Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[PantsOnFire]

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Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

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Thanks for your comments but nitty=successful.

Also, my advice is usually generic for the simple reason that we don't have all day to cover the various scenarios. For example, I would mostly fold a hand like K3s in the SB but I would play it in certain situations and/or against certain players.

It also happens that the SB was an area I have been working on for the last several months. I now actually show a profit from the SB (before cost of posting) in MTT play.

[KCW12]

I used to limp almost any two cards from the SB if the pot was not raised and there was at least one limper (I play mostly STTs). After following some advice in the STT forum, I've started throwing away junk like K3, etc. even when getting good odds, and I think my results have improved because of it. Now, the only hands I will limp from the SB that I wouldn't play normally are small pairs, suited connectors and one-gappers, Ax suited, and occasionally any two broadway cards.

[Gonso]

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Firstly let me say I think you guys (Gonso and POF) are pretty good posters. But your cases are weak here. Try looking at this spot quantitatively, it's not that hard to return a mere sb. Just don't be so damn nitty.

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Can you expand on this a little bit? 'Hey, I'll just complete the SB because it's so cheap' isn't really quantitative. Second, if you feel it's nitty, fine. Perhaps my occasional raise with this hand suits you better?

And to clarify, it's not the cost of completing the SB that concerns me. It's the additional cost of the having to play a suited trash hand OOP, especially when you make a marginal second-best hand as these kind of hands tend to do.

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When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s

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76s suited plays immensely better than K3s does, and is actually a decent hand to call or 3-bet with here. It's harder to be dominated, and you can hit a flop pretty hand with a hand like this.

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I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

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You can quantify this if the call were for all of your chips, but when talking about regular sized stacks you have to take playability into consideration to call. Tougher players will make it harder for you to extract value of of anything you make.

[jay_shark]

If your hand isn't strong enough to raise in the small blind , then it probably should be dumped .

It's a limped pot so even if you hit your flush (almost never) , you aren't likely to win a monster pot anyway . Two-thirds of the time , your hole cards do not pair the board and you'll be forced to give up the pot (unless you occasionally bluff) . When you do hit about one-third of the time , you'll have to put more money into the pot to find out if it's best .

So your true odds are not really 5:1 . It may be something like 5:2 or 5:3 .

[Poker Clif]

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When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

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(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

[PantsOnFire]

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When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

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(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

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This is not a question of odds or mathematics. There is only one scenario where it would be. And that scenario is if there was no more betting, or no more decisions. Sure if you are getting 15:1 on a call and can see all five board cards and don't have to put any more money in the pot, then go ahead, it's probably a correct call with lots of hands.

However, these scenarios usually involve flop play with a significant stack left behind. This is where the trouble can begin.

Take your K3s. A perfect flop might be KK3 or K33. How often does this happen? And if it does, there could be another K out there. And if he pairs his kicker, which is surely better than your kicker, you will lose your stack.

Another really great flop might be a K high flush. However, a A high flush is going to stack you and even a bare A in that suit has a good chance of beating you.

Okay so those are the ideal flops. What about the really good flops like KK9? Well again, any K will likely have you outkicked and stack you. 99 will stack you.

How about a good flop of K 9 2 on a dry board? Any trouble heading your way here?

Here is a piece of advice I was given a while ago by an expert player. Try not to put yourself into a position where you are faced with a difficult decision. I know that as we get experience we say things like "I'll just see this flop and go from there" with trash hands like K3s. And you know what? A lot of the time, you will be putting yourself in a position of having to make a difficult decision.

[PantsOnFire]

Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

[futuredoc85]

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Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

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the entirety of this post is garbage

[jay_shark]

I think calling with k-3s depends a lot on the odds you will receive on a flush draw and your implied odds if you hit . If the limper has a tendency of making larger than normal flop bets , then being suited is pretty much worthless .

If he always gives you close to the right odds to see a turn card (when you're on a f.d) then it's a good idea to see a flop with it .

[Poker Clif]

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Just one last note on the philosophical side of things.

Do you know how and why poker can be profitable for a player? The number one reason is most likely that other players do not fold enough. It's in practically every poker book written. Tight is right. Wait for good hands and play them strong.

However, in practice, most players simply don't have the patience. They think they do, but they don't. And so these players will play K3s from the SB "just to see the flop for good odds". These are the exact players that the good, tight, successful players count on to be in a pot.

Think about it. If a player can't fold K3s preflop, is he going to be able to fold if a K hits on the flop? I say not bloody likely.

It's up to you to decide which player you are going to be.

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the entirety of this post is garbage

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Thank you for your post, and for your concern.

I have no problem folding, and I keep an eye on my see-the-flop percentage, just to make sure I'm not getting out of line.

There are certainly times that I get up in the 20s, but that's usually when there are so many limpers that I'm getting odds to play low pairs, any suited connectors, or to go with a straight or flush draw.

If anything, I tend to a be a little too tight. Basically, I was trying to find out if I was out of line NOT playing certain hands in micro donkaments where 7 of nine poeple seeing the flop is not exactly rare.