Did He Touch Home?

[Oski]

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Why didn't the Rocks have a pinch-runner at 3rd in this situtation. The teams were still using the 40-man roster and I am sure they had a guy who runs much faster than Holliday available.

Also: either slide feet first and try to dislodge the ball (if catcher already holding it) or do a Pete Rose while the catcher is trying to field the ball. The headfirst slide is by far the worst of options.

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Taking your best player out of a tied extra inning game would not be a good move.

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Under most circumstances, that would be correct. Here, it probably is not correct. Under the game conditions, it was obvious that the game would come down to a play at the plate, that inning. It was not a matter of if, it was a matter of when. The Rocks knew they were going for the win right there, they should have maxed their chances of getting it.

[MikeyPatriot]

What made it obvious that everything was coming down to a play at the plate?

[Oski]

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What made it obvious that everything was coming down to a play at the plate?

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The runner at third needs to run home and touch the plate to score?

Almost any ball put into play would bring a possible play-at-the-plate scenario. (as wee saw, the Rocks gambled on a shallow fly. Only a pop up or ground ball directly at an infieder means the runner is holding)

[kidcolin]

Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

[Oski]

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Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

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I can't believe that is a serious comment.

A faster runner increases the amount and types of plays you can gamble on at the plate; they can run on shallower flys, infield grounders, maybe a foul ball catch, passed ball and wild pitch. It also brings the squeeze in to play.

[mo42nyy]

Taking out your best player as the tying run on third and 0 outs is an awful move. If you're down by 1 and hes on second then it makes sense.

[Dids]

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Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

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I can't believe that is a serious comment.

A faster runner increases the amount and types of plays you can gamble on at the plate; they can run on shallower flys, infield grounders, maybe a foul ball catch, passed ball and wild pitch. It also brings the squeeze in to play.

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FAIL.

[Oski]

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Taking out your best player as the tying run on third and 0 outs is an awful move. If you're down by 1 and hes on second then it makes sense.

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He was the winning run

[Oski]

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Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

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I can't believe that is a serious comment.

A faster runner increases the amount and types of plays you can gamble on at the plate; they can run on shallower flys, infield grounders, maybe a foul ball catch, passed ball and wild pitch. It also brings the squeeze in to play.

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FAIL.

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How so?

[kidcolin]

Oski,

I mean it's not obvious what the quantifiable number is. Obviously a fast, good base-runner gives you a better chance. I just don't know by how much, and if it offsets the value you lose if he still gets pegged.