NL10, set oop, villain plays good, drawlike board

[ElectricWaffles]

My 1p.

With a small PP (like 55/66 or lower) in the blinds I prefer checking/calling and looking for a set depending on who is in the pot. If you're correct about this guy being a multitabling TAG type he's probably got a weak/medium hand and wont call a raise from you. So this gives you options:

Option 1: Raise it up, take the 25c profit, make the CB if he calls etc.

Option 2: Just complete, hope that you catch your set and he gets a pair/draw/whatever, then see how much he will throw into the pot before he folds/loses to your set, potentially winning you a lot more. This is the riskier play.

Personally I prefer option two, though i'm not sure if that's text book play with only one limper before you. With more limpers that becomes the only real option.

77 or higher I usually raise if there is a limper or two, I follow it up with a CB on the flop.

On the flop I'd bet 25/30c, just a tad more than you did. My reasoning is that he (button/BB) will call a bet that size with a jack or a FD/SD. Also he's going to be folding a 4 to any size of bet. Probably.

I like what you did on the turn =) i'd come out and bet around pot like you. Sneaking an extra 10c in the pot is awesome, i'm gunna start doing that. My reasoning is that if he'll call a pot sized bet he'll probably call an extra 10c too, it's not much but you're probably ahead so why not see how much you can coax out of him. Every little helps =)

Now then, river... The card of doom has arrived crushing your dreams of an easy hand. I think a bet of around $1.20 would be better against an average $10NL player, if they've not got the flush the third heart will scare them too, so putting in any more than that will scare away hands you beat. If he has the flush he'll let you know.

Which he did. Your call is based on frustration I suppose (which everybody is prone to, myself included). You must focus Daniel-san!

[AlexB182]

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My question to others is, would a shove on the turn be a good play? Villain is more likely on a draw, make him pay!

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I would not like a shove here. Basically, I want to make money in the rare occasions when we flop trips. When we just shove here we can not make money, because he would be forced to laydown every kind of draw except for the very best, like FD + OESD (not possible here, I know, just an example) or FD + TP, something like that. I think the turn bet is just fine, because we give villain the chance to make a mistake by calling without the right odds. If he hits his draw on the river every now and then, well that's the game. If you would have just let it go on the turn to his shove, this hand would have been just fine...

[Elverian]

Typically a sudden all-in like this will represent the nuts/near to it, so not a good river call, but you've already accepted that. If you use the 2nd level thinking you refer to, villain has seen you bet strongly on all streets, and must put you on a made hand. He can't expect you to lay down with so little behind, so this is certainly not a bluff. You played the hand well otherwise, make him pay to draw. The key is not to pay off these big bets when opponents draw out.
A check/call on the river is an OK play for a reasonable sized bet as you can snap off bluffs.

Here is the key - when you have a set like this versus a likely flush draw, 2 of his outs make you a fully, and then you stack him.

[WantToLearn]

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This is very important advise IMO. We have a tight guy who limps and we have a nice pocketpair so raise it up, and bet 99% of the flops. That would also takes his implied odds down on flop and turn.

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I am not sure wether or not I can c-bet that much against him. But: you are very right about his implied odds going down. Good point. Also, if we have a set, we want the money in, and that is easier if the pot is raised.

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If you're correct about this guy being a multitabling TAG type he's probably got a weak/medium hand and wont call a raise from you.

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Actually, the villain had AQs!
Couple of hands later I found out he also likes to open-limp AJo in the small blind.
Sure enough, I wrote down a note.

[ElectricWaffles]

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I am not sure wether or not I can c-bet that much against him. But: you are very right about his implied odds going down. Good point. Also, if we have a set, we want the money in, and that is easier if the pot is raised.


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My 2c. Again i'm playing devil's advocate here.

I'll simplify this by assuming he has two cards higher than you thus in a race you're about 50/50 to win. Am I right in assuming this also means he's going to make a hand on the flop about 25-30% of the time? (If not then my whole point goes to **** but i'll go on anyway...)

Lets say you raise it up PF then make a CBet (say a 50% pot sized bet so it's easier on my brain). You've now stuck in a 40c raise plus a 45c (40+40+10 / 2) CBet totalling nearly $1. Now 25% of the time he's got a good pair and he's going to call, now say another 15% of the time he's going to call and see if you fire a second barrel. That means 40% of the time you're stuck OOP with a puny pair of 3s against TAG whoose just called you on a board probably containing 3 overcards. Following up with a 2nd barrel is going to be hard in this situation without any more info.

So essentially 40% of the time, give or take based on my assumtions, you've lost a dollar. So that's -$0.4 for our total.

The other 60% of the time you win $1 so thats +$0.6, making a total of +$0.2

Now lets say you invest 5c and see a flop. I'm assuming BB checks it. 15% of the time you hit your set and i'm going to assume thats the best hand. I'm also assuming you're folding if you miss the set. So 85% of the time you loose 5c. Thats roughly -$0.04 for our total for this play.

Now lets say you check it and 66% of the time one of them makes a pot sized bet (thats 60c). You then check raise and they fold. That makes adds to our total $0.40 for this play. I'm also ignoring the times they call and you take an even larger pot down on the turn or they call and draw out on you, my poor brain couldn't take that amount of number crunching. Regardless I think the EV calculation there depends more on your ability to know when your set is second best.

Anyway... the total for the limping play is +$0.36. Thats more than the rasing play which gave +$0.2

Does that not also run with the intuative logic that you're raising up a pot where you're OOP with a weak hand thats probably not going to improve against a reasonably good TAG type player.

If my maths and assumtions are bad then feel free to show the correct solution, it's the first time I tried a calculation like that.

[WantToLearn]

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The other 60% of the time you win $1 so thats +$0.6, making a total of +$0.2
(...)
If my maths and assumtions are bad then feel free to show the correct solution, it's the first time I tried a calculation like that.

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Well it´s not the maths, but another thing: the hand is not come to an end those 60% of the time I have won that dollar. There´s two streets to come, also sometimes he will raise my flop bet. Sure, I need to know when to lay down the set, but don´t forget that opponents don´t play perfect, not even those who play good. I will often win a lot more later in the hand.

[No1Addict]

Hi all,

A very interesting hand and great discussion here. Here's my take on it.

1. Pre-flop. I initially agreed with waffles that you should only raise medium poket pairs here (77 and on). But the reasoning behind the raise is that he has a good but not great hand and you want to take the initiative in the hand. If 77 is good for that, so is 33. You have a good read that he bets out when he hits so you can use that to wrestle away pots when he doesn't look strong on the flop, but in order to have fold equity you need the PFR.

2. Flop and turn. I think your bets are good but the best line here IMO would be potting/ over-betting it on the flop and betting 2/3 pot on the turn. This way you make sure you deny them the odds at each opportunity. Calling 2/3 pot on the flop with the flush draw is not a mistake IMO, but a little more than the pot is.

I think diferrently about the turn call. It would make me believe he either has a weak made hand or a draw. If he has you on the turn and he knows it he needs to raise as there are a lot of cards that can either beat him or kill his action on the river.

3. River play. Some of us seem to believe the river bet is weak. Please let me know why and what ammount you think would be a good bet there.

I think more than 2/3 of the pot on the river is a reasonable value bet. I think I would have also made it considering my thoughts on the turn play - if he has a second best hand he may still call my value bet here.

When he raises we know we're dead. I play NL10 and NL20 and I think the rule is that a river raise is not a bluff 90% of the time. He believes he has the best hand and weather it's a flush or a straight we are beat.
You say that your read on him is that he is a cautious post flop player - would he go all in here with AJ? Even if you are right and the turn call is a made hand, what made hand does this that we can beat?

Overall good hand except for the river call.