Beginners level question: 5 Card Draw $5.00+.50 SNG

[mattsey9]

While browsing Pokerstars this morning, I noticed that for the first time in my memory there were people actually signed up for a 5 Card Draw SNG. I had always wanted to try one out, so I signed up. When we got to heads up, the following hand occured that had me puzzled, but I wanted to see if my thoughts were correct.

So far, I had gotten to the heads-up portion by playing pretty loose pre-flop. I was raising a lot, and picking off a lot of blinds/limpers. The villian had been playing nothing but premium hands. I know this because everytime someone folded to his raises, he would show his cards. Admittedly, the last time I played draw poker was in the Reagan administration, but this call on his part puzzled me.

The hand history

Tournament: Pot Limit 5 Card Draw (150/300) (converter)

Hero (4680), Seat 3
BB (4320), Seat 5

Hero posts 150. BB posts 300.

Hero is SB with [Td 3h 5c Tc 8d]

Round 1: (450)

<font color="red">Hero raises 660 to 960. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font>
BB takes 3. Hero stands pat.

Hero has [Td 3h 5c Tc 8d]

Round 2: (1920)

<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets 1980. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font>

Pot: (5880)

Results: (in white)

<font color="white">Total pot 5940 | Rake 0

Hero had [Td 3h 5c Tc 8d] and lost with a pair of Tens.
BB had [8h As Qc Jh Ah] and won (5940) with a pair of Aces.
</font>

Cliff's notes: I raise the pot pre-flop, stand pat, bet the pot after the draw and get called by a pair for a goodly portion of his remaining stack.

On the villian's part, was this:

A. An incredibly good read.
B. A horrible call because what could he possibly beat other than a bluff.
C. The standard issue "The wife is yelling at me and I need to get off the computer and it doesn't matter if I lose because I already made the money" call

Questions:

A. What would you need to have in your hand post-draw before you're calling a pot sized bet in this instance?

B. How often is the "stand pat with nothing and pray" gambit I used tried? How often is it successful?

C. I hadn't tried this play during the course of the game, although I had been playing hyper aggressive. He could have thought I was bluffing, but I hadn't shown down anything bluff-like to this point. All of times I had bluffed, nobody had called and everytime I was called I actually had the goods. Is it ever a good idea to make this call?

Thanks for the advice...

[Poisoned]

i wouldnt be stand pat bluffing in a low lvl SnG. they dont fold. but in cash its worked for me some, but i rarely pull it.

standard line for tens would be just raise, draw 3, check behind UI.

[TomTom]

[ QUOTE ]
So far, I had gotten to the heads-up portion by playing pretty loose pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So villain read your game accurately. How many 'pat' hands had you played recently?

If I get fed up with a LAG a pair of aces isn't the worst hand to look him up with.

[bigpooch]

Your opponent played "optimally". OTOH, you played
"suboptimally" because you held a decent pair.

With a medium pair, when HU, you simply draw three since
even one pair is a decent hand when HU. If you held maybe
22 or 33, you could "draw deceptively", but what is the
point? Your opponent could have a pair of fives if he is
playing "optimally". (It turns out he could also have a
pair of fours if he is playing "optimally").

Probably your opponent thought you were making a play and
even if he thought you may not be bluffing a lot, he thought
AA was "too good" to lay down.

Suppose your opponent didn't EVEN play optimally, but folded
a bit more: say he calls with only 90% of the hands he is
"supposed to" according to GT (game theory) if this were a
cash game (which it is not, in any case), but since the
stack sizes are about the same, it won't matter too much.

Predraw, you risk 150+660=810 to win 450
(BTW, how can you make it 960 to go in PL? Seems this is a
NL tourney, not a PL one; normally, you could only call 150
and raise another 600 or 900 to go; also, postdraw you were
able to bet more than the size of the pot)

According to GT, your opponent must AT LEAST call with
450/(810+450) of his hands, but suppose he only calls with
approximately the top 90% of THESE. He would then be at
least calling with 88 or better and some hands that are just
a pair of sevens. [45/(81+45)*0.9 is about 0.321428571 and
when you multiply by C(52,5)=2598960 you get 835380 hands.
There are 198180 hands that are two pairs or better, so that
gives 637200 one pair hands and at 84480 for each rank, you
get 7.5426 ranks or a pair of 88 or just over half of the
hands with a pair of sevens).

Say, he plays only 88 and half of his pair of sevens or
"effectively 7.5 ranks".

After the draw, he automatically checks and after betting
1980 into a 1920 pot, he is to call with a frequency of
1920/(1980+1920) according to GT or about 0.492307692, but
let's say he's a bit of a nit and only calls with the top
90% of THESE. Even then, his calling frequency is about
0.443076923 and if we assume his chances of improvement are
4656/16215 (actually, it IS be a bit higher because it is
MORE LIKELY you have a non-pair type of hand to open, but
the difference won't matter too much because he will be only
calling with about the top 90% of the GT calling hands), he
should be calling with JUST ONE PAIR of the times he does
not improve with a frequency of 0.218746631. That CLEARLY
includes a pair of aces, KKJ+ and you may include some KKT
hands.



Of course, if your opponent were playing "optimally", he
would call with even more hands: turns out he would call
with QQK or better after the draw if the betting amounts
were as above.

Heads up is tough!

I would say that many "regular" players play too tight when
HU or in 3-way situations in draw, because they can't
properly evaluate the strength of hands.

[Big Limpin]

bigpooch,

I feel you may have lost touch with reality. Your toolbox is calibrated to higher stakes fixed limit games, playing against ostensibly "thinking" opponents. This is a $5 PL SnG. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] If you attack these hands with the assumption that your opponents are playing in a GT-dictated manner, you are doing yourself a disservice. They aren't, and its not even close. I'm sorry if that sounds condescending, but i suspect its been so long since you played against true fish , you forget how their thought process works.


mattsey,

IMO, you made a strong play that was perfectly called for in the circumstances, and shows far better EV than the alternative. You got unlucky, don't let that stop you from trying it again. The most likely answer to you question is c) "wifey yelling" / had to piss real bad / fuckit i got 2nd , lets end this already.

The only thing working against you hare is a somewhat LAG image (if he even pays attention!), but everything else is well-aligned for pat bluff...assuming you haven't been doing it already.

Stack sizes are good (have to leave him a full pot bet to call; nothing worse than predraw potting, standing pat, then realizing the effective stacks are leaving you no fold equity). The hands are right (you know he has a better hand than you, but still no monster), and with position on him, you can confirm he has only one big pair when he draws before you.

Good play, bad result [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[mattsey9]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So far, I had gotten to the heads-up portion by playing pretty loose pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So villain read your game accurately. How many 'pat' hands had you played recently?


[/ QUOTE ]

Zero. If I had been making a habit of it, then I would have understood his play a little better.

[mattsey9]

[ QUOTE ]


mattsey,

IMO, you made a strong play that was perfectly called for in the circumstances, and shows far better EV than the alternative. You got unlucky, don't let that stop you from trying it again. The most likely answer to you question is c) "wifey yelling" / had to piss real bad / fuckit i got 2nd , lets end this already.

The only thing working against you hare is a somewhat LAG image (if he even pays attention!), but everything else is well-aligned for pat bluff...assuming you haven't been doing it already.

Stack sizes are good (have to leave him a full pot bet to call; nothing worse than predraw potting, standing pat, then realizing the effective stacks are leaving you no fold equity). The hands are right (you know he has a better hand than you, but still no monster), and with position on him, you can confirm he has only one big pair when he draws before you.

Good play, bad result [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the input. When he called me I knew I was beat, but I definitely didn't expect him to call with a pair.

To be results oriented for a moment, I did come back to win! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Murakawa]

don't (usually) bluff in draw...