adds in base-stealing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's great. So how many BBWAAs actually pay attention to EqA when filling out their ballots? Why does Bill James rank Jim Rice a much more likely HOF candidate than Raines?

I thought the discussion here was who will end up in the HOF and who won't, not whether Player A is better than Player B. A large number of HOF voters are not sabremetricians. And even Rice hasn't made it in thus far after 14 attempts, and certainly may not this time (though I think he will). The fact that Rice isn't in yet, and is ranked by the ultimate stathead as a more likely candidate than Raines, probably says a lot about the odds of Raines getting in.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
It's worth noting that Rice compares favorably to ... Thome

[/ QUOTE ]

This is crazy talk. Thome's career OPS+ is 150. Rice attained that two times and has a career OPS+ of 126. As hitters, they are not on the same plane.