PokerStars Prediction

[Sintax]

I posted a prediction last week, that elite chasers were going to overextend themselves (by playing too many tables or moving up prematurely) and the games would get a great short term boost. From the accounts I've witnessed and read, this seems to be true thus far.

Anticipating this, I actually cut back from my normal 6 tables to 3 and concentrated more. As a result, I can proudly boast my highest winrate in over 18 months (2.19 BB/100 at 2-4 and 3-6 for 20k hands).

Now I am completely aware that this is not proof of the aforementioned. I could simply be running good or actually be a better player with less tables, however I am fairly sure theres more to it. I see players that were never on more then two tables playing on 4 now.

What I am worried about now, is the second part of my prediction. That this overextending is going to bust or burnout too many players and the games are going to regress and actually become worse then they were last month. Combine this with the decling trend in new players and pending enforcement of the UIGEA and the not so distant future looks bleak.

I am not a poker room manager, and don't actually know much about making a poker room successful. However, I am well read in the poker literature and I can distincly remember numerous passages about how the poker economy works. One in particular from a guy who said if he could have his way, he wouldn't run a game higher that 2/4, that way the house would get the most money in the long run.

I also remeber Stars having a similar policy not to long ago. There was a public outcry to open more tables of 30/60 when they were full, and to add higher limits. For the longest time Stars held out. Obviously, now theres both.

So the current design of the VIP program favors and encourages higher limit play. This would generate the most income in the short term, but take a lot of money out of circulation for the poker room in the long run. Now I imagine with the millions of dollars they rake in daily Stars has plenty of experts in the field on the clock. So by this design, one might conjecture that Stars finds making the most money in the short term is the best financial strategy for the company in the long run.

Some possibilites:

1) The US legislative enviorment is very unfavorable, and Stars realizes the possibilty of either forceably or voluntarity losing its US player base. Even if this is just becuase US casinos can legally open up US poker rooms online etc...

2)They realize that the artificial intelligence (bots) are getting progressivly better and more difficult to detect. There might be an implosion of players once word gets out to the mainstream that online is a "losing" game. If Stars wanted to progressively deter this, they would develop and simplified version of PT as part of their client and outlaw any program that runs in conjunction with their software. But thats another story. And I could go off on a rant as to why the popular "Poker is a game of incomplete information therefore humans will be better then computers" statement is one of the biggest fallacy's in the poker universe.

3) Stars has a wealth of "new player" and "deposit" statistics and has identified a trend that the "poker boom" is significantly declining, and they are making a push for more action.

Anyway, these are just some ideas to think about, evolve or refute. Time will tell.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
They realize that the artificial intelligence (bots) are getting progressivly better and more difficult to detect.

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When I worked at Stars, the bot detection team was very, very good at catching offenders.

[Scottyy]

4) Stars surveyed their Supernovas in August and the consistent message was "give us higher goals"

[Lucid1]

I agree on one thing:

The games are going to get tougher.

Not because of the supernova elite promotions, but because the games have consistently and gradually become tougher in the last 3 years I've been a semipro (playing on other sites than Stars, btw), and I don't see why this tendency won't continue.

[ QUOTE ]

What I am worried about now, is the second part of my prediction. That this overextending is going to bust or burnout too many players and the games are going to regress and actually become worse then they were last month.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this line of thought. I think most players going for the supernova elite status are way above average players.

I seriuosly doubt the games gets _easier_ because donks like myself fill up 12 tables. You may find me predictable, but I'm a winner in the game, not a donator, so it's probably better to have a pokernoob in my spot for the potential profitability on that table...

If people like me burn out on their way to sn elite status, that means the games gets easier, not harder [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

imho.

btw I'm not saying I'm a very good player, I'm saying I'm above average...

[TimWillTell]

I like you first prediction.
Your second prediction on the other hand, seems highly unlikely to me.

Competition will get tougher, on that I agree, but I think online poker will become even more popular than it is now.

In the years to come there will be a shift from reality to virtual reality. People will even start to live virtual lives on the Internet... it's going to be so big!

Online poker will ride along on that train!

TimWillTell

[Sintax]

[ QUOTE ]
4) Stars surveyed their Supernovas in August and the consistent message was "give us higher goals"

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt.

Your Supernovas have also consistently called for a better "VIP Tourney" system, or none at all, with bonus $ instead etc. Instead, the "new and improved" system is even worse.

I do have a legitimate complaint about it. I will make Nova by April, and will have 7 or 8 months of ($100 value each as it stands now) freerolls, that I can not possibly partake in due to a work conflict.

"So if you don't like it, play somewhere else". Is that the message Stars wants to send to its Novas? I don't think Scotty has or ever will say it, but its the standard response on these boards.

The fact is, Stars should value me as a player. I am not a pro, but a high volume recreational player. I don't always win, and I've donated money to the higher limits, gone busto and had to start over. Because of my work schedule (weekend/nights) I fill the Stars games during the slowest hours (weekday nights, from about 10pm to 5 am many nights). If I remember correctly, even Party Poker with their pathetic VIP system gave "bonus" points during that dreadful time. I don't think anything like that is called for at Stars. I just think the way the VIP tourneys are offered is ridiculous. You have players from all time zones all over the globe. You also have limit players, omaha players etc who don't play No-Limit or tourneys.

I've always like and respected Stars, I've been with you guys since 2002. I learned how to play SNG's there years ago, and would be happier then a pig in $hit to get $T100 to use on SNG's each week I can play on my own time then a useless freeroll. Stars runs hundreds of big money tourneys each week, why the crap do they need one specifially for "VIPS"?

The only legitimate problem I have with Stars is their new deceptive marketing tactics. Its low rent. Calling a tournament that requries X amount of FPP's a "FREEROLL" is in its simplelest description, false advertising. Theres already a name for these events: FPP Satellites.

To tag them with "FREEROLL" is shady. Either make them "FREE" or change the name (just a pet-peeve of mine becsuase I have no intention of playing in the $hitty event regardless of what its called).

On the same note, awarding a "Bonus" for reaching "X" level but costs "X" FPP, is not a "BONUS", it is just a new item in the store for those players. Again, just call it what it really is. Furthermore, requiring players to "playthrough" those "bonuses" after "buying" them is just insulting. Its not like your Platinum Stars or Supernovas are going to "hit and run" these bonuses. Anyway, it's an incidental and trival matter since the players cashing these "rewards" earn tens of thousands of VPPS a month and aren't going anywhere. Offering a $2000 bonus that costs $700 to buy is NOT a "$2000 bonus". Just cut the [censored] and offer a $1300 bonus and be done with it. It seems like Stars is intentionally trying to pull the wool over the eyes of thier so called VIPS. Theres no other reason to charge $700 for a $2000 "bonus".

I totally understand the requirements for a "deposit bonus", thats a whole different beast.

[Jerry D]

The US legislation envrionment is looking much better now that the right wing religious repbulicans have been sent running to the hills. Good things will happen soon that will make the original poker boom look like a whimper. Good times are coming...

[Sintax]

[ QUOTE ]
If people like me burn out on their way to sn elite status, that means the games gets easier, not harder [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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The problem is all the fish you leave in your wake on the way to burning out. Having the winning players out in double force, the "recreational players" get swallowed that much quicker. And I was thinking that as some of the 12 tablers get "burned out" theres that many less tables, so players move down a limit or so to fill their open tables making those games tougher.

Take this for what its worth. I had six 1/2 limit tables open this morning and I should have snapped a screenshot for proof. There was not a single player on any of the six tables who was not either an eagle, flag or danger icon (POKEROFFICE). Thats 60 seats (a lot of multiablers) and not a fish in the bunch. I'ts freaking $1/$2 Limit holdem, it's supposed to be a total noob fest. I could go down to the indian casino and the people playing 1/2 still ask the dealer if a straight beats a flush.

But, I actually believe that there are true "professionals" in the 1/2 Stars limit game. I'm guessing well read seniors adding 20-40k a year to their social security and pensions and bright college students making a couple hundred a week beer and spending money. People who are truly happy with a modest winrate and profitable hobby, with not guts or need to go for higher limits or games.

[iggymcfly]

I don't see what the quality of the 1/2 games has to do with the Nova Elite package. Unless you've got a crazy bot or something, it's impossible to make that many VPPs playing those limits. Maybe your problem was just that it's Monday morning and the fish are either sleeping or going off to work.

[intensity]

wow people do find something to complain in everything.