*** OFFICIAL 10/07/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (CHI @ GB) ***

[Performify]

Chicago at Green Bay -- Sunday night, 8:15pm EST

[NajdorfDefense]

I'll take GB -120/-3 here for 1u. The Bears are in disarray, they don't have a good QB, they are injured, and the GB defense has been stellar throughout [all this is well known, of course]. The Bears 'need' a win more, but GB's talent should be able to garner a FG victory.
Given that the line is -3.5 at 3 major sites already, I'll jump on here. I think only the large # of Chi fans have kept it at 3 this long.

Take away Hester's 2 return TDs, and their scoring looks even worse. I took KC and DET vs Chi last 2 weeks, see no reason to stop at this price. Like Philly, they are overrated, unlike PHL at least they are getting 3.

[21SuicideKing21]

I agree with all of NajadorofDefense's arguments, and you also have to like the fact that its SNF in Lambeau Field and its just going to be "Brett Favre" night. So I really like 2u for the Packers in this one, granted it seems alittle weird that the Packers are only favored 3 @ home against the struggling NFC Champs.

[kaboshedx]

Naj I like your analysis and I like your pick - however as soon as I saw this game I just immediately thought of public perception.

Chi town is down, really down, and after 4 weeks of [censored] shouldn't the public see this? And playing a 4-0 romantic Pacers team I feel like this game almost has BSP written all over it...Bears moved the ball last week and are getting 4 defensive starters back if I am not mistaken. If Griese can keep the ball away _granted, big if) from the other team I can see the game staying within a field goal. Right now I'm leaning towards Chi +3.5

[theclock]

Good analysis Naj,

Couldn't agree more. GB -3 at Lambeau seems like a bargain. Griese, Grossman, is there really that big a difference? Griese had many opportunities to shine in his career. He hasn't pulled through at all. Why start now?

Normally I follow bankroll management rules but opportunities like this don't come around too often. I'll have a decent chunk of the roll on GB. Putting all the eggs in one basket is not smart, back to the grind if they lose. :-(

[psuasskicker]

The odds are saying Chi is on even footing with GB on a neutral field, and I just don't see that. I'm on GB -3.5 and considering another unit GB -3 as well.

Eventually teams will stop kicking to Hester, right? I mean, they have to, right? Tell me it's not better to give that crappy-a$$ offense the ball at the 40 every time rather than kick it to Hester...

- C -

[zOrO2k6]

evrybody thinks Packers is the right bet.
Packers must win by 13 or something like that, smells like BSP to me.

[NajdorfDefense]

Kabosh, I agree that I would not lay 3.5 here v the Bears. If the Bears are 100% healthy this week, I like my bet a lot less, however:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=090...p;confirm=true
Dvoracek and Brown are out for the year with ACL tears, 2 backups are out for the year, and Vasher is listed as Doubtful. They are clearly missing solid Def starters.

Harris, Briggs, AA all questionable.

[kyro]

Everybody seems to be on the Packers except those saying "BSP?"

Somebody explain to me why the line is where it is. I don't want to hear who the better pick is or anything like that, I just want to know why the books seem to agree on 3-3.5.

[New001]

I'm afraid I disagree with those taking GB, though if you have -3 -110 from earlier in the week I don't think it's terrible. My only position on the game is Chicago +3.5 -110.