double gutter deep vs. Bbuddy 25/50

[king_of_drafts]

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1 vote for shove

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Elaborate plz

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He doesnt think you have the best hand, but he thinks that your opponent will often fold if you push. He thinks that pushing will be +EV when you factor in your equity in the hand when called.

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whoa, interesting...

[VENGEANCE]

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1 vote for shove

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Elaborate plz

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He doesnt think you have the best hand, but he thinks that your opponent will often fold if you push. He thinks that pushing will be +EV when you factor in your equity in the hand when called.

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whoa, interesting...

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yeah, but the +EV to factor in when getting called is only 16% which is pretty slim, so he still has to fold a lot here to make it equitable. The flop was so dry that he like always calls here when he bets out 3k, unless he's bluffing, which would mean he would have floated oop with air. Since he called your preflop threebet oop, his range is at least a pair by the turn(he doesn't have like QJ, JT). He won't be folding a pair often enough on the turn after betting 3k.

[luegofuego]

wow at doing anything but folding

[BLdSWtTRs]

Could be wrong with the math here but you need your semibluff to work about 4/11 of the time to make it profitable and you have to consider the metagame boost so I would estimate the number being 33%.

So those saying its not even close are wrong. Its very close between folding and pushing.

Is he bluffing more than a 1/3 of the time?

[king_of_drafts]

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Could be wrong with the math here but you need your semibluff to work about 4/11 of the time to make it profitable and you have to consider the metagame boost so I would estimate the number being 33%.

So those saying its not even close are wrong. Its very close between folding and pushing.

Is he bluffing more than a 1/3 of the time?

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I have no clue. I haven't played with him much. Didn't you guys play every day back on party?

[BLdSWtTRs]

He might play you different than me.

If this is me I push but thats because my hand range is going to be a lot weaker than yours and he knows this.

So he's going to bluff the turn a lot less if your range is stronger.

[iRock]

Im on the shoving wagon

[MDMA]

BLD, your math works out ( (x*6966)-(1-x)(0.182x22091) = 0 ), but I don't get how the fact that us pushing here, i.e essentially leading to us getting paid off more often in the future, which in turns just mean that we get a changed bluffing to VB-ratio, could in turn lead to it being okay for us to effectively make a -ev play (by this I mean you saying 33% would be alright).

That simply doesn't make any sense to me. I guess looking at it from a exploitive play-point of view, someone calling too much is generally losing more than someone who is folding too much, at least so with very deep stacks, this can of course be proven mathematically.

All I'm saying is that from a game theory optimal point of view, making an -ev play is never ever correct really, the whole idea of PR/deception etc is of no consequence in that sense.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think he means that if BB calls here with a strong hand, he'll see that we're pushing draws in these spots and will dramatically change his calling frequency. We will then be able to exploit that in the future i.e. getting paid off more when we make big hands against him.

[MDMA]

Meh, thats what I wrote..it only changes our frequency of bluffing..which in turn will mean that our VBs gain us more, and our bluffs gain us less. The only thing I can see that is the inherent advantage to this is that game theoretically, with deep stacks, there are a lot of situations where someone who calls too much is losing way more than someone who folds too much.