Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[David Sklansky]

I think I have, but it depends on some parameters. So before I reveal it I want to ask some preliminary questions. Please don't answer it before thinking about it a little because I won't let you wiggle out if you try to claim my conclusions are wrong when I base it on your own numbers.

1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?

2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)

3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?

I realize that the answers depend on a lot of unstated things but you can still give me a ballpark average, which should be good enough.

EXTRA CREDIT

Tell me what I am driving at.