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#2
10-29-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think villain is 2barreling that turn card? [/ QUOTE ] a lot 
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#4
10-29-2007, 02:51 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
are you serious tannen?
i dont like this at all and i would felt TT + against u and maybe any pair you are right, you are repping a narrow range...but you are also wrong, there is no way its wider than his range for continuing
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#6
10-29-2007, 02:58 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
don't know what to say other than that i'm sure op has you beat the majority of the time he takes this line. op is only repping a few hands, but all of them are near-nut holdings. if this is the first time op has made a play like this on the villain, it should be hard for the villain to continue with almost all of the hands in his range.
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#7
10-29-2007, 03:00 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
[ QUOTE ]
don't know what to say other than that i'm sure op has you beat the majority of the time he takes this line. op is only repping a few hands, but all of them are near-nut holdings. if this is the first time op has made a play like this on the villain, it should be hard for the villain to continue with almost all of the hands in his range. [/ QUOTE ] disagree...bc his range is so narrow i think he is floating more often than he has a hand that is consistent with this range...keep in mind he cant even rep a good A
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#8
10-29-2007, 03:03 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
i know. op's line only reps trips or a boat. but i don't see why, as the villain, you'd put op on an elaborate float/bluff without a read that makes such a play likely. op noted that his image is "solid."
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#9
10-31-2007, 08:15 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
dont like the flop call ... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
and the ace fits perfect intos SB raise range. and the ace seems to not scare SB, he fires the second barrel... and you have no outs if he calls for the river ... but maybe you have some fold equity, depending on your opponent, hard to say on the green table...
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#10
10-31-2007, 10:41 PM
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Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
How about viewing this as an algebra problem. Let x be the % of time you have trips or a boat in this spot, and let y be the % of time you fire a second bullet as a bluff on the river.
If he decides to call you down all the way, his EV is: x(-550) + y(675) + (1-x-y)(275) If he decides to call on the turn and fold to a bet on the river, his EV is: (x+y)(-150) + (1-x-y)(275) You need to find an x and y such that both of these come out negative. I whipped those formulas up really quickly and the details may be off, but you get the idea. I guess you have to account for the possibility of him using a mixed strategy too, but this is too much math for me right now.
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