Raise to protect AK on ragged flop? cruching the numbers...

[maverickai]

I'm doing some EV calculations, to see if raising on a ragged flop with AK is worth it to protect my big overs, compared with just calling.

3 players:
UTG is lagg, and will always c-bet. His range on stove is 66+,A6s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
MP is HERO
CO's range on stove similar to UTG.

I will formulate my EV calculations as calling to showdown to simplify things.

I hold AKs in MP, and the preflop is capped, 3 multiway.
Preflop Pot size: 6BB

Flop comes ragged: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG leads, so the question is should we raise or call? Which has better EV?

The equity for 3 players going to show down, and 2 players going to showdown are as follows:

HERO 57%
UTG 43%

HERO 36%
UTG 32%
CO 32%

1st scenario, I raise to protect, and CO folds. Thus my equity increased from 36% to 57%.
EV = ((0.57*(6+1+1+1))+(0.42*(-1-1-1))) = 3.87BB

2nd scenario, I raise to protect, but CO and UTG calls. Equity remains the same as 36%
EV =((0.36*(6+2+2+2))+(0.64*(-1-1-1)))= 2.40BB

3rd scenario , I just call, and CO calls along.
EV = ((0.36*(6+1+2+2))+(0.64*(-0.5-1-1)))= 2.36BB

Ok, EV jumped from 2.40 to 3.87 if I protect my hand successfully, but remains about the same of ~2.40 if I had raised and CO called. raising is definitely the correct move...basically raising to 'buy' equity is very vital, cos the equity would increase by 21%, and 21/36 is a 58% increase!

Hope you guys dun mind me doing math here. Just need to work these out to convince the quantitative part of the theory of protecting overcards.

[neurotiq]

[ QUOTE ]

Hope you guys dun mind me doing math here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly object to your use of math. Why would you do such a thing when determining expected value?

Just kidding. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually, I'm kind of wondering about the preflop action. Who raised? Who 3bet? Who capped? Was LAGgy UTG calling the whole way? Or was she or he raising? Is LAG's range really that wide after capping preflop?

It could well be (I have no idea what your read is), but I'm just curious....

[maverickai]

I've been playing a few bots on UB nano limits, and they LURVE to cap preflop even with holdings like JTs, w 2-3 callers calling along for the ride. That's why the pot gets bloated up before seeing the flop.

So just to confirm the theory that one gotta play aggressively and protect his hand if the pot's big by numerical analysis.

Hope it's helpful... it is to me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

This is fine if you assume a) you're not going to raise anywhere if you improve, and b) you're going to call a river bet even if you don't improve.

Edit: pretty much the same complaint I had in your last "how to calculate EV" thread.

[Brain]

And what if somebody 3bets the flop?

[maverickai]

[ QUOTE ]
And what if somebody 3bets the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm... that would be another line of calculations. Not going to do it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] But the above exercise is just to let me get an idea how much more EV I can get, by protecting my hand, and increasing the pot equity.

If someone 3bets, and given such a loose table at the nanos, I would call to see the turn, and raise if I hit. But might fold the turn if I dun.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And what if somebody 3bets the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm... that would be another line of calculations. Not going to do it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see that these questions are important? Just like in the last thread. And that by not thinking about them, your EV calculations are, for all intents and purposes, useless?

[ QUOTE ]
But the above exercise is just to let me get an idea how much more EV I can get, by protecting my hand, and increasing the pot equity.

If someone 3bets, and given such a loose table at the nanos, I would call to see the turn, and raise if I hit. But might fold the turn if I dun.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time, the entire exercise was to make sure that you were performing the calcs correctly, mechanically, iirc. Now you're actually trying to use them FOR something, which I applaud, but you still appear to be focusing on HOW to do them and not what information you need to be considering to get an actual useful answer.

Also, not for nothing, if you've got 36% equity on the flop and two opponents why do you want to fold anybody? What do you think you're protecting your hand from?

[LukeSLTS]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, not for nothing, if you've got 36% equity on the flop and two opponents why do you want to fold anybody? What do you think you're protecting your hand from?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a hand with 6 outs like QJ would be the type of hand we are hoping to fold out. You are also going to get small pocket pairs to fold sometimes.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, not for nothing, if you've got 36% equity on the flop and two opponents why do you want to fold anybody? What do you think you're protecting your hand from?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a hand with 6 outs like QJ would be the type of hand we are hoping to fold out. You are also going to get small pocket pairs to fold sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If QJ is willing to play in a pf-capped, 3-way pot, do you think it's going to fold an all-undercard flop getting 6.5:1?

[LukeSLTS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, not for nothing, if you've got 36% equity on the flop and two opponents why do you want to fold anybody? What do you think you're protecting your hand from?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a hand with 6 outs like QJ would be the type of hand we are hoping to fold out. You are also going to get small pocket pairs to fold sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If QJ is willing to play in a pf-capped, 3-way pot, do you think it's going to fold an all-undercard flop getting 6.5:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you will get a QJ, QT, and other broadway cards with no backdoor flush potential or gutshot to fold often enough to make it worthwhile.