line check with gut shot turned 2nd pair on river

[hamnegger]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t5980)
MP2 (t7655)
MP3 (t5710)
CO (t2100)
Button (t3230)
SB (t6235)
Hero (t10915)
UTG (t2585)
UTG+1 (t3835)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t200, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t500) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t200</font>, Hero calls t200.

Turn: (t900) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t200</font>, Hero calls t200.

River: (t1300) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>,

[JARID]

ham,

Flop: check/fold or lead

As played;

Turn: c/f

River: I like c/c better because flush draws can keep betting.

Honestly, I believe you're leaking chips here. He is obv kinda weak w/ a J or flush draw. Problem is you have K high so if you're going to play you should really try to blow him off his hand at some point.

Jarid

[supair]

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Problem is you have K high so if you're going to play you should really try to blow him off his hand at some point.

Jarid

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I think that was probably his plan jarid, I make a lot of chips like this, calling these weak donk bets down to the river with some kind of draw that i know i dont really need to hit most of the time, and i assume ham had some kind of plan to make a psb on the end and take him off the hand. Obviously sometimes he doesnt have the 66-1010, and has Ax suited, which calls everytime in these low stakes d-ments, but really not enough of the time to make these calls unprofitable. Obviously when he pairs the king on the end he tries to take him to value town. I assume this was your thinking ham?

[hamnegger]

ok. 1.if he does have an ace im going to score a decent pot if i 4 out it.

2.he may not have the ace. i may have 10 outs and bluff possibilities. on the turn i knew he was weak. i really should have raised but i wimped out.

3. the river is sheer value bet.i figured he would not call much and also he can't really raise without a straight

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
ok. 1.if he does have an ace im going to score a decent pot if i 4 out it.

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You're odds of hitting your gutshot are about 5.5 to 1 if played til river. You're calling 200, pot=500, so you're getting 2.5 to 1 from the pot. In order for this call to be EV+, u have to win at least another 600 to break-even. This might be hard to do if villain doesn't have an ace, or a 3rd diamond comes on the turn or river. The fact that the flop has 2 diamonds means that the Qd might not be good, and even if it is, it will kill the action when it hits. This decreases your already shaky implied odds.


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2.he may not have the ace. i may have 10 outs and bluff possibilities. on the turn i knew he was weak. i really should have raised but i wimped out.

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Since he lead so weak on the turn, his likely holdings are now a FD or 2nd pair. You can be pretty sure that your outs are not all clean.


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3. the river is sheer value bet.i figured he would not call much and also he can't really raise without a straight

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What hands can he call u with that u beat? The only benefit to leading here is it may look like a busted draw.

[usha]

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ok. 1.if he does have an ace im going to score a decent pot if i 4 out it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're odds of hitting your gutshot are about 5.5 to 1 if played til river. You're calling 200, pot=500, so you're getting 2.5 to 1 from the pot. In order for this call to be EV+, u have to win at least another 600 to break-even. This might be hard to do if villain doesn't have an ace, or a 3rd diamond comes on the turn or river. The fact that the flop has 2 diamonds means that the Qd might not be good, and even if it is, it will kill the action when it hits. This decreases your already shaky implied odds.


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With your stack size, I like a flop call.
I don't think villain must have an A for this to be +EV. If he doesn't have an A (Some kind of weak J or FD) and we hit our draw, we are fine. If we don't hit, but villain shows weakness on turn, we can try and take the pot down. But if we don't hit, and villain makes a strong bet on turn, we should def fold.

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2.he may not have the ace. i may have 10 outs and bluff possibilities. on the turn i knew he was weak. i really should have raised but i wimped out.

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Since he lead so weak on the turn, his likely holdings are now a FD or 2nd pair. You can be pretty sure that your outs are not all clean.


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I agree, he probably has JT+ or FD, so I like a reraise here. Repop to 900 is good, and has a lot of FE.

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3. the river is sheer value bet.i figured he would not call much and also he can't really raise without a straight

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What hands can he call u with that u beat? The only benefit to leading here is it may look like a busted draw.

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Agree. As played you should def check/call. As you are getting value from busted FD or weak J, like JQ or JT. If villain leads weak again, I think a value reraise is fine also.

[JARID]

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I think that was probably his plan jarid, I make a lot of chips like this

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Fair enough and why I advocate a flop bet.

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i assume ham had some kind of plan to make a psb on the end and take him off the hand.

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Again, fair enough, but I dont think most would consider this a "standard line". I wouldn't proceed on this line w/out a read on villian. OP should elaborate if this is the case. Too often I get the crying call I guess. Also, c/c, c/c, psb on the river looks alot like missed flush draw.

On the river I think v-town is good against a J and it serves as a block against a big river bet that would be tough to call. Obv c/snap calling busted flush draws or small pair is fun too.

[hamnegger]

guy had 66

[hERESY]

I see you're a MTT reg hamnegger, and that's the only reason I find this thread somewhat interesting. Do you regularly check/call bluffs in unraised pots? Is this a factor of villains bet sizing? Say for instance you had checked 66 here, are you calling the same sized bet?

I usually play very straight forward, and think this is -ev

[registrar]

Flop is fine. I generally raise when people make these twatty bets and I don't actually have a hand. River is a definite check call as played.