Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[Post-Oak]

You can bet on Miami to NOT go 0-16 on 5Dimes at -700. I think this prop is massively EV.

Here's Miami's schedule. The lines for the first 3 games are already available. For all of the other lines, I have put my estimated lines in paranthesis. I have shaded the estimated lines against Miami in order to be conservative in my estimates. I actually think they should fare much better against NYJ (they should be favored), Bal (still over rated by the linesmakers) and Cin, but I want to err on the side of caution.

Buf +3
at Phi +9
at Pit +17
NYJ (0)
at Buf (+9)
Bal (+3)
at NE (+24)
Cin (+4)

Now let's put a conservative chance of winning to go along with those spreads.

Buf +3 42% (58% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 19% (81%)
at Pit +17 6% (94%)
NYJ (0) 50% (50%)
at Buf (+9) 19% (81%)
Bal (+3) 42% (58%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+4) 34% (66%)

This would give them only a 6.7% chance of losing every game.

Let's use more conservative numbers:

Buf +3 40% (60% chance to lose)
at Phi +9 17% (83%)
at Pit +17 5% (95%)
NYJ (+3) 40% (60%)
at Buf (+9) 17% (83%)
Bal (+3) 38% (62%)
at NE (+24) 2% (98%)
Cin (+6) 30% (70%)

Now we come up with 10.0% (90% to win the bet). At -700, we need to win 87.5% of the time. I think this bet will be a winner greater than 90% of the time (more like 94-96% IMO). -700 looks like a great price. The max bet is $1750 to win $250.

I also want to reiterate that I actually think they have a good chance of beating NYJ, Bal or Cin at home. They could be favored by as much as 3 over the Jets, and could easily be pick 'em against Bal or Cin. The estimates I gave are more in line with what I would expect from the linesmakers, and are also meant to be conservative.