KJs in the BB

[Dhani]

check call both turn and river, unless a heart comes up on the river, then fold. My reasoning for this is the fact that you are caught in between players who are showing strength, one being a PF raiser who may have you beat/redaw at the nut flush, and SB who may be feigning strength on the flop wit a FD.

[Dhani]

I missed this one. I can see where you need to bet the turn. You can't worry about the Flush. Thanks

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Really interesting hand Bob.

I decided to plugin a range for MP and see where we stand. Of course, there's a bit of art to putting him on a range, but no matter how you slice it, I figure you to be about a 3:1 favorite to have him beaten or tied.

mp range breakdown

Note that of the hands you beat, MP will probably only bet about 25% of the time (aces). Given that, you should bet your hand, even if you intend to call a raise.

Should you call a raise? I think so. Too much risk of being raised by AA with a heart, QQ with a heart, AJ with Ah, etc. I wouldn't 3-bet MP though, because his range does include a big chunk of hands that beat you, so his raise is very believable here.

So I'd say bet / call and call a non-heart, non-ace river. Fold if you bet and it's 2 cold back to you. If you are just called on the turn, bet any non-heart non-ace river. If river is an ace or heart, you should definitely check since you are now way behind his range, and then probably fold, because is he really going to bluff QQ no heart? I doubt it. Exploitable fold for sure, but I think it's best against most players, who will be content to just check behind and hope their Qs hold up.

good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Eric,

I tried to tweak the ranges a bit and your site tells me to login, what's up with that?

Looks like a good tool, how do I use it?

Thanks,
Joe

[One Outer]

You have to purchase a membership.

[BriPlay]

ok, here are my thoughts.
btw thanks for not posting results
1. TAG only PF raise that has hearts is AhQh. I'd put him on typical TAG AK AQ AJs AA-JJ TT 99 maybe KJS KQs QJs. since he reraised flop can't be TT 99 AK AQ(unless the nuts), so its AA-JJ AJ maybe KJ. you look good vs this combo
2. SB could have bet flush draw, or str8draw, or A8 T8 etc.
He could be chekraising a made flush but you cant give a free card imho.
I'd bet out here on turn i think you are probably good, and cant let 4 flush draw for free. If MP raises and SB makes it 3 I'm gone. If SB chk raises i call and call river
If MP raises and SB folds or calls I would really consider folding except that the pot is so big

brian

[Bob T.]

Actually, I did post the results, but the rest of the hand was kind of anticlimatic.

My thought process was along your lines, I thought that my hand was good enough for two bets on the turn, so I would bet and call one raise, but I didn't want to checkraise, and then face three bets. So I bet out, and thne both players folded. That really surprised me.

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]

if i wasn't worried about the turn checking through too often(in relation to the pot size on this board) i would try to c/r both of them. as is, i'm leading the turn hoping he raises with his AA/AK so i can 3bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

how does MP have AK here? He has JJ, or AA, or a flush when he get raised on the turn, quick means 3 betting would be a mistake imo.

[SNOWBALL]

we should CR the turn, because MP isn't going to check behind too much. Specifically, he should check behind pretty much only black QQ or AJ with no heart, and even then he should bet/fold them.

The most likely two outcomes of leading are: getting HU against a better hand, or one bet 3 ways (in which case we miss value)

Also, when it is bet and then raised to the SB, there is little guarantee that he will fold anything we want him to fold.

CR plz.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
we should CR the turn, because MP isn't going to check behind too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that checkraising might have been better. I probably win one more bet, and I think the danger of a flush is from the SB, and not MP. If I check, and it goes bet/raise, then I probably have to throw my hand away. If it goes bet/call or fold, and then I raise, I get a lot more value out of a hand when I am most likely ahead.

[James.]

7.5bb is a pot that you want to win now. screwing around and checkraising the turn has a higher risk/reward ratio. worst case scenario with a bet: it wins a big pot UI. best case scenario with a c/r: you parlay that it happens to gain a bet on the turn at the cost of losing the pot more often. your c/r has to work perfectly alot of the time for it to be correct. when a pot reaches a certain size, the board is a certain texture, and your holding in relation to your opponents' ranges is of a certain static strength alot of the time winning the pot outright will outweigh the benefits of gaining an extra bet once in 4 or 5 times.