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#1
11-21-2007, 08:32 AM
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NL400 Middle set , i vomit (deep)
Villian is a solid winning player ; 23 15 AF 2
Stacked me earlier for a million bb's when i obv couldnt fold aces. $2/$4 No Limit Holdem 6 players Converted at weaktight.com Stacks: UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$821.30</font>) UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$800.00</font>) CO (<font color="#0000cc">$521.80</font>) Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$800.00</font>) SB (<font color="#0000cc">$1723.80</font>) BB (<font color="#0000cc">$870.00</font>) Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BTN 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#777777">3 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $14, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font> Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($42, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $32</font>, SB calls $32 Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($106, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $80</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $220</font>, Hero calls $140 River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($546, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1416</font>, <font color="#777777">Hero ????</font> what the [censored] is going on here?? 
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#3
11-21-2007, 08:54 AM
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Re: NL400 Middle set , i vomit (deep)
An overbet on the river means one of two things: he has the nuts, or he has crap. Looking at his action it looks like he's got 89 and is just trying to call down until the flush draw hits on the turn and he wants draws to pay. The draw doesn't come so he value-pushes with the nuts.
But if he's a solid winning player he could be putting this move on to rep. 89 and bluff you off a pot because he thinks your going to be weak because you couldn't fold aces. Meh, it's close to me. Flip a coin. I can't fault folding, and I can't fault calling. Pilket
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#7
11-21-2007, 09:23 AM
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Re: NL400 Middle set , i vomit (deep)
Sorry, forgot my inta's this morning.
Hero has to call $532 to win $1610. Basic math, you need to be ahead here about 30% of the time for a call to be profitable. I'd say its close but I'm starting to lean heavily towards a call. Fortunately for the hero, his play is representing just about every playable hand out there and is pretty much inducing the bluff on the turn by calling.
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#8
11-21-2007, 09:58 AM
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Re: NL400 Middle set , i vomit (deep)
I think that this deep he raises a set on the flop.
The only hand I could see him slowplaying on the flop is 89. Unless he's trying to bluff raise you on the turn, puts you on a club draw and shoves river but I think he has the nuts here a lot of the time. Moreover, the river makes it 4 to a straight and given your play you could have a straight here so I fold.
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#10
11-21-2007, 01:07 PM
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Re: NL400 Middle set , i vomit (deep)
[ QUOTE ]
Hero has to call $532 to win $1610. Basic math, you need to be ahead here about 30% of the time for a call to be profitable. I'd say its close but... [/ QUOTE ] Lol^^ Seriously though im definitely calling here. taking your history into account he is 100% valuing 2pair and 55 here because he knows you cant fold an overpair. and if you stove his range including 55, 77, 56s, 57s, 67s, 89s which I really think that's about all he can have here, you have almost 50% equity which is certainly enough to call. He could also be leveling and semibluffed the turn if he picked up some sort of combo draw with the clubs and is now trying to push you off your hand because he has stacked you with an overpair once. I guess what im saying is that it looks like you have another overpair and don't know what to do, but the fact is your hand is massively underrepped. I think the only str8 is 89 and if he flopped it im paying him off with this history.
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