Ok sir, that is an overbet

mbman · #1 09-22-2007, 10:05 AM

I have been playing tight at this table, so has the table in general. No big pots or anything. Villain is loose according to stats though, 33/5/0.6 over maybe 50 hands.

My instinct is to fold here, since he seems rather passive and that is a huge overbet. Smells set or twopair, since these guys like to c/c with draw. But still, is is impossible that he goes crazy with AJ or something?

Who calls and who folds here?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $28.10
BB: $62.40
UTG: $46.80
CO: $56.30
Hero (BTN): $59.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.00, CO raises all-in to $54.05, Hero....

castigar · #2 09-22-2007, 10:08 AM

I'd fold. I'd rather lose 5$ now than gamble a little for 55.

If I lose 55, I have to make up for it. I don't have to make up for 5.

paddytokey · #3 09-22-2007, 10:10 AM

dunno but with his stats i can probably fold since he probably has a set...i just don't see why he is going all in right away,instead of just raising you...

clowntable · #4 09-22-2007, 10:24 AM

0.6 AF, limp/call huge overbet...
Thoughts on his range
66, maybe 99, JJ unlikely (AA/QQ very unlikely and cancel each other out)
7d8d is possible (people often go on the "just push OESFD" frenzy)
J9/T8 are unlikely unless you've seen him limp/call one gappers
96 is highly unlikely
I'd assume he'd raise AJ PF (put he only has a 5 PFR% so who knows) could be AdJd

So, to sum it up likely: 66, 8d7d (put your read says otherwise)
Should have raised but who knows: 99/JJ/AJ (including AdJd)
Possible: J9, Td8d

I'd fold it, mainly because we only have 50 hands to base our reads on. 6.3:5 odds aren't good enough

scallop · #5 09-22-2007, 10:27 AM

Fold. I think his range is pretty narrow: 2p, sets, Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

choccypie · #6 09-22-2007, 10:28 AM

Tough spot. If he had JJ/99/66 I think he'd try to slowplay and get more money out of you with a set. He's quite passive and doesn't raise much pf by looks of things, so I think this smells of two pair or a FD. J9 could well be in his range; against a short stack I'd call all day long, but vs him I'd fold, as if he has an ace high diamond draw you're not that big a favourite to risk your entire stack.

Fold, make note and wait for a better spot.

clowntable · #7 09-22-2007, 10:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. I think his range is pretty narrow: 2p, sets, Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah yeah QdTd is def in the range, too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lostit · #8 09-22-2007, 10:41 AM

I wouldn't call his postflop play loose with a 0.6 aggression. Generally I would steer clear of anyone coming hard at me postflop with an agression factor that low. The only decent hand you're beating is TPTK, and do you really think someone with an AF of 0.6 is overbetting that badly with TPTK? I personally have NEVER seen that happen. There are plenty of other opportunities to get your money in at these levels, be patient.

Also clowntable is right about his range. Either he's already ahead of you (and you have 2 outs left in the deck), or you've got 2 very scary streets that you probably won't survive.

Antinome · #9 09-22-2007, 11:06 AM

I call with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]... this I fold. It's that close.

you need ~44% equity to call. if he can do this with 78o or QTo you have to call regardless. Even if he won't, you have ~38% equity without the Kd, and 40% with it. I think he will do it with the OESD sometimes, so with the Kd I call.

Fingerswinger · #10 09-22-2007, 11:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call his postflop play loose with a 0.6 aggression. Generally I would steer clear of anyone coming hard at me postflop with an agression factor that low. The only decent hand you're beating is TPTK, and do you really think someone with an AF of 0.6 is overbetting that badly with TPTK? I personally have NEVER seen that happen. There are plenty of other opportunities to get your money in at these levels, be patient.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

such a passive guy will never shove draws and very likely wont overplay TPTK. he might have QQ, but that's about all you beat.