Push or Call on Flop - 3 Way Pot

[garcia1000]

Those are good points Roundtower, obv if you don't expect a check-raise you have direct odds to call the flop bet. I think second time around it's a clear call. Could you explain why you'd want to push? It looks to me that pushing is unwise against MP2's range (2P, set, OESD, wrap).

I would neve call a raise with that hand preflop in position, although I have seen good players call with worse

[Elrazor]

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It looks to me that pushing is unwise against MP2's range (2P, set, OESD, wrap

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without doing the numbers you are probably a slight dog with a wrap, 70/30 v OESD, 30/70 v set and a slight fav v 2 pair.

i really dont expect to see a set as part of his range tho so, as the shove on the flop gave him a chance to shove himself and with plenty of dead money in the middle already i think pushing is better than calling, although you really cant fault a call here

[RoundTower]

as Elrazor says you should be able to heavily discount sets because they would have pushed, if he has a made hand it is likely a weak one like 2 pair, and that might even fold to a push. (You should be a small dog to 2 pair here btw). Also it's hard for him to have an overpair, though something like QQ45 isn't out of the question.

Shoving 99 for value might be a bit thin though, because if he has any pair or any overcard that gives him extra outs.

[JanelleBB7]

Disgaree with folding preflop. As stated, I have position and there are so many callers that the pot is too sweet not to enter. I pretty much ALWAYS call in late position with this many callers.

Disagree with NOT calling. I didn't think anyone would actually say fold lol. But i see you said this because of the raise (which I did not know was going to occur).

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as Elrazor says you should be able to heavily discount sets because they would have pushed

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Exactly what I was thinking anyone with a set would most likely have pushed.

The reason why I was asking about pushing on the turn is because this might squeeze out the middle player who has a lot of chips and appears to just be speculating at this point.

Even if he should call I figure I have outs and the pot odds to make it worth it.

Here is where I think Fold equity takes place... anyone see that potential here?

By getting the middle player to fold, I can get better equity for my draw because now instead of having maybe a 33% chance of winning I figure it will be a lot closer to 50% chance with only a 33% investment. LOL Yeah my math is fuzzy estimate math here not actually calculated. Maybe one of you math whizzes can test my theory here.

[Rob121]

im my opinion your to deep to be shoving this flop with such a marginal hand. mp2 could be playing a bottom or mid set slow seeing that your 160 bb deep. whok knows what else he calls with seeing you have no reads. i dont see why you want to isolate utg +1 here. his range has you crushed. might as well keep mp2 in now that you priced yourself in.

i fold this all day preflop, i can't see how this hand is +ev by calling. your not closing the action and seeing a flop with a pair of nines and rags 6 ways just seems way to thin. i might open this hand at a tight table in late position but cold calling just seems awful.

[JanelleBB7]

To settle the preflop debate:

Omaha Hi Simulation
210,025 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
**** 19.87% 39,883 3,784
**** 19.89% 39,924 3,806
**** 20.01% 40,155 3,822
**** 19.83% 39,827 3,730
9h9c4d7h 20.40% 41,607 2,546

Omaha Hi Simulation
201,472 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AA** 30.32% 60,192 1,812
**** 17.03% 32,826 3,014
**** 16.91% 32,584 3,048
**** 17.07% 32,881 3,095
9h9c4d7h 18.67% 36,429 2,424


No reason not to call preflop. I consider that a matter of choice. If you are a tight player who never speculates, then you can fold, but I think there is nothing wrong with calling preflop here.


I don't think MP2 has a set though... I don't put him on a set here... why do you?

[Rob121]

forget it im to lazy.