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View Poll Results: Should the state feed prisioners in jail?
No, they can make it with private charity 0 0%
yes, Im a jackbooted thug 10 100.00%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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  #281  
Old 11-23-2007, 06:46 AM
Dromar Dromar is offline
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Location: All-in...
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Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Hand 46

Blinds are now 50/100.

(SB)Villain 2570
(BB)Hero 430

Villain posts 50, Hero posts 100. Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Villain raises to 2570 (all-in). Hero calls.

Board: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Villain has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain wins.
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  #282  
Old 11-23-2007, 06:53 AM
Dromar Dromar is offline
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Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Here is a list of all the hands dealt in the tournament, as per request.

Hand 1:
Hero 7c5c
Villain Qs3d

Hand 2:
Hero 3c3d
Villain QsTc
Board Qh8c4d

Hand 3:
Hero Td6c
Villain 9s6h

Hand 4:
Hero 5s5h
Villain 8s4h

Hand 5:
Hero AsTc
Villain Kd9d
Board AhKc6cKh3s

Hand 6:
Hero 4c5s
Villain Qh9h

Hand 7:
Hero Qc9c
Villain 3s5s
Board 8sTsKd

Hand 8:
Hero Js5c
Villain Kh7d
Board Qc8d4d

Hand 9:
Hero 7s3c
Villain 3h2s

Hand 10:
Hero As7d
Villain 9s5d

Hand 11:
Hero Qc6c
Villain Ad8h
Board 6d5cTd

Hand 12:
Hero 9c2c
Villain Kd5h
Board 7d3h7h

Hand 13:
Hero 9d2c
Villain Ts9h

Hand 14:
Hero 5h4s
Villain 9h7d

Hand 15:
Hero KhQh
Villain 7h2d

Hand 16:
Hero 9s5h
Villain Js3c

Hand 17:
Hero AsQs
Villain Ks5d

Hand 18:
Hero Qc2s
Villain 8h6c

Hand 19:
Hero Qd3s
Villain Js3h

Hand 20:
Hero 8c5d
Villain Ah3h

Hand 21:
Hero Ah4h
Villain Kd6s

Hand 22:
Hero 5s6s
Villain Qd5c
Board 7d7c9d

Hand 23:
Hero 8s6h
Villain 7s2d

Hand 24:
Hero 8c6s
Villain 9c8h
Board Ah3d7s

Hand 25:
Hero Jd6d
Villain 8d6s

Hand 26:
Hero 9c6s
Villain QcTh

Hand 27:
Hero 7d6c
Villain 5d5s
Board 3c4hJsJc

Hand 28:
Hero 8d2s
Villain Kc9c

Hand 29:
Hero AcKd
Villain 9d5d
Board Ts5cKs

Hand 30:
Hero Kc3c
Villain Jd2c

Hand 31:
Hero Ks7h
Villain 8c8d

Hand 32:
Hero 4s2c
Villain 6h4h

Hand 33:
Hero 8h5d
Villain Jd5c

Hand 34:
Hero Jc5h
Villain Ks9s

Hand 35:
Hero 8h2c
Villain AhTs

Hand 36:
Hero 9h2d
Villain Ts5d

Hand 37:
Hero 9c5h
Villain Qd5d

Hand 38:
Hero Kc6h
Villain 4s3h

Hand 39:
Hero Qd8h
Villain 6s4h

Hand 40:
Hero Jd8h
Villain Ks4s

Hand 41:
Hero JsTc
Villain Qs8s
Board 4s5d7d

Hand 42:
Hero 8d5c
Villain AsJd

Hand 43:
Hero 9c9d
Villain 6h3h

Hand 44:
Hero 9c5c
Villain Ac4d

Hand 45:
Hero 7h4d
Villain QdQh

Hand 46:
Hero Js8d
Villain Kh3h
Board 6cAsKd9sQd


This doesn't necessarily mean the end of the thread. Specifically, I'm very interested in hand #2, where (at the time of the voting) the vote decisions were very split between all four options (bet, c/f, c/c, c/r). I'm sure there are a couple other hands that may be worth discussing after the fact as well.
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  #283  
Old 11-23-2007, 08:09 AM
chrismystero chrismystero is offline
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Location: Staked.
Posts: 1,111
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Great thread, Dromar.

I, like the vast majority of this thread most likely, would love to see another one of these.'

FWIW, personally, I don't think there was a flaw with the way you structured the thread. I personally think it would be better to vote- then discuss, rather than discuss- then vote. Voting first allows people to give their unbiased opinion on each hand rather than being swayed by the comments of a regular poster. Also, if people vote first and are wrong, I think it is better for them in the Long Run anyways because they can learn from their mistakes by continuing to read the discussion that follows the poll.

I wouldn't be opposed to changing the structure of the thread, just saying I think it's perfect the way it is.

chrismystero
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  #284  
Old 11-23-2007, 10:49 AM
mb6tour mb6tour is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 101
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Nice post Dromar.

I agree that is not an ATC call here.

In the 74o if you do the calculations with +75 instead of +50 you'll get -11EV (and assuming he'll call with 50% you get -32EV), and I think that combined with the fact that the next hand blinds are going up, this hand can be pushed, altought I agree it's a marginal play. Obviously villain had queens so he wasn't going anywhere, but that doesn't matter.

I give it to you that I'm convinced a fold is a good play there.
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  #285  
Old 11-23-2007, 12:18 PM
mb6tour mb6tour is offline
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Posts: 101
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

These 2 last hands are bugging me...

If you think that I'm still discussing it because I can't give up my push move, you're right.

My point is that on a HU match winner takes all so doesn't matter the absolute EV of each play but the increase on your chance to win the tournament.

You guys have a lot more knowledge of HU SnG's so please explain to me why I'm wrong in that case or at all by saying what I did.
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  #286  
Old 11-23-2007, 12:19 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

[ QUOTE ]


(SB)Hero 455
(BB)Villain 2545

Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140.

Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130.

So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold.


As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have your EV calculations wrong .

It should be 75*3/5 + 2/5*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3] ~ -5.6666 which is about -1/5th of the sb or 1/10th of the BB .

If you were interested in how often villain needs to fold to make the push with 7-4 off-suit positive EV , then you would solve :

EV(push) = 75*x + (1-x)*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3]>=0

After simplification of the algebra you should get

201.6666x >= 126.6666
x>= 62.8099173 %
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  #287  
Old 11-23-2007, 12:24 PM
mb6tour mb6tour is offline
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Posts: 101
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


(SB)Hero 455
(BB)Villain 2545

Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140.

Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130.

So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold.


As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have your EV calculations wrong .

It should be 75*3/5 + 2/5*[480*1/3 - 480*2/3] ~ -5.6666 which is about -1/5th of the sb or 1/10th of the BB .

If you were interested in how often villain needs to fold to make the push with 7-4 off-suit positive EV , then you would solve :

EV(push) = 75*x + (1-x)*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3]>=0

After simplification of the algebra you should get

201.6666x >= 126.6666
x>= 62.8099173 %

[/ QUOTE ]

Why it's -480*2/3 on the first equation and -430*2/3 on the second?
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  #288  
Old 11-23-2007, 12:29 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Just a typo , thx for pointing it out .
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  #289  
Old 11-25-2007, 01:30 AM
soop soop is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 154
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

Thanks for posting the hands Dromar. Kudos to the unknown villian - he played very well.

The one thing that surprised me was how well leading OOP worked out for him (see hands 7,27,29). I don't do this much, which probably is a mistake. He won with his meduim strength hands and didn't lose much with bottom pair.

Also, I am def in favor of more of these threads.
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  #290  
Old 11-25-2007, 10:45 AM
Dromar Dromar is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: All-in...
Posts: 995
Default Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for posting the hands Dromar. Kudos to the unknown villian - he played very well.

The one thing that surprised me was how well leading OOP worked out for him (see hands 7,27,29). I don't do this much, which probably is a mistake. He won with his meduim strength hands and didn't lose much with bottom pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like his preflop call in hand 7. I think he got lucky a bit in this match, and hand 7 is an example of that. I'm pretty sure that he wasn't really caring much at first, but then tried a bit harder on the end.


[ QUOTE ]
Also, I am def in favor of more of these threads.

[/ QUOTE ]


My friend says he's not interested in doing another one of these, unfortunately. He didn't really like all the e-mailing and the slow pace. And I don't know if I want to host another one of these, at least not for a while.

Presumably anybody could set one up though. The toughest part is finding a villain, but a 2p2'er with enough discipline not to check the thread would work fine I'm sure. It's really not that difficult. Anybody wanna volunteer to be the next host or villain?
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