final 2 tables stars nightly 100k huge decision: call or fold?

giverofbadbeats · #1 03-10-2007, 05:27 PM

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t2000/t4000
(Ante: t200)
9 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: t96085
UTG+1: t58522
MP1: t78459
Hero: t94000
MP3: t101063
CO: t80535
Button: t68714
SB: t98767
BB: t64455

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 9d 9h
3 folds, Hero raises to t12000, 2 folds, Button raises all-in t68514, 2 folds, Hero?

fold or call? to spare you the suspense, i did end up calling for the following reasons:

1. i feel that i'm good against his range here. he could be doing this with ak-aj, possibly even weaker ace, or a lower pair. of course, he could also be doing it with aa-1010, where i'm dominated.

2. although i'll be cripped if i call and lose, i won't be out of the tournament. furthermore, if i win, i can coast into the final table.

this i a huge decision, as losing 18-10 only pays $900 and 9th pays double that, with each spot paying about an additional $1100 until you reach 3rd which pays 10k. what would you guys do here and why? is 99 a marginal call? i realize that if i'm not commited to the hand, and if i fold to his raise i'm still in decent shape. let me know what you guys think and why. thanks.

quick edit: we have just broken from 3 tables, and this guy wasn't at my last table. i don't have any reads at to whether he is loose or tight.

jrforman · #2 03-10-2007, 05:42 PM

Given you have no read and the tables just condensed to full ring, I would lean towards a fold here. Villain still has 15BB and I doubt villain is making a move here with a lower PP, so at best case scenario you are looking at a coin flip. Since you have no read, I would err on the side of caution, fold and move on.

WuTank · #3 03-10-2007, 05:58 PM

punish me for stupidty but are you allready ITM?
You are getting ~1:1,5.99 against 88+,AQo+,AQs+ is 41,3%,its really close.I think its about the following 2 parameters:How good are you relative to the field and the increasing in the payout structure.
Payout structure is favoring the top places, so i think even if you are slightly better than the rest I would tend to call here and take my chance @ top.

ZBTHorton · #4 03-10-2007, 06:45 PM

Insta-Call.

WarDekar · #5 03-10-2007, 07:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Insta-Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

He can easily be squeezing you with a TON of holdings here trying to pick up chips. Given that you both have no idea how eachother has been playing, his push is going to get you to fold most of your opening hands here (presumably).

Call.

giverofbadbeats · #6 03-11-2007, 01:51 PM

thanks for the input guys. the guy ended up having kk, but thats beside the point. if i had qq and i called i wouldn't have even dwelled on it, thats just poker.