Quick ? about pot odds percentage and bets

[kassdog]

This question is going to be quick and basic. Alright so lets say that on the flop you have 10 outs. If my understanding of the rule of 4 and 2 you have roughly 40% chance of you hitting your hand. Now do you need someone to bet more or less than 40% of the pot for it to be profitable to call your hand.

[RyverRat]

ill make it simple....

you have 40% chance if you see both cards.

you have approx 20% chance to see the next card. There may be a bet on the turn so you should take the flop bet and the turn bet seperately unless the guy is all in on the flop then the math is a lot simpler.

FLOP BET - odds to hit on turn card.
example $10 pot villain bets $2. pot = $12 you have to call $2 6/1 odds you will hit your hand 4/1 (1 in 5 same as 20%)


This is not taking into account implied odds, stack sizes etc. just a quick response.

[RyverRat]

sorry Kassdog are you assuming villains bet is all in on the flop ?

[basementproject]

The flop has come. You have 10 outs that give you the situational nuts.

47 unseen cards left.

10/47 = 0.21

1/4.7 = 3.7:1

This is to hit your card on the turn. You need to be getting better than 3.7:1 to call to your draw, aka any odds greater than 3.7:1. For instance, if the pot was giving you 4:1, you would call. If the pot was giving you 2:1, you would fold.

10/47 + 10/46 = 0.21 + 0.22 = 0.43

This is your % to hit by the river. Keep this in mind when deciding whether or not to call the flop bet.

[RyverRat]

That read a lot better than mine [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

10/47 + 10/46 = 0.21 + 0.22 = 0.43


[/ QUOTE ]
That is not the correct calculation. The probability that you hit is the probability that you hit on the first cards plus the probability that you miss on the first card and hit on the second card.

10/47 + 37/47 * 10/46 ~ 38.4%

A good correction to the rule of 4 is to subtract the number of outs over 8, 4 10 - (10-8) = 38.

Note that the probability of hitting a particular draw is generally not your probability of winning. For example, 9-out flush draws often win about 38% of the time, since they also have runner-runner 2-pair and trips draws, as well as backdoor straight draws. A flush draw only wins about 25% against a set, though, since it is possible to hit the flush and lose to a full house. It is also possible for your draw to be ahead.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
2 you have roughly 40% chance of you hitting your hand. Now do you need someone to bet more or less than 40% of the pot for it to be profitable to call your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, if you are calling all-in with a 40% probability to win, you want the amount you put in to be less than 40% of the total = original + bet + call.

If the pot starts at $1, you can call bets up to $2, at which point your $2 would be 40% of the $1+$2+$2=$5 total.

You can call any amount all-in if you win 50% or more.

[basementproject]

oopsies! Again pzhon saves the day.